Fantasy Baseball Chat

3:00
Wes: What’s your thought on fringey SVs guys in the new normal? Lugo, D. castillo, etc. Closer to SVs bc chaos or farther from SVs bc teams will trust their guys?

3:01
Jeff Zimmerman: The trade deadline might also be in play. Maybe some teams  may trade for a reliever immediately.

3:01
Jeff Zimmerman: Also, if 7-8 games a week, the backups with get more chances.

3:02
Jeff Zimmerman: If the season starts, it’ll be a fun variable.

3:02
Powder Blue: What Baseball article have you enjoyed the most over the past month not by a fangraphs writer

3:03
Jeff Zimmerman: I like the series Eno Sarris did on the bad players who destroyed a single team.

3:03
Matt: With MLB putting out more and more information about playing this season in spring training or neutral fields, should we  change how we value Rockies hitters and improve the outlook for their pitchers (assuming a season is played)?

3:04
Jeff Zimmerman: Wait until games actually get scheduled.

3:05
Jeff Zimmerman: It’s going to interesting to see how everything works out.

3:05
Siri: keep hiuria or moose in OBP/SLG h2h category league?

3:05
Jeff Zimmerman: Hiura

3:05
Jaffa: Can you envision more 2-3 IP stints from innings capped IPs? Like maybe Pearson and Howard start with big lg squads but pitch 2-4 IP an outing? Every game becomes sort of piecemeal?

3:06
Jeff Zimmerman: For sure. I think it might be where SP’s get piggy-backed for 3 IP each game and the 2nd starter gets the win.

3:07
Punk in Drublic: Joining a 12 team NL only auction league as an expansion team that has been going for years, the league allows up to 15 keepers (and any minor leaguers can be kept indefinitely until they qualify for ROY). with starting a roster from scratch i am at a significant disadvantage having no keepers for at least this year, & with nearly all minor leaguers except the guys who were drafted by major league teams in 2019 already on a roster what do you think is the best approach for this year, attempt to contend or build for the future? I am thinking going stars n scrubs and then fill my bench with 2019 MLB draft picks, and trade stars around the deadline for more young assets.

3:09
Jeff Zimmerman: I’d start trying to make trades before the draft to see who to target for the best value. Also, you need to pick up players others teams may want (e.g. SP for this year’s contenters, young hitters for those in a rebuild). Just try to get tradable talent to speed up the rebuild. Don’t expect to contend this year … sorry.

3:09
Jeff Zimmerman: Have fun wheeling and dealing

3:09
Ben: Hey Jeff, loved your last article. Of this group of 2B-eligible guys, which do you see panning out and which do you see being busts in 2020 (assuming a full season is hypothetically played): Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel, Garrett Hampson, Brandon Lowe, Scott Kingery, Nick Solak, Tommy Edman?

3:10
Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks, it took a while to write.

3:10
Jeff Zimmerman: Like: Biggio (AVG sink) and Gurriel

3:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Iffy: Kingery, Solak, and Edman (they need playing time).

3:11
Jeff Zimmerman: Ignoring: Lowe and Hampson

3:11
Keyser Söze: Have you given up on Chris Archer or still can’t quit him?

3:13
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m off now. I like him for K’s as I found low ERA and WHIP SP’s cheap early (e.g. Morton and Greinke). Now that Archer isn’t K’ing batters, he’s useless.

3:13
TB: Any big shifts in upcoming pitching ranking? I’m guessing someone like McCullers or Ryu might get a bumb from a short season

3:13
Jeff Zimmerman: More of the guys who were hurt like Rich Hill

3:13
John: where would you rank carlos martinez among SPs assuming we get 80-100 game season?

3:14
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s down for me based the know (can’t stay healthy) and unknown (what is his role).

3:14
Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve never considered him in any draft so far.

3:15
Roy: Do you play MLB the show? I haven’t played baseball video games in at least a decade but just bought the 2019 edition. Open to advice!

3:15
Jeff Zimmerman: Nope. I play various shooters with my son and that’s it.

3:15
Tommy: Do you think Corbin Burnes will be in the Milwaukee rotation this year? Sneaky pick?

3:16
Jeff Zimmerman: I like him a lot. He needs to get the walks and home runs under control

3:16
Short season – Sanchez: Does a shortened season improve the value of regularly banged-up players like Gary Sanchez, who don’t have to endure a full season, or does it hurt them because missing a few weeks is a greater % of the season?

3:17
Jeff Zimmerman: They are the same for me. Everyone will need to read on how some teams will be handling some players. It’s just impossible to know right now.

3:17
sowell: Jeff, thanks for hanging out today. My mixed 12-tm H2H league went ahead and proceeded with our draft two weeks ago. I had four stud bats as keepers and luckily was able to draft Paddack with my first pick in the draft. My offense is stacked. But my pitching staff is a bunch of #3s and upside guys after my stud Padre: Ryu, Boyd, Maeda, Heaney, Lamet, Wood, Stripling, Alcantara and Gore. I am considering dropping some of these guys and adding a bunch of RPs who qualify as SPs to try to win ratios each week, while also possibly vulturing some Ws and Saves. What do you think?

3:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Not a horrible strategy. Don’t drop those starters, you should be able to trade them. Maybe a 2:1 for Hendriks (SP qualified).

3:20
Guest: Our draft already happened. I drafted B McKay, but I see he was sent to the minors. What are your 2020 thoughts of him? Should I drop him, 12 team Roto league.

3:20
Jeff Zimmerman: Teams moved players around to save money with their rosters.

3:21
Jeff Zimmerman: Hold McKay since he should be back on the team.

3:21
Guest: I already drafted Stripling, with possible 6 man rotations this season, are you high on him? Means and/or Hill over him?

3:21
Jeff Zimmerman: If Stripling starts, I’m all in.

3:21
Big Tuna: Any chance of doing a minor league options article again now that MLB is talking about expanding rosters? Could be some guys getting a new lease on fantasy life.

3:22
Jeff Zimmerman: I think it would just be guesswork right until the exact rules are known

3:22
Chucky: Civale, Cease, May and Burnes….Please rank

3:22
Jeff Zimmerman: Civale, Burnes, May, Cease

3:23
Pat’s Bat: How should leagues and platforms handle positional eligibility this year?  Just prorate the number of games played?  Otherwise leagues with 20 game eligibility might be in trouble.

3:24
Jeff Zimmerman: Usually it’s 20 games or max (e.g. in majors for 15 at 1B). There will just not be as much position flexiblity going into next season.

3:24
Carl: How do you value Dustin May and Nate Pearson in a dynasty league? Foundation pieces, or readily replaceable?

3:25
Jeff Zimmerman: They are great bets to contribute. I like Pearson more this season because he’ll be Toronto’s #1 or #2 as soon as he’s called up.

3:25
Ben: I’d be interested to hear more why you’re down on Lowe. Obviously there are red flags, like his K% and really high BABIP, but statcast liked his batted ball data (.514 SLG vs .507 xSLG; .359 wOBA vs .347 xwOBA). Do you just not trust him to make enough contact?

3:26
Jeff Zimmerman: 53% K% vs LHP.

3:27
Jeff Zimmerman: I just think he’ll be a platoon bat

3:28
Jeff Zimmerman: His StatCast numbers do have him ranked OK in my StatCast only projections: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HFYP4cN7jjXck4j0D6s–TJ40aEy1g…

3:28
John W: Hi Jeff – thanks for doing these chats!

3:28
Jeff Zimmerman: You’re welcome

3:28
John W: Oh, and a question: I traded Dylan Carlson at the beginning of the calendar year for Nick Solak, thinking I’d get more bang for my buck with Solak in 2020 than Carlson. How badly will I regret this deal this year/next? Seems like Carlson keeps getting a lot of helium (deserved?).

3:29
Jeff Zimmerman: At the end of this year, probably not much. In three years, probably much regret.

3:29
Guest: Hoerner or Rodgers

3:30
Jeff Zimmerman: Hoerner. I beleive the Cubs want him to be good. I have zero clue what the Rockies want.

3:30
Guest: If all games are played in Arizona this season, in an 12 team auction draft, what value would you give to S Oberg? He should have decent numbers and will hopefully get the Closer job early on.

3:31
Jeff Zimmerman: late round (20 or later) add. I don’t want to count on a backup closer.

3:31
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m running a little low on questions, feel free to fire more in.

3:32
Laffey Tuffy: If the MLB doesn’t have a 2020 season, who would you rather have for 2021: Kwang Hyun Kim or Hyeon Jong Yang?

3:32
Jeff Zimmerman: Kim, I have no idea how to value Yang right now.

3:32
Chucky: Any chance to get you to guess, how minor league arms such as Gore, Whitley, Devi Garcia type et. al.’s will fare with the shortened yet crunched season?

3:33
Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. The plan right now is just for MLB to start but nothing on the minors.

3:34
Jeff Zimmerman: They might be with the major leaguers if the team thinks they’ll help them win.

3:34
Jeff Zimmerman: Might see who the teams first bring back.

3:34
Guest: Thoughts on A Riley

3:35
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not interested in him. His second half was miserable.

3:35
C: How is fangraphs doing? Are the writers suported?

3:35
Jeff Zimmerman: Fine

3:36
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m empty of questions, if I don’t have more come in, I’ll close it down.

3:37
Chucky: Who’s the best player, no one knows about heading into this maybe season?

3:38
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m going a little deep here but Jaylin Davis of the SF Giants.

3:39
Jeff Zimmerman: He struggled in a MLB stint (.493 OPS)

3:40
Jeff Zimmerman: But had 35 HR, 10 SB, and a .300 AVG combined with 3 MiLB teams.

3:40
Jeff Zimmerman: SF brought in some yets but I like this guy.

3:40
sowell: Counter to Chucky’s question: what elite-level guys are you worried might regress or come back to earth to some degree?

3:40
Jeff Zimmerman: Alonso

3:41
Jeff Zimmerman: I just don’t see a repeat and I’m not paying the price for it.

3:41
flipmodebok: outside of prospects like Robert and White who have MLB contracts, will teams lean towards keeping their prospects down on the farm to avoid burning a year in a shortened season?

3:42
Jeff Zimmerman: The rules are going to key here. I think they wait the 2 weeks (might be shorter) and get them up if ready.

3:42
Jeff Zimmerman: But it will be key if the team thinks they will be in contention

3:43
Jeff Zimmerman: Teams like Detroit will likely keep their pitching prospects down for another year.

3:43
Donnie baseball: Who do you like better Jose Ramirez or Alex Bergman now and in the future.?

3:43
Jeff Zimmerman: In a redraft roto league with stolen bases: Ramirez

3:43
Jeff Zimmerman: All other formats: Bregman

3:43
Aceman: Any thoughts on Jo Adell as player and ETA this year

3:44
Jeff Zimmerman: Going with the above answer, soon. I think the Angels want to contend and he can help.

3:44
flipmodebok: any international standouts from this year’s class to keep an eye on for those that are in FYPD leagues? doesn’t look like there is a jasson, puason tier this year.

3:45
Jeff Zimmerman: I really don’t know … sorry.

3:45
Guest: What would a full healthy season from Buxton look like?

3:45
Jeff Zimmerman: In bubble wrap.

3:46
Jeff Zimmerman: I think there can be 25/25 pontential and he could be a game changer if he does stay of the IL

3:46
Chucky: Why is everyone down on Adam Civale? Albeit a SSS in 2019, his numbers were impeccable. I see he’s like the 70th SP off the boards. What am I missing?

3:46
Jeff Zimmerman: I think everyone is worried about the playing time.

3:46
Donnie baseball: Will players like Franco from Tampa Bay take longer to be brought up because of the shorten or no season?

3:47
Jeff Zimmerman: As I stated above, if he can help the Rays, I think they’ll be up.

3:47
Chucky: Thoughts on two Cleveland OFers…Mercaado and Franmil. Will Franmil’s defense weaken their pitching?

3:47
Jeff Zimmerman: Most teams have a bad outfielder they are hiding.

3:48
Jeff Zimmerman: I believe his bat will outwiegh the defense.

3:48
Shane: Hi do you see any chance Joey Votto gets close to his pre-2018 numbers.  I think people were expecting a bounce back last year that did not happen.  I know age is against him, but he fell off so quick and so hard.  Thank you

3:48
Jeff Zimmerman: None. Pitcher’s aren’t afraid of him so they just attack him.

3:49
Jeff Zimmerman: The IBB have gone from 20 to 6 to 2.

3:50
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s going to be 36 with just 27 home runs hit over the past 2 seasons.

3:50
Laffey Tuffy: For the KBO, Statiz has stats similar to the ones that Fangraphs does like average velocity, but it is rather confusing to try and read when translated into English by google

3:50
Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks.

3:50
Matt: After years of hype and failed expectations and injuries, I wonder if the consensus has gone too far in the other direction with Carlos Correa. The guy is still just 25! Do you think there’s potentially still another level to his game?

3:51
Jeff Zimmerman: Not really. I’m not a fan of constant back issues.

3:51
Jeff Zimmerman: He’s not going to steal bases anymore.

3:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Best case scinerio he is a 5th to 6th round value.

3:52
flipmodebok: is 2nd half Schwarber a bat to believe in? i’ve got some shares of him in leagues and looking to own him across the board this year in  both roto and h2h.

3:52
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, the key was that he wasn’t horrible vs LHP

3:53
Jeff Zimmerman: If he plays most of the time, he’s a great late power source.

3:53
Chucky: Are you on the Luis Robert bandwagon?

3:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I was but I got too many shares so I’ve backed off some

3:53
Jeff Zimmerman: I didn’t want him to struggle an tank all my teams.

3:54
Donnie baseball: What pitchers do you see breaking out and out pacing their draft position?

3:54
Jeff Zimmerman: So many nice options. I just wrote up Alec Mills.

3:54
Jeff Zimmerman: Alex Wood is going way too late.

3:55
Jeff Zimmerman: I’m a Dobnack fan

3:55
Aceman: Any chance Jose Leclerc can limit some of those walks and step up on reliever tiers

3:55
Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t count on it.

3:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Pay for the past and hope he improves

3:56
Ace: Does Danny Jansen have any potential as a top 10 fantasy catcher?

3:56
Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. He started to show some signs later.

3:57
Jeff Zimmerman: I like him as a #2 with chance for upside.

3:57
Jeff Zimmerman: That’s it for today and I’ll be back next week. -Jeff





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

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