First Base ADP Market Report: 2/18/2021

With drafts beginning to ramp up, it is important to monitor where players are being draft on a regular basis. Throughout draft season, I will be doing that work for you with regular updates on the Average Draft Position on NFBC up until Opening Day. You can find all the pieces in this series here.

Top 100 Players Rising

None

 

Top 100 Players Falling

Jose Abreu (-7.14)- It is a bit weird to see the reigning MVP to drop in the ADP, but I think there is some fear that he will regress back to his usual production after a monster 2020. I don’t know if that is a bad thing though. The White Sox lineup is stacked which means he could easily be a 30+ homer, 110+ RBI bat with a good average for a slugger. If he continues to drop as we start seeing pitching rise, then I will be buying. 

 

Top 200 Players Rising

Rhys Hoskins (+12.28)- Hoskins raised up the ADP over the last month in what seems to be a correction from some pretty big drops in the ADP from earlier in draft season. While he posted a video of taking batting practice and it sounds like there is a chance he could be ready for spring training which makes it sound like the start of the season is definitely in the cards for him, until we see him playing in spring training games, it is hard to push him up too far. That being said, once he is on the field, his ADP could rise 25+ spots or more.  

 

Top 200 Players Falling

Dominic Smith (-21.28)- The fall of Dom Smith in the ADP with the concerns he will lose playing time without a DH in the National league. However, I believe (as do recent rumors) that the DH will return in the NL this year. His StatCast data was great with an xBA of .304, a barrel percentage of 13.3% and a hard hit percentage of 46.7%. He’s a good bet for 25+ homers and a decent average with the multi-positional eligibility. 

Ryan Mountcastle (-14.27)- Mountcastle continues to drop in the ADP due to some red flags in his profile. His O-Swing and swinging strike rate and while his BABIPs in the minors have usually been somewhat high, there is no way he can maintain what he did in his small sample in 2020. That being said, for a power hitter, he makes good contact and he has hit at every level through the minors and in his short sample in the Majors. His eligibility is nice and he has an everyday role in Baltimore, so I am beginning to really like the price. 

Miguel Sanó (-10.16)- Sano’s drop in ADP likely has to do with his streaky profile. He hit .284 with seven home runs in August and then six home runs with a .178 batting average in September. He has the ability to hit 40+ home runs in a full season, but you have to be able to cushion that batting average downside. 

 

Top 300 Players Rising

Ryan McMahon (+16.54)- With Arenado leaving town, McMahon seems like the likely beneficiary in terms of playing time. He could platoon there, but it would be the strong side of the platoon at worst. Best case scenario is that he gets full playing time as the cleanup hitter for the Rockies. He reportedly has retooled his swing which could allow him to get to pitches he was unable to last season. His positional eligibility is fantastic. There are a lot of reasons to start buying back in on the former top prospect that the Rockies were all in on coming into his disappointing 2020. 

 

Top 300 Players Falling

Jake Cronenworth (-48.41)- Cronenworth’s drop in ADP has everything to do with all the talent they have brought in this offseason. The signing of Ha-seong Kim and Jurickson Profar are definitely troubling, but I think he will find enough playing time as a super utility guy to return on the investment on a player going outside the top 200. 

Rowdy Tellez (-30.91)- Tellez is dropping for the same type of reason as Cronenworth, the addition of Marcus Semien. That being said, the Blue Jays are awfully right handed with the only other regular being Cavan Biggio, so he should get time on the strong side of a platoon. We know that there is a ton of power in the bat and he would be an injury away from being a full time player in this lineup, so he is worth the gamble if he continues to drop.