Fantasy Baseball Chat With Jeff Zimmerman by Jeff Zimmerman January 5, 2021 11:00 Kyle Escobar: Dom Smith or Matt Olson in a dynasty league? Thanks much. 11:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Olson right now. I’m really worried about Smith’s playing time over the next few years. 11:01 Rob: Jeff, what is your outlook for Jonathan Villar? Assuming he signs with a team, do you envision him as a utility bench player or a starter that could reward those that draft him? 11:02 Jeff Zimmerman: He’s undraftable for me until he signs. No one can guess his role, so until it is known, assume the worst. 11:02 Ando: Who are some of the later “closers” that are being drafted that you have some faith in drafting? 11:03 Jeff Zimmerman: Martin with the Braves. 11:03 Jeff Zimmerman: Holland with the Royals 11:03 purplemini: Justin Upton is a) victim of small sample size b) on a two year, downward trajectory due to age and injury c) all of the above. 11:04 Jeff Zimmerman: b and he did try to rework his swing late in the season. 11:05 Tom: Was Kentel hurt last year?? 11:05 Jeff Zimmerman: Not that I have read 11:05 Bandits: Setting up my rankings for a startup dynasty league and I’m unsure of what to do with Yordan Alvarez. Right now, I have him as an early 3rd-rounder (14-team league). Is the risk too high for such an early pick? 11:06 Jeff Zimmerman: It would be for me. I’m not rostering a DH-only with two recent knee surgeries. 11:06 Kyle Escobar: Wander get unleashed as a full time player sometime this year? Lux have a shot at a full time position? Thanks. 11:07 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe on Franco, but sure. No on Lux 11:07 Moose_Bolton: Do you change team names every year? Or stick with the same one? 11:07 Jeff Zimmerman: I usually change or don’t change it at all. 11:08 Baseball Yeti: Should 10 category H2H have a different Hitter/Pitcher OLS than standard roto? Seems like a big week from an Ace can go a long way towards 2-3 categories across all the 1-week sample size matchups 11:08 Jeff Zimmerman: Not really IMO. Just draft the aces. Also, if a hitter has a 3 HR game, they are going to carry team. 11:09 Sonny: How are you evaluating prospects ahead of a MiLB draft in any leagues where you have them? In a deep dynasty where 85% of all top 100 lists aren’t available how would you throw your darts? 11:10 Jeff Zimmerman: No idea really. I’d go in with the assumption nothing changed but be ready to pivot on a dime if there is any new info. 11:10 Baseball Yeti: if someone is looking for an edge what is the biggest inefficiency you see or hear about in redraft home leagues? 11:10 Jeff Zimmerman: Home town bias. Let everyone else bid up the home town boys. 11:10 Guest: How are you adjusting pitching in a quality starts league? Is it as simple as moving up pitchers who have a track record of going deep, or are there any younger pitchers ready for a larger workload? 11:11 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m looking into IP/S in September. Who could go late into games. 11:12 Jeff Zimmerman: I expect all pitchers to have a short leash in April and May, but then start to go longer. 11:12 Greg: What’s your Plesac ERA/WHIP projection for 2021? How many $ do you think he’s worth on draft day (assuming $260/team). 11:13 Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t created one beyond the standard Steamer one yet. Sorry 11:13 Power cat: In a shallow 10-team yahoo league without MI/CI (very shallow!!) would you significantly prioritize SP > bats since waiver wire replacement level should be incredibly high for hitters? Auction calculator still makes bats look attractive if one assumes 60-67% of budget to hitters 11:14 Jeff Zimmerman: I would grab several aces and then ignore the positions for a while 11:14 Power cat: How concerned are you about hitters who struggled from not having video like JDM/Yelich going into 2021? 11:15 Jeff Zimmerman: Some, but it’s tough to know the true effects. 11:16 Jeff Zimmerman: If I do anything, I’ll just revert back to the players 2020 projection. 11:16 Reuben: Last season I ran a best ball WAR league for 8 friends and family. 40 man rosters, prorated 700 best PA per position and best 1400 innings. “Best” was determined by WAR/PA or WAR/IP. Any services that do something similar? 11:16 Jeff Zimmerman: None that I know, sorry. 11:16 >this guy<: If you were going to cut one of equal price Rhys Hoskins or Eugenio Suarez, who goes? 11:17 Jeff Zimmerman: Hoskins. There are a ton of serviceable first basemen. 11:17 Dback: How interested are you in Varsho? Do you think he can get the projected 10ish steals? 11:18 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m extremely interested. With so many bad catchers, he’s worth a shot. 11:18 >this guy<: Is there a home for Didi G anywhere? 11:18 Jeff Zimmerman: Cleveland once they trade Lindor 11:19 Erik: Ha-Seong signing with Padres is how bad for Croneworth? 150 ADP or so seems high for Croneworth if he’s starting 4 times a week and batting 7th… 11:19 Jeff Zimmerman: I thing Ha-Seong is the player without a job according to the team. More on this once my Mining the News comes out later today 11:20 Kate: Is DJ Stewart just a boring platoon guy or is there some upside there? Looks like a bit of (surprising) speed upside to go with the pop. 11:21 Jeff Zimmerman: The problem with Stewart is that he doesn’t have a position right now with four outfielders ahead of him on the Orioles depth chart 11:21 >this guy<: Is Nellie Cruz keepable as a FA right now? or not until he signs 11:22 Jeff Zimmerman: I’d wait until he signs 11:22 Kate: Any upside in Bubic or is just just a boring backend guy? 11:23 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but it’s tough to know from where. He had more minor league strikeouts with better control. Also, his 1.4 HR/9 could regress. 11:23 >this guy<: Is there a home for Jurickson? 11:24 Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, I think he’ll wait until all the big names sign and then see where he fits in. 11:24 Kate: Not really into Justus Sheffield, but is he far enough down in terms of ADP that he’s kind of interesting? Locked in spot, tons of grounders. If he can get back a bit of the swing and miss, he looks like an interesting piece. 11:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, a nice late dart 11:25 >this guy<: Thanks for answering my terrible questions Jeff 11:25 Jeff Zimmerman: np 11:25 OddBall Herrera: Am I crazy to still be holding out hope for Ramon Laureano – top 20 OFer? People seem to have moved on, even though what we just saw looks a lot like a predictable sophomore slump 11:26 Jeff Zimmerman: Top-20, maybe not, but as a team’s #2 or #3, sure. 11:26 Haystack: If you could keep 3 of these guys at equal cost in 10-team H2H which 1 would you let go of: Bellinger, Yelich, Darvish, Bieber 11:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Drop Darvish. mid-30’s starter with an injury history. Pass 11:27 Kate: If the Rockies were forced to play Brendan Rodgers (or he was mercifully traded), what could we expect? How much of a worry are the shoulder issues? 11:27 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m worried about him staying on the field. He has never been healthy. 11:28 Jazzy: Last year, I traded Mookie Betts, Matt Chapman, and Caleb Smith for Giancarlo Stanton, Ad Mondesi, and Kyle Tucker. Am I an idiot? 11:28 Jeff Zimmerman: I like your side. You could end up with three 1st round values for one. 11:29 chaco chicken: Who are some of the most notable victims of recency bias you’re seeing in early rankings? 11:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Arozarena 11:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Darvish 11:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Plesac 11:30 Kate: Odds AJ Puk is moved to the pen at some point during 2021? 11:30 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it might be the only option for him. More of the Carlos Martinez career path, but with less health. 11:31 konstantin: who starts the season as the closer for the rangers and who leads the team in saves… thanks happy new year 11:31 Jeff Zimmerman: Hernandez for both 11:31 Greg: What are your thoughts on how good Framber actually is? 11:32 Jeff Zimmerman: Valdez. I love the profile of strikeouts and groundballs. I’ll not be surprised if he’s being drafted as a top-10 starter next season. 11:32 Kate: Is the Alejandro Kirk hype out of control? What’s the realistic power upside there? 11:33 Jeff Zimmerman: With no talent in the catcher pool, a projected batting average over .250 could get anyone excited. 11:33 Kate: Is Aquino interesting if he can get regular PT again? Or is the hit tool just too bad? 11:34 Jeff Zimmerman: He’d be interesting, but there are still too many bats on that team especially without the DH 11:34 Joe: John Means was solid in 2019 and then had a terrible start and great finish in 2020. Any interest in him, and do you think his projections (almost 5 ERA) are too bearish? 11:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Means falls into the German Marquez group of pitchers, usually start them on the road. Sometimes I don’t have the bench space for such hassles. 11:36 Padres Rotation: Do the SD transactions mean Lessjon instead of Morejon? 11:36 Jeff Zimmerman: I think Morejon will get a shot have some late season changes. 11:36 Kate: Any moderate power upside in JP Crawford? Or is he just a good contract/OBP guy with a little speed? 11:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think so. A disappointment 11:37 >this guy<: If I got a relatively cheap Brad Hand in standard otto, is he a keep or trade at this point, without a job? 11:37 Jeff Zimmerman: Keep for now 11:37 TINSTAAPP: Any SP outside the top 40 pitcher ADP that you are buying in bulk? 11:38 Jeff Zimmerman: I’ve only done deep leagues (40 or more rounds) and Patrick Sandoval is someone I’ve been targetting. 11:39 Jeff Zimmerman: That said, I need to come up with a better plan to target players using ADP. I’ve been going with early and then late pitching with all hitters between. I think I need to mix things up more. 11:39 Isolated Thinker: Your outlook/thoughts on new Nats 1B/DH Josh Bell? 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: It’s great for Bell’s value. 11:40 Jeff Zimmerman: It would be nice if the Nats added a couple more impact bats. 11:40 2021 rankings: Are you going to release player rankings this year? If so where (was it robo fanatic last year?) 11:41 Jeff Zimmerman: Stay tuned for some changes at FanGraphs (e.g. rework of the auction calculator). 11:41 Thank you!: Really enjoyed reading the process last year. Going to re-read this year. It inspired me to punt saves in my H2H home league – which has helped with my hair loss 11:42 Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks. 11:42 OddBall Herrera: Is Darvish really recency bias? He’s been on a consistent tear since mid 2019 11:42 Jeff Zimmerman: So not even a full season of data? 11:42 Mountain shoulders: Can you get Alex Chamberlain on launch angle as a guest? I’d love to hear you guys talk strategy together 11:43 Jeff Zimmerman: Sure, but I hope I already have next week’s lined up. 11:43 Scott: What’s your take on Dylan Carlson in a keeper? ZIPS doesn’t like him very much! 11:44 Jeff Zimmerman: I think he needs to be kept with his 2nd half changes. 11:44 David: If the Indians trade Lindor, will there be enough around Ramirez to keep him near the top for 3B? 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: I think they may add some cheap bats like Cron or Profar. Or who they get back in trade. It’s still early in the offseason. 11:45 Mountain shoulders: Do you think Tellez will finish as a top 10-12 1B next year? 11:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure on top-12. More 15 to 20 for me. 11:45 I Used to be Mel Clark: Any idea when the ATC projections will be released? 11:47 Jeff Zimmerman: Since it aggregates projections, it needs more to be released. 11:47 Kate: What do you make of a guy like Pache in terms of SB potential? Excellent speed, but doesn’t seem to know how to use it on the bases. 11:47 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m interested, but I haven’t watch him enough. 11:47 Mountain shoulders: Are there any ranger starters you’re eyeing (maybe Dunning or the Japanese pitcher)? Do the pitching friendly park factors help give them some upside? 11:48 Jeff Zimmerman: Dunning for sure. I’m interested in Hearn and Hernandez still the team wants them to 2 IP per appearance 11:49 Ian R: Who is the most likely first round pick that will be drafted outside of the first five rounds next year. Vice versa? 11:49 Jeff Zimmerman: One of the pitchers after they blow out an arm. Possibly Story depending on if he gets traded. 11:49 Kate: Anything besides health (no given obviously) holding Senzel back? 11:50 Jeff Zimmerman: The team has a ton of hitters and only so many PAs to go around. 11:50 Larry: Thoughts on Lance Lynn on the CWS in a FGPTs format? Would you say he’s top 25 SP? 11:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes since he’s a volume pitcher 11:51 Guest: How big of a hit does Davies moving from Petco to Wrigley but West to Central? 11:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Little to none IMO, neutral move. 11:51 Not the Giants: Do you think Dubon has the ability to clear the 15/15 mark? 11:52 Jeff Zimmerman: Is SF moving in the outfield walls? No chance on the 15 HRs 11:52 Paddy: Which position can you wait the longest to fill during the draft? 11:52 Jeff Zimmerman: OF, 1B, and SS all have decent late options. 11:53 TINSTAAPP: I didn’t mean top 40 rounds, top 40 pitchers. Asked a better way: What SP are you targeting after round 10 (you mentioned you like going SP early and late, who are those late guys you like?) 11:56 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m drafting pitchers starting in round 30. I completely ignore those going from round 10 to 30. I’ve found no batters after round 30 contribute, so I grab all I want before then and then go only pitchers. 11:57 Nate Lowe: Can I be a top 10-12 1B now that I am in Texas? 11:57 Jeff Zimmerman: No 11:57 Danny: Which is more likely for Kluber in 2021: 1) Top 50 SP2) A guy you drop by May 11:57 Jeff Zimmerman: Drop by May 11:57 bobsyouruncle: Is Mike Minor going to hold up his new swing and miss despite the decline in velocity? 11:57 Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure. He’s been all over the place the last few seasons. 11:58 Tommy: Are you buying Teoscar Hernandez breakout 2020? 11:58 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but not as much as others. 11:58 Prospects: Who is better for fantasy on a per game basis this year wander, Vaughn or kelenic 11:59 Jeff Zimmerman: Opposite order you have them. 11:59 Al: Keeper Q for a 12 tm 5×5 OBP/QS league. Pick 3. Wander (12th rd), Darvish (4th), Buxton (20th rd), Alonso (5th Rd), Sano (16th rd), Flaherty (9th rd) 12:00 Jeff Zimmerman: Darvish, Flaherty, …. Wander. 12:00 Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not set on the last pick 12:00 JD: Cronenworth or Arozorena as a keeper in a 5 x 5 roto league? 12:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Arozorena 12:01 Jeff Zimmerman: That’s it for this week. I’ll be around next week.