FAAB & Waiver Wire Report (Week 10)
In the article, I cover the players using CBS’s (about 40% or less initial roster rate) and Yahoo’s ADD/DROP rates. Both hosting sites have the option for daily and weekly waiver wire adds. CBS uses a weekly change while Yahoo looks at the last 24 hours. Yahoo is a great snapshot of right now while CBS ensures hot targets from early in the week aren’t missed. The players are ordered for redraft leagues by my rest-of-season preference, grouped by starters, relievers, and hitters.
My weekend was broken up with my son competing at the state track meet and hosting family who came to watch him. I ranked all the players, but didn’t add comments for everyone, especially the hitters who haven’t seen a value change.
Batters
Parker Meadows: On a major league rehab assignment and crushing the ball (1.066 OPS). The outfield is going to get crowded with three spots (and some DH) for
Riley Greene (.830 OPS), Kerry Carpenter (.793 OPS), Javier Báez (.769 OPS), Wenceel Pérez (.952 OPS, 7 PA), Justyn-Henry Malloy (.645 OPS, possibly optioned down), and Meadows.
Matt Wallner: The power hitter expects to come off the IL this weekend. Watch the playing time of Kody Clemens (1.087 OPS) and Willi Castro (.648 OPS), who have been playing in the outfield.
Brett Baty: Nine straight starts, including one against a lefty. So far, he’s batting .243/.288/.459 with 6 HR and 2 SB. Mark Vientos’s playing time dropped to just three starts in the last six games as he struggles at the plate (.235/.305/.385).
Kody Clemens: With Matt Wallner off the IL, Ty France sat, and Clemens played third base.
Alejandro Osuna: In 17 PA, he’s getting on base with no power (.333/.529/.333). So far, he’s 0 for 2 in stolen base attempts. Even in the minors, he got caught quite a bit attempting to steal bases.
Robert Hassell III: While starting every game in centerfield, he’s struggling with non-fastballs (34% fastballs seen) with a 28% K%. When he does hit the ball, it’s on the ground (55% GB%).
Ernie Clement: Continues to play every game, but Andrés Giménez is about to come off the IL.
Mike Tauchman: Strong-side platoon bat hitting .314/.442/.486 with 1 HR in 43 PA.
Catchers
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Caballero SS TB | 39% | 41% | 2% |
| Drake Baldwin C ATL | 39% | 40% | 1% |
| Gavin Sheets DH SD | 38% | 56% | 18% |
| Nolan Schanuel 1B LAA | 37% | 39% | 2% |
| Miguel Vargas 3B CHW | 36% | 56% | 20% |
| Connor Norby 3B MIA | 36% | 41% | 5% |
| Giancarlo Stanton DH NYY | 31% | 36% | 5% |
| Chase Meidroth SS CHW | 28% | 40% | 12% |
| Matt Wallner RF MIN | 27% | 31% | 4% |
| Parker Meadows CF DET | 24% | 27% | 3% |
| Brett Baty 3B NYM | 22% | 43% | 21% |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa SS PIT | 20% | 21% | 1% |
| Carlos Santana 1B CLE | 19% | 23% | 4% |
| Caleb Durbin 3B MIL | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Miguel Andujar LF ATH | 15% | 20% | 5% |
| Jesus Sanchez RF MIA | 13% | 16% | 3% |
| Robert Hassell CF WAS | 13% | 14% | 1% |
| Carlos Narvaez C BOS | 10% | 23% | 13% |
| Eric Wagaman 3B MIA | 10% | 11% | 1% |
| Ernie Clement 3B TOR | 7% | 9% | 2% |
| Kody Clemens 2B MIN | 6% | 13% | 7% |
| Angel Martinez CF CLE | 6% | 8% | 2% |
| Curtis Mead 1B TB | 5% | 7% | 2% |
| Lenyn Sosa 2B CHW | 4% | 6% | 2% |
| Alejandro Osuna LF TEX | 2% | 6% | 4% |
| Mike Tauchman RF CHW | 1% | 2% | 1% |
| Abraham Toro 1B BOS | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| Ryan Ritter SS COL | 0% | 2% | 2% |
Starters
Slade Cecconi: A simple must roster in all formats with his 3.27 ERA higher than most of his ERA estimators. Here are the negatives I could find. It’s only 11 IP. This is huge, but needs to be ignored because other managers will add him. Our two STUPH models aren’t fans, grading him as an average to below-average pitcher. There seems to be a disconnect between projection and results. His pitch-type results are off the charts with four secondaries posting a 17% SwStr% or higher.
Landen Roupp: Turned into a solid 3.60 ERA talent. In May, he pushed his groundball rate up to 48%.
Lance McCullers Jr.: On Wednesday night, McCullers struck out 12 batters while only allowing 3 ER over 6 IP. I think McCullers needs to be added do to this game, but I’m not sure he’s a must-start. I’m not sure who he is yet.
On the positive side, his Ball% is trending in the right direction from 41% to 53% to 36% to 43% to 32%. Additionally, his curve has a 27% SwStr% and 50% GB%.
On the negative side, he has a 1.70 xFIP (30% K%-BB%) against lefties and a 6.25 xFIP (4% K%-BB%) against righties. Also, his average fastball velocity dropped to a career-low 91.7 mph, but is trending upward.
Kyle Harrison: Solid so far with a 2.51 ERA (3.40 xFIP), 0.98 WHIP (3.8 BB/9), and 10.1 K/9.
Colton Gordon: The 26-year-old lefty has a 5.52 ERA (3.81 xFIP) and 1.43 WHIP because of a .362 BABIP. While it has been only 14 IP, his 18 K%-BB% is comparable to qualified pitchers Matthew Liberatore, Max Fried, and Spencer Schwellenbach. His 2.93 botERA (extremely predictive in short samples) is compared to Kevin Gausman, Ryan Pepiot, and Drew Rasmussen. With the comps, he needs to be added to see if the results continue. One major issue is that none of his pitches have a SwStr% over 10%.
Chad Patrick: With just a 26% GB%, home runs could bite him in a start, but solid so far with a 2.97 ERA (4.24 xFIP), 1.25 WHIP (2.5 BB/9), and 8.1 K/9.
Zack Littell: An 85% LOB% has his 3.86 ERA under his ERA estimators (5.14 FIP, 4.17 xFIP). While he doesn’t walk anyone (1.3 BB/9), he doesn’t strike anyone out (5.8 K/9).
Ryne Nelson: Mixed results as a starter with a 1.69 ERA (4.35 xFIP) and a 0.94 WHIP from a .196 BABIP. He’s getting no swing-and-miss as seen by his 4.5 K/9.
Ryan Yarbrough: The 33-year-old and his sub-88 mph fastball have found a way to post a career-high 8.9 K/9. His slider and changeup both have an 18% SwStr% or higher.
Charlie Morton: Over the 41-year-old’s last five appearances, he got the walks under control (2.4 BB/9, previously 7.4 BB/9). During that time, he has a 3.57 ERA (3.42 xFIP), 8.3 K/9, and 1.06 WHIP.
Chris Paddack: Among the 79 qualified starters, his 8.8% K%-BB% is the 14th smallest value. A .251 BABIP suppresses his 3.92 ERA and 1.20 WHIP.
Adrian Houser: So far, a 0.00 ERA (3.83 xFIP), 0.75 WHIP, and 6.0 K/9 in 12 IP. His stock could jump or drop depending on how he throws on Sunday.
Richard Fitts: Only went 3 IP in his return from the IL with a season-high fastball velocity in that start.
Sawyer Gipson-Long: Across three minor league levels while rehabbing, he posted an 8.8 K/9, 2.20 ERA (3.03 xFIP), and 0.98 WHIP (1.10 BB/9). His fastball velocity matches his previous values.
Jacob Lopez: There is nothing to see here. A 6.32 ERA and 1.85 WHIP stemming from a 5.2 BB/9.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Littell SP TB | 34% | 44% | 10% |
| Landen Roupp SP SF | 32% | 38% | 6% |
| Chris Paddack SP MIN | 28% | 30% | 2% |
| Noah Cameron SP KC | 23% | 49% | 26% |
| Lance McCullers SP HOU | 19% | 49% | 30% |
| Miles Mikolas SP STL | 19% | 25% | 6% |
| Randy Vasquez SP SD | 17% | 24% | 7% |
| Bailey Falter SP PIT | 16% | 18% | 2% |
| Charlie Morton SP BAL | 15% | 19% | 4% |
| Chad Patrick SP MIL | 15% | 16% | 1% |
| Richard Fitts SP BOS | 14% | 16% | 2% |
| Edward Cabrera SP MIA | 12% | 20% | 8% |
| Kyle Harrison RP SF | 12% | 16% | 4% |
| Slade Cecconi SP CLE | 8% | 19% | 11% |
| Davis Martin SP CHW | 8% | 9% | 1% |
| Ryne Nelson RP ARI | 7% | 12% | 5% |
| Ryan Yarbrough RP NYY | 6% | 18% | 12% |
| Colton Gordon SP HOU | 4% | 5% | 1% |
| Sawyer Gipson-Long SP DET | 3% | 5% | 2% |
| Adrian Houser SP CHW | 2% | 6% | 4% |
| Keider Montero SP DET | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Jacob Lopez SP ATH | 1% | 4% | 3% |
Relievers
Daniel Palencia: Great reliever who is the closer.
Robert Garcia: Good reliever who is the closer.
David Bednar: OK reliever who could be the closer.
Zach Agnos: Below-average reliever who could be the closer.
Ronny Henriquez: Good reliever who is again the backup closer.
Abner Uribe: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Reed Garrett: Great reliever who is the backup closer.
Randy Rodríguez: Good reliever who is a few steps away from closing.
Ben Casparius: Great pitcher who is waiting to rejoin the rotation.
| Name | Previous Roster% | Current Roster % | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Bednar RP PIT | 31% | 33% | 2% |
| Abner Uribe RP MIL | 18% | 20% | 2% |
| Ben Casparius RP LAD | 17% | 20% | 3% |
| Daniel Palencia RP CHC | 11% | 48% | 37% |
| Robert Garcia RP TEX | 9% | 19% | 10% |
| Randy Rodriguez RP SF | 9% | 13% | 4% |
| Reed Garrett RP NYM | 8% | 10% | 2% |
| Zach Agnos RP COL | 5% | 6% | 1% |
| Ronny Henriquez RP MIA | 1% | 8% | 7% |
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
As a former trackie, I hope your son has a great experience and gets an awesome personal best. Let us know how he did in tonight’s chat.
Jeff, in what event did your son compete?
Interesting comp between Colton Gordon and Max Fried. Surprisingly, they both get to their elite K% – BB% the same way, a league average strikeout rate combined with a microscopic walk rate. They both have very effective curve balls. Neither seem to have a good fastball, but Fried is an extreme vertical movement guy, so his rather flat fastball probably does a good job of giving the illusion of rise. Not so much for Gordon. He is a more typical horizontal movement guy and has given up a bit too much loud contact on his fastball, enough that he needs to use it only sparingly to keep hitters off his breaking stuff. He might actually be throwing his fastball in the zone too much. But even if he finds an improves his pitch mix and sequencing, I don’t see a ceiling anything like Fried’s.
Damn. Brilliant analysis Sculpin. I expect to see more of your weekly analysis moving forward. TYIA. 😉
Vientos is losing more of his playing time against righties to Jared Young than to Baty as the Mets are mercifully playing Vientos less at third base lately.
Jeff, I like your analyses, and that’s great about your son, but stay on top of the news. Brett Baty has excelled since returning from the minors. Kyle Harrison started in the bullpen and has only started his two last games. Noteworty tidbits, no? And those are just the ones I’m aware of. It makes me wonder if there are other missing details in these articles that I’m not aware of.
Baty since getting recalled – .369 wOBA, .393 xwOBA, 24.3% K, 4.3% BB, 90.4 mph EV, 10* LA, 46.9%HardHit. Has worked his way up to 5th behind the big 4 in a stacked lineup. Lots of good there
(Those numbers were all a bit better before his 0/4 with 3K and an 88 mph groundout yesterday Even with all the goodness, he’s probably still a platoon bat)
At the same time, we can’t pretend the 660+ mediocre PA in the majors before that didn’t happen either and those K:BB numbers above are a little less rosy than the other numbers.
I’m with ya on hoping for a breakout and scooped him in my league, but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves here
Oh, and he goes to Coors for 3 this coming weekend so he needs to be rostered everywhere as one of the few Mets likely to be on at least some waiver wires out there. . . .