2021 Review: Hitter Average Distance FB+LD Decliners

Two weeks ago, I published a series of posts diving into average distance of fly balls and line drives (ADFBLD). Somehow, I forgot to actually complete the series by discussing the decliners versus 2020. I shared the surgers, so now let’s return to this xHR/FB equation variable by discussing the hitters who lost the most ADFBLD over a minimum of 30 flies + liners in both 2020 and 2021.

Average Distance FB+LD Decliners
Player 2020 HR/FB 2021 HR/FB 2020 Avg Dist FB+LD 2021 Avg Dist FB+LD Avg Dist FB+LD Diff
Elvis Andrus 9.7% 2.4% 307 273 -34
Gary Sanchez 23.8% 19.0% 323 289 -33
Jared Walsh 28.1% 25.4% 322 291 -31
J.T. Realmuto 23.4% 14.7% 315 285 -30
Jose Trevino 9.1% 6.9% 306 276 -30
Colin Moran 27.8% 16.1% 310 280 -30
Mike Moustakas 17.4% 9.4% 308 280 -29
Ronald Acuna Jr. 32.6% 24.2% 325 298 -27
Juan Soto 36.1% 24.4% 322 295 -27
Maikel Franco 11.8% 10.7% 298 273 -25
Ryan McMahon 24.3% 16.0% 320 296 -24
Niko Goodrum 11.9% 13.4% 308 283 -24
J.D. Davis 18.8% 14.7% 291 266 -24
Rio Ruiz 18.0% 9.7% 308 283 -24
Sean Murphy 22.6% 14.8% 312 288 -24
Eloy Jimenez 31.1% 21.7% 306 282 -23
Population Average 15.0% 13.7% 291 287 -4

First, you’ll notice that the average of the entire population of hitters on my spreadsheet actually suffered a dip in ADFBLD for 2021 compared to 2020. Yes, some of it likely had to do with the new ball, but it was the 2020 mark that was the outlier, as ADFBLD had remained in the mid 280s from 2016 to 2019. No idea what happened in 2020, perhaps it was just small sample randomness and the fact that missed the colder weather in the earlier part of the season that didn’t happen.

Amazingly, of the 16 hitters on here, 15 of them suffered a decline in HR/FB rate as well. It just goes to show how important this variable, even though it’s fairly obvious hitting balls further is going to result in more home runs!

I actually had to double check to make sure my pivot table didn’t get screwed up, because I couldn’t believe Elvis Andrus posted an ADFBLD above 300 in 2020. But he did! I have no idea where that came from, as he had never exceeded 280 going back to 2015. Probably a small sample size thing as it came in just about a sixth of the flies + liners that he hit in 2021.

This is a big deal for Gary Sanchez, as his only contribution for fantasy owners, and heck, maybe even the Yankees, is his power, namely his home run power. Going back to 2016, this was his lowest ADFBLD and just the second time he has posted a mark below 300. As a result, he posted his lowest xHR/FB rate as well. It’s a scary sign for a guy who hasn’t hit above .232 since 2017. He’s still just 29, so we wouldn’t expect his power to deteriorate, but the Yankees are going to lose patience if his power wanes again.

Jared Walsh managed to offset his ADFBLD loss by upping his Barrel FB%, but he has still outperformed his xHR/FB rate for two straight seasons. He has also significantly outperformed his xWOBA, but it’s far too early in his career to claim he’ll continue to do so consistently. As such, he’s a major regression candidate, but I’m not going to say bust, because that all depends on how your leaguemates value him, which is not something I could possibly predict.

J.T. Realmuto sat in the same boat as Andrus, in that 2020 was the first time he posted an ADFBLD over 300 feet. In 2021, he returned to his previous level, so this isn’t so much a decline to worry about, just a return to normalcy after a weird season. He remains a top catcher option, mostly because of his steals and playing time. But it’s anyone’s guess when he’ll decide to stop running.

Ronald Acuna Jr.’s ADFBLD skyrocketed in 2020, but it came back to Earth in 2021 before he went down with a knee injury. It’s still a strong mark though and well above the league average. The open question now is how his performance is affected by a very serious torn ACL. At the very least, you have to wonder if he’ll continue to try stealing bases at the same pace.

Juan Soto’s ADFBLD history looks nearly identical to Acuna’s. He went nuts in 2020 and it caused many fantasy owners and projection systems to wayyyyyy overforecast his home runs in 2022, but small sample shenanigans once again proved they shouldn’t be trusted. His xHR/FB rates actually point to a hitter deserving of low-20% HR/FB rate marks, but I’m guessing that he’ll have several years of high 20% HR/FB rate marks and perhaps even another 30%+ mark over his career. He’s still just 23, which is insane!

What the heck happened to J.D. Davis?! He went from posting league average ADFBLD marks to well below average. In fact, it was lower than Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s mark, which finished with an average two feet greater! Amazingly, even with the low ADFBLD, he still posted a 22% xHR/FB rate thanks to an elite 40% Barrel FB%. It’s always weird to find a hitter who has hit a high rate of barrels, but posted a lower ADFBLD. That essentially means he lives at the extremes, either barreling the ball, or totally missing it and hitting it poorly. I have no idea what that means for Davis’ future, but he has posted xHR/FB rates over 20% for three straight seasons, so I don’t care all that much how he has gotten there.

Sean Murphy’s ADFBLD has declined during each of his subsequent seasons since his 2019 debut, which unsurprisingly, has meant that his xHR/FB rates have fallen as well. If I had to guess, I’d peg his true talent closer to his 2021 season than his previous years given the difficult of maintaining an ADFBLD above 300, and the fact his Barrel FB% rates have been solid, but unspectacular. His next challenge is getting his BABIP into respectable level so he isn’t killing his owners’ batting averages.

After strong and stable ADFBLD marks during his first two seasons, Eloy Jimenez’ mark fell to below league average in 2021. He also continued to rarely pull his fly balls. It’s very possible, maybe even likely, that the drop in ADFBLD was due to the injury he suffered and that sapped his power. But he still managed an 18.1% xHR/FB rate, so his power didn’t completely disappear. I’d think a fully healthy Jimenez will improve his HR/FB rate this year, but I wouldn’t expect another mark above 30% again without some good fortune.





Mike Podhorzer is the 2015 Fantasy Sports Writers Association Baseball Writer of the Year. He produces player projections using his own forecasting system and is the author of the eBook Projecting X 2.0: How to Forecast Baseball Player Performance, which teaches you how to project players yourself. His projections helped him win the inaugural 2013 Tout Wars mixed draft league. Follow Mike on Twitter @MikePodhorzer and contact him via email.

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idliamin
2 years ago

JD Davis suffered a hand injury the first week of the season that just never got better. Turned out he had a torn ligament, and he had surgery last fall.