FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 18)
Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
In this article, I cover the players using CBS’s and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now, while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. I start players being added at CBS who started the week on less than 40% of rosters.
The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by hitters, starters, and relievers.
Batters
Heriberto Hernández: Now that he’s starting every game, he is approaching a must-roster player in all formats with 14 HR in 258 PA.
Ty France: The 32-year-old has 12 straight starts with 16 HR in 265 PA on the season to go with a .279 AVG. The power increase could be real, with an average Exit Velocity setting a career high at 92.5 mph with his Bat Speed up 1 mph. Must add for any team needing power.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand: Started in five straight games for the Orioles with 3 HR in 22 PA (19 HR in 297 PA in AAA). Playing and hitting … sounds like an add.
Willi Castro: Solid production (9 HR, 7 SB, .259 AVG) for someone qualified at every position but catcher.
Lane Thomas: After going on a hot stretch, he has just a .330 OPS in his last six games. I’d consider him to be an average hitter, and that’s useful in some leagues.
Tommy White: A 57% GB% is tanking White’s power (0.87 ISO), but a 0% K% (91% Contact%) has him with a .348 AVG and .835 OPS.
Joey Ortiz: Continues to start for the Brewers with 5 HR and 8 SB in 266 PA. He remains a batting average sink with a .235 AVG.
Jim Jarvis: Continues to start at shortstop for the Braves with a .286 AVG in 60 PA. In AAA, he stole 32 bases but none yet in the majors, so there is some upside.
Griffin Conine: Strong-side platoon bat who is providing decent power (7 HR in 113 PA) with a .270 AVG.
Victor Mesa Jr.: Started in six of the last 10 games. He has 8 HR in 123 PA, but it’s tough to know when those plate appearances are coming, especially on Tampa.
Tim Tawa: In 355 career plate appearances, he has 11 HR and 10 SB with a .212 AVG. I sort of see the appeal but am hoping for more.
Jacob Gonzalez: Just three starts in 10 games since joining the Pirates. Ignore until some playing time materializes.
Andrés Chaparro: Short-side platoon, power-only bat (career 9 HR, .207 AVG, 1 SB). Pass.
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer: Due to a recent injury, his fantasy value, amongst other things, got ruptured.
Catchers
Keibert Ruiz: Solid season with 7 HR and a .272 AVG.
Harry Ford: Started in four of eight games since being promoted. It’s tough to get a read on a guy with 16 PA. Add based on unknown upside.
J.T. Realmuto: Realmuto finally aged into a normal career with 7 HR and a .224 AVG in 280 PA.
Tyler Stephenson: Solid 8 HR and .249 AVG in 276 PA.
Yainer Diaz: Lost 2.2 mph in bat speed compared to last season, with his OPS down for the third straight season (.846 to .766 to .701 to .654). Some power (6 HR) but nothing else.
Nick Fortes: A .281 AVG and nothing else. Snooze.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Realmuto | 39% | 41% | 2% |
| Yainer Diaz | 39% | 40% | 1% |
| Willi Castro | 38% | 39% | 1% |
| Keibert Ruiz | 34% | 35% | 1% |
| Tyler Stephenson | 26% | 28% | 2% |
| Heriberto Hernandez | 19% | 21% | 2% |
| Joshua Kuroda-Grauer | 16% | 18% | 2% |
| Tommy White | 13% | 17% | 4% |
| Jacob Gonzalez | 11% | 13% | 2% |
| Lane Thomas | 9% | 18% | 9% |
| Harry Ford | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Ty France | 5% | 21% | 16% |
| Griffin Conine | 5% | 8% | 3% |
| Nick Fortes | 4% | 7% | 3% |
| Joseph Ortiz | 3% | 9% | 6% |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 2% | 8% | 6% |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 2% | 7% | 5% |
| Tim Tawa | 2% | 6% | 4% |
| Jim Jarvis | 1% | 4% | 3% |
| Andres Chaparro | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Starters
Keider Montero: Montero has been insane over his last three starts (CHC, LAA, PHI) with a 37% K%-BB% and 60% GB%. He got BABIP around in one start, meaning he has a 3.09 ERA compared to his 1.19 xFIP. He’s never seen a three-game sample with an xFIP this low … ever. The best before this stretch was a 3.19 xFIP. Managers need to add now to see if a true breakout is happening.
Kyle Leahy: In early June, the 29-year-old got his walks under control and took off. Before his June 12th start, he had a 4.42 ERA (4.42 xFIP), 1.58 WHIP (3.7 BB/9), and 7.2 K/9. Since then, he has a 2.23 ERA (3.65 xFIP), 0.99 WHIP (2.2 BB/9), and 7.9 K/9.
Brandon Pfaadt: The 4.7 K/9 is the only ugly part of his profile since being promoted. The 1.0 BB/9 and 52% GB% have him with a 2.33 ERA (4.34 xFIP, 3.45 botERA). Not an ideal profile but workable.
Zac Thornton: In his two July starts, he has not allowed a run but has only 7 K in 13 IP. And he has a two-start week coming up against the Braves and Marlins. I’m not brave enough to start him, but I understand that if he has two great starts, his price will be through the roof. I’d add, bench, and see how the two starts go and evaluate from there.
Jordan Montgomery: His 2026 debut is scheduled for Monday after posting a 5.52 ERA (3.46 xFIP), 1.36 WHIP (0.0 BB/9), and 8.0 K/9 in 14 minor league rehab innings. Ranked high on the unknown.
Brady Singer: Singer got back to going sinker-slider (93% combined usage) over his last three starts with 17 K and 2 BB over 21 IP (2.57 ERA, 3.16 xFIP). He’s seen similar stretches in the past and regressed to his low-4.00 ERA talent.
Luinder Avila: If a manager doesn’t care about their WHIP (1.56 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9), Avila is showing some growth. Over his last four starts, he has a 60% GB% and an 8.0 K/9. The walks are still high (3.5 BB/9, 1.43 WHIP), but our STUPH models tolerated him over that stretch (4.02 botERA, 104 Pitch+).
Ronel Blanco: Blanco’s Sunday start is going to go a long way to setting his value. In his debut, his talent indicators were all over the place with a 7.71 ERA, 4.75 botERA, and 3.58 xFIP. That’s what you get from 2 H, 2 HR, 8 K, 3 BB, and 4 ER in 4 IP. Not much to take from that start.
Matthew Liberatore: Fantasy managers added Liberatore (5.18 ERA, 1.52 WHIP) to run against the lowly Angels and got burnt with 5 ER in 5 IP. He’s barely a streaming option right now.
Kohl Drake: After a solid debut (5 IP, 5 K, 2 BB, 1 ER), he’ll start again on Sunday (vs WAS), setting his future value. Another solid start and his acquisition cost will jump. I don’t have much faith in him with a 5.75 xFIP in AAA this season.
Erick Fedde 페디: In three July starts (CLE, ATH, TEX), he has been great (2.70 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 1.20 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9) with his sinker (48% GB%, 5% SwStr%) usage (27% and 45%) and velocity (93.8 to 94.6 mph) up. Probably a bigger deal is dropping his walk rate from 3.7 BB/9 to 1.4 BB/9. He’s seen similar low walk rates, and it has always jumped back up.
Janson Junk: Junk has struggled over his last six starts with a 7.92 ERA (5.02 xFIP), 1.73 WHIP (3.5 BB/9), and 7.0 K/9. There haven’t been any changes to his arsenal. He has seen his walk rate double during this stretch compared to earlier in the season (1.9 BB/9). At best, he belongs on the bench in deeper leagues.
David Peterson: The Cubs have transformed Peterson from a 4.50 ERA talent into a 5.00+ ERA talent (5.57 ERA, 5.25 xFIP, 5.32 botERA). A 4.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 won’t cut it.
Robert Gasser: I can’t get a read on Gasser this year. One start is great and then a clunker. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher (29% GB%), leading to his 1.9 HR/9. In his 10 starts, he has allowed a home run in seven of them. I’ll let someone else deal with the headache.
Pitching Prospects
Braxton Garrett: Since being demoted back to AAA, Garrett has a 2.34 ERA, 1.02 WHIP (2.8 BB/9), and 10.2 K/9 in 42 IP. He belongs in the majors.
Quinn Mathews: In AAA, the 25-year-old righty has a 3.13 ERA (4.33 xFIP), 1.14 WHIP (5.1 BB/9), and 10.9 K/9 in 92 IP.
Injured Pitchers
AJ Smith-Shawver: In 17 rehab innings, he has a 1.53 ERA (3.12 xFIP), 1.19 WHIP (2.6 BB/9), and 10.7 K/9.
Jackson Jobe: In 7 rehab innings, he has a 1.23 ERA (3.42 xFIP), 0.95 WHIP (0.0 BB/9), and 9.8 K/9.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Leahy | 36% | 44% | 8% |
| Brady Singer | 35% | 44% | 9% |
| Keider Montero | 31% | 43% | 12% |
| Brandon Pfaadt | 30% | 41% | 11% |
| A.J. Smith-Shawver | 26% | 29% | 3% |
| Matthew Liberatore | 21% | 25% | 4% |
| Jackson Jobe | 21% | 23% | 2% |
| Zach Thornton | 19% | 43% | 24% |
| Robert Gasser | 13% | 16% | 3% |
| David Peterson | 13% | 15% | 2% |
| Quinn Mathews | 12% | 15% | 3% |
| Ronel Blanco | 9% | 23% | 14% |
| Erick Fedde | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Janson Junk | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Luinder Avila | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Braxton Garrett | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Jordan Montgomery | 2% | 5% | 3% |
| Kohl Drake | 1% | 3% | 2% |
Relievers: Saves-based ranks
Hogan Harris: Average reliever who is the closer.
Clayton Beeter: Average reliever who is the closer.
Ryan Zeferjahn: Below-average reliever who is probably the closer.
Jordan Romano: Poor reliever who is the closer.
Jacob Webb: Average reliever who could be the closer.
Tyler Wells: Average reliever who might be the closer.
Andrew Kittredge: Average reliever who might be the closer.
Luke Weaver: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Garrett Whitlock: Good reliever who is the backup closer.
Steven Okert: Good reliever who might be the backup closer.
Brent Headrick: Good reliever who is a couple of steps away from closing.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster% | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Wells | 36% | 37% | 1% |
| Clayton Beeter | 27% | 28% | 1% |
| Luke Weaver | 25% | 28% | 3% |
| Garrett Whitlock | 25% | 27% | 2% |
| Jacob Webb | 20% | 23% | 3% |
| Hogan Harris | 15% | 17% | 2% |
| Andrew Kittredge | 9% | 10% | 1% |
| Jordan Romano | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Brent Headrick | 6% | 10% | 4% |
| Steven Okert | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | 4% | 6% | 2% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
Great stuff as always. Pirates have faced 8 lefties in last 11 games so hopefully Gonzalez is a strong side platoon bat.
RE Quinn Mathews. He’s a lefty.
Hi Jeff – Love your RP section. Any classified “great” relievers — true ratio erasers — rostered < 30%-ish in 12t roto leagues? Saves not required. I have Whitlock but looking to improve. Thanks.
Just took the plunge on Hogan Harris. He’s added a tick and a half this year (it actually dates back to the last 2 months of last year) with a corresponding bump in his Stuff+ which has bumped his K% up. Gobs of weak contact, relatively even split of GB/FB. A lot of red on his Statcast page except for Chase% and BB% (which are deep blue and his big problem area). He’s bumped his CB% up a bit the last 2 months with a really nice jump in his K-BB%.
He might even be better than average. RosterResource has him as the closer and he has the last 2 saves. Certainly worth taking a flyer on if you’re trolling for saves (like me).
Good stuff and thanks. I sense a large number of closers losing and gaining the 9th inning. Hard to believe a third of baseball have lousy closers.