Fantasy Baseball Chat

3:00

Jeff Zimmerman: It’s time to get started.

3:00

Jason: Hello

3:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

3:00

Brian: In dynasty leagues, how does Severino’s recent injury woes (shoulder and TJ) impact your long term outlook on him?

3:02

Jeff Zimmerman: I just assume any more that starters will miss some time with TJS. It’s why I prefer to focus on hitters long term and piece together staffs each year.

3:03

Jeff Zimmerman: With Severino (and Thor), I just don’t trust either NY medical staff to get them right

3:03

Jeff Zimmerman: So my outlook is not good.

3:04

robert: In a points keeper league, which 2 of these pitchers would you keep?  Zach Wheeler, Kyle Hendricks, or James Paxton.  Thanks

3:06

Jeff Zimmerman: Damn, that is close … Paxton and Wheeler especially if it is a shallow league where Paxton has a decent replacement when he goes on the IL

3:06

Guest: Is Nick lodolo up this year?

3:07

Jeff Zimmerman: No unless the Reds are fighting for the playoffs and need a bullpen arm

3:07

Jon: I’m trying to understand my 2021 keepers. I play in a 12 team Roto, keep 8 players (where the price of a keeper is an average between current price and their Top 300 ranking).  The ones I consider locks are Acuna (current price $38), deGrom ($33), Torres ($17), Vlad Jr ($17), and Bichette ($11). Which of the following would you choose as the last 3? Options are Lux $12, Kyle Tucker $5, Wander Franco $3, Judge $27, Woodruff $15, Montas $8.

3:09

Jeff Zimmerman: Judge and Franco for sure. Between Lux and Tucker on the last one.

3:10

Jeff Zimmerman: Tucker but I could be wrong

3:11

John: With a short season likely. which position do you think is the most important to fill first?

3:13

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t think it really matters besides I might drop down pitching because the top 2 (and other workhorses like Greinke). I think innings will be limited so few Wins  excpet to the guys who can go long.

3:13

Roy: Any expected adjustments for a possible cactus/grapefruit configurations? Guessing Rockies pitchers up and hitters down. Marquez now tier 2?

3:14

Jeff Zimmerman: This will be the biggest adjustment IMO, espcially if in FL and AZ

3:15

Jeff Zimmerman: Pitchers won’t be able to go as long getting hit around.

3:15

Jeff Zimmerman: Also, there is a chance they could humidify the balls in AZ

3:16

Harry: What happens to Madrigal in a shortened season?

3:17

Jeff Zimmerman: This is another issue that I missed on the previous question, what about the minor league players.

3:17

Jeff Zimmerman: What is the plan for them playing?

3:17

Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, they won’t to start with

3:18

Jeff Zimmerman: So, teams with have about another 20 players available to call up or down.

3:18

Jeff Zimmerman: And probably bigger rosters.

3:19

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they Sox will get the extra year of control for Madrigal and then hell be a bench bat or starting with the MLB team.

3:19

Jeff Zimmerman: In short, he’ll be on the MLB team but don’t assume he’s starting.

3:19

BurtSmith: Which players will take Bill Gates vaccinne?

3:19

Jeff Zimmerman: We all will at some point.

3:19

Justin: Who do you see emerging as the Giants primary closer in 2020?

3:20

Jeff Zimmerman: You

3:21

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m just staying away. None of them are any good, so why gamble. If you want to take a chance on a bullpen, at least roster a good pitcher.

3:21

JV: Would you trade Taylor Rogers for Gallen if you need SP?

3:22

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes … but I love Gallen.

3:22

JV: What do you see from Evan White? This year and peak

3:23

Jeff Zimmerman: Another player I like. His minor league StatCast data improved a ton last season. The projections are slow at catching up. He’s a great buy with good upside.

3:23

JV: What do you think of Musgrove and Manaea this year?

3:25

Jeff Zimmerman: Musgrove – He’s like the bad Trevor Bauer. He has shown the perfect mix of pitches to succeed … and then he drops them. Just try to ride the streaks.

3:26

Jeff Zimmerman: Manaea: Not a fan at all. I don’t like his twisting delievery and I believe it is why he’s always on the IL. I let other pay for him and if I miss on a good season… oh well.

3:27

Jeff Zimmerman: I just noticed I’ve been only grabbing JV’s questions.

3:27

EpsteinDidntKillHimself: Was you crying foul play in the podcast bracket just a well-choreographed marketing stunt to get more people to click on your chat?

3:28

Jeff Zimmerman: I messed up pointing out some irregularities and there is no way to solve the problem.

3:29

JV: Thoughts on Christian Walker this year?

3:29

Jeff Zimmerman: Good legit power hitter who should play everyday. If a person misses out on 1B, he’s a fine add.

3:30

Jon: Thank you for answering my first question Jeff! Since we might not see any minor leagues this year, do you think that teams will carry their important prospects on the MLB roster rather than them lose a year? Guys like Kelenic, Franco, Bart, Adell.

3:31

Jeff Zimmerman: If the team is competitive, yes. A World Series win counts just the same. I do think some teams (Detroit) have no reason to call up their prospects.

3:31

Matt Klentak: Joe West vs Carole Baskin, who wins?

3:31

Jeff Zimmerman: Is Carole holding a potato?

3:32

Dan: Since we will have a short mlb season, does one particular format any more or less enjoyable in your opinion?

3:32

Jeff Zimmerman: IMO, H2H shouldn’t have playoffs if 100 games or fewer.

3:33

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m a little worried about teams dropping out if football starts on time.

3:33

Jeff Zimmerman: And the playoffs start in Nov.

3:34

Jeff Zimmerman: To answer the question, Roto but no good reason.

3:34

Phil: Thoughts on Alec Bohm and spencer howard?

3:35

Jeff Zimmerman: I think they’ll be up to start the season or just after the team just an extra year of control

3:35

Jeff Zimmerman: Both are good players except a lawn gnome might be a better fielder than Bohm

3:36

Mmmm: I got offered Jose Quintana and Aaron Judge for Evan White, Jose Urquidy and Corbin Carroll.  12 team dynasty 22 active 8 reserves and 23 minors.  Im just not excited by judge.  Is something wrong with me?  Should i take it?

3:37

Jeff Zimmerman: I think you take Judge and be elated

3:37

Don Juan: Honestly bro, I just want baseball back.

3:38

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m thinking I’d watch any baseball and/or softball at any level. Even that first year of kid pitch when everyone walks or gets hit.

3:38

808: Roto 5×5 Ottoneu. Trade $19 Pham for $20 Muncy? In need of MI, have OF depth.

3:39

Jeff Zimmerman: That’s fair.

3:39

JV: In an roto league with SV+Hld and QS instead of win. I have 4 relievers, 6 starters and whatever CMart is, should I drop Bummer for a $0 Rich hill?

3:39

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes … sure.

3:40

Balancedman178: Who will produce the most value over the next 3 years in a traditional AL only roto league: Michael Kopech, Julio Rodriguez, or Andrew Vaughn?

3:40

Jeff Zimmerman: No idea at all.  I can’t find my magic 8-ball to give me an answer.

3:41

808: What are the end of year numbers you try to hit in a 12 team roto 5×5?

3:42

Jeff Zimmerman: Third place numbers from the previous season. I did drop SB totals down a tad.

3:42

Jeff Zimmerman: One thing to be careful with is if projections adjust to AZ parks.

3:43

Jeff Zimmerman: Say all the players were supposed to hit 1000 HR and now it’s 1100

3:44

Jeff Zimmerman: While filling a roster, you may hit the HRs needed early and stop adding them

3:44

Jeff Zimmerman: But you need to add 10% more.

3:45

John: What AL prospects or sleepers do you project for 2020.    I did well with Shane Bieber and Ramon Laureano last year.

3:45

Justin: Give me a prospect that everyone is sleeping on that will be a superstar

3:45

Jon: Which players would you target in Roto keeper leagues that you feel will be elite (Round 1 or 2) in the coming years but are currently undervalued?

3:47

Jeff Zimmerman: I like Josh Rojas (NL or John) and Jake Fraley in a Jose Ramirez mode of good AVG, HR, and SB.

3:48

Harry: Which veterans do you like more in the short season?

3:50

Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t have an opinion on this. I think everyone will be getting more rest. I think the most to gain will be in daily leagues where players can be moved around.

3:51

Justin: Will Puig sign somewhere soon?

3:52

Jeff Zimmerman: 80% chance. Rumor was that he wanted a ton of years and teams weren’t biting. A one year contract might be the best for him.

3:52

jpmags68: Do you expect Scott Kingery to improve his walk rate this year? How realistic is it for him to finish in the top 15 2b?

3:53

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m no sure he can hit and could be a Roughned Odor clone of low .200 AVG, sub-.300 OBP, but decent SB and HR.

3:54

Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not paying for an improved walk rate until I see it.

3:54

Chucky: Thoughts on Gore’s and May’s opportunities to pitch in meaningfull fantacy situations?

3:55

Jeff Zimmerman: Decent as teams get their starters stretched out and could be using a 6th starter.

3:55

Pat Sajak: I have no interest in winning this year.  I have offered Rizzo, C Santana, and Berrios for Moncada.  Is one of us crazy?

3:57

Jeff Zimmerman: If the other owner is competing, they should take the deal and run with it. It’s probably a good deal for you. I’d try to get some darts thrown in even if they are 5% chances to hit (e.g. Jose Peraza).

3:58

jpmags68: What is your take on expected Priate Pitching improvement due to the new Prirate coaching specially with Archer and Keller?

3:59

Jeff Zimmerman: I have my hopes up but understand nothing might change. And if the pitching coach stayed, regression was likely to cause both to improve.

3:59

Pat Sajak: Which prospects do you like more in the short season?

4:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Howard with Phillies

4:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Adell with Angels

4:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Hoerner with Bubs

4:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs

4:01

Jeff Zimmerman: Dylan Carlson with Cards

4:01

Jeff Zimmerman: Pearson with the Jays

4:01

jpmags68: Does Berti and Braun play everyday if Universal DH is implemented?

4:01

Jeff Zimmerman: Braun yes

4:02

Jeff Zimmerman: No on Berti. I think he Util only until some gets hurt. I think Joyce and Cooper DH

4:02

JCS: Carlos Rodon, ends the season in rotation or pen?

4:03

Jeff Zimmerman: Rotation in-season but could be in the pen if the WS make the playoffs

4:03

Numbers man: Scouting scale question: why are 70 and 75 fastballs so uncommon?  It seems like there are 65’s and 80’s

4:03

Jeff Zimmerman: Bias

4:04

Jeff Zimmerman: A scout may wait until they get that one 100 to get the 80 (or whatever is their scale).

4:05

Jeff Zimmerman: Part of the problem is that most teams give fastballs two grades, Velocity and movement, and control.

4:06

Jeff Zimmerman: prospect reporting services just use one and it’s velo

4:06

Jeff Zimmerman: based

4:06

Jeff Zimmerman: Usually 80 grade velo comes with 30 grade control

4:06

Rockman: In a keeper league we keep 3 SPs (no cost, keep as long as you want); I have Flaherty, Giolito, Kershaw, and Nola – have to drop one.  Your suggestion?

4:08

Jeff Zimmerman: If you have any hope of competing, drop Nola. If you are just playing for the future, drop Kershaw. That said, you should be able to work out a trade for a 2 for 1. Nola and Kershaw for Castillo or a pitcher for hitter. You have 4 top-30 SP and someone can improve their team with one.

4:09

Jeff Zimmerman: Question are drying up if anyone wants to add some more. JV?

4:10

Darryl: Hi Jeff thanks for doing this! One of my leagues is a 20 team 6×6 dynasty roto that uses QS, ERA, WHIP, K, S, H pitching categories. But we’ve been watching QS% decline quite a bit league-wide over the last several years as teams have been using openers, they’re avoiding using their starters third time through the order, etc.  We went to QS to avoid the randomness of wins but is there a better option?

4:11

Jeff Zimmerman: I have two: IP or QS+Wins

4:12

Jeff Zimmerman: I agree Wins and QS are an issue.

4:12

Jeff Zimmerman: There are no good answers on how to deal with them.

4:13

Jeff Zimmerman: The queue is empty and I’m done. Talk to everyone later.





Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won three FSWA Awards including on for his MASH series. In his first two seasons in Tout Wars, he's won the H2H league and mixed auction league. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.

newest oldest most voted
Matthew
Member
Member
Matthew

This is going to sound insane, but for Darryl, we were having a similar issue with QS in our league and actually built a stat that closely tracks game score and everyone loves it. You’ll need to use a site like CBS that allows for custom stats to allow you to do something like that, but we think it’s been a great addition. Happy to share the equation if you’re interested!

paulorose
Member
Member
paulorose

That sounds awesome! Would you be willing to post to the math here?