FAAB Frenzy and Waivers Wild: Week 17

Every Monday, this column will break down the most popular waiver wire and free agent acquisitions of the weekend. I dig into the top adds on the ever-popular Fantrax and in the NFBC Online Championship (OC), a national mid-stakes contest with 240 total leagues of 12 and a six-figure grand prize. Reviewing player adds between the two should provide us with a well-rounded perspective and barometer of the fantasy baseball marketplace.

Week 16 Overview

Hitters

The top two hitters on the FanGraphs Player Rater – James Wood and Ben Rice – were the only ones with five home runs in Week 16. Shohei Ohtani and Pittsburgh Pirates rookie Esmerlyn Valdez hit four apiece. Pirates’ Ryan O’Hearn tied Rice in RBI for the week (12), driving in 10 in Tuesday’s contest. The Pirates scored 15 runs on Sunday and are now tied with the Nationals for the Major League lead in runs with 516. The Los Angeles Dodgers (506 runs) are the only other team with over 500. The team with the fewest runs scored are the San Diego Padres (379 in 96 games). Last week, I predicted that Cleveland Guardians rookie Kahlil Watson would be the only player with four stolen bases. Turns out Carson Benge was the only one with four swipes (Watson had two). My prediction about the Milwaukee Brewers being the second team with 50+ runs in a week did not come to fruition either. They scored 40 in their eight games, third in the Majors behind the Kansas City Royals (42) and Pirates (41). The Royals have lost five straight, averaging 2.2 runs per game over those contests, but they produced 31 runs in the early part of the week — a 15-1 victory against Monday against the Phillies and 16-12 versus the Mets on Tuesday.

Pitchers

Five of the 33 two-start pitchers (15%) earned wins in both their starts — Zack Wheeler, Paul Skenes, Taj Bradley, Matthew Boyd, and Brandon Pfaadt. Partially motivated by an All-Star snub, Wheeler punched out 24 batters, which was eight more than any other pitcher. NL All-Star Game starter Cristopher Sánchez had a rough outing last Monday (9 ER in 3.1 IP). No pitcher allowed more hits than Sánchez’s 22 last week. His 1.19 WHIP is below average among the aces, but his 2.62 ERA remains elite. My prediction of Griffin Jax outperforming Ian Seymour came to fruition. Each earned a win, but Jax allowed just four earned runs and five hits in his two starts, while Seymour was hammered for eight runs on 11 hits. Seymour punched out 12 Yankees in his first start, but was hammered for five runs with just three strikeouts in 3.1 innings against the Mariners over the weekend. Don’t let that start deter you and hold onto your Seymour shares in 12-team leagues.

Week 17’s Most Added: NFBC Main Event (15-team), NFBC OC (12-team), Fantrax

This week, I wanted to start off with the most popular acquisitions in the 15-team Main Event, where the average fantasy manager has $230 of their $1,000 budget remaining.

Free agent acquisitions continue to be heavily influenced by recency bias and prospect hype. Patrick Sandoval hadn’t pitched in almost two years, then throws five scoreless innings in his return, and now he’s the Belle of the Roto Ball. Same with Zach Thornton of the Mets, who had a dynamic start on Sunday and appears to be part of their rotation for now. At least their prices were reasonable. Janson Junk was the deep-league pitcher I was most interested in, among starters available in more than 50% of leagues. Good pitching is hard to come by in the competitive 15-team free agent pool, but sharp Main Event managers aren’t just blindly adding anyone with a pulse. That’s why we rarely see Rockies starters like Michael Lorenzen or Kyle Freeland with a roster rate of over five percent. They recognize that the risk greatly outweighs the reward. Junk was worth targeting because he has a strength rarely available in the 15-team pool: control. Junk boasts a 110 Location+, rocks a studly 4.5% career walk rate, and makes approximately half of his starts in a pitcher-friendly park. If the Marlins slate Junk in after the big three (Sandy Alcantara, Eury Pérez, Max Meyer), then he would line up for a very reasonable two-step of Houston Astros (away) and San Diego Padres (home) in Week 18, the first full week after the break. Connelly Early was 100% rostered just two weeks ago, then was dropped in 15-of-60 (20%) leagues. He was picked back up in every single one of those for an average of $57 ($142 high bid, $33 low bid), based on news of a best case scenario of his elbow injury: “it’s just inflammation.”

Luis Lara is an intriguing prospect who doesn’t look overmatched in his first week of at-bats in the Majors. Lara also does not have an everyday role in the Brewers offense. Perhaps Lara pushes Sal Frelick for his spot, or runs cold after the All-Star break and is inevitably demoted. There are very few needle-movers worth bidding on this late in the season. Lara may or may not be one and a $20 AWB isn’t an unreasonable amount to gamble on the possibility. Usually we see a larger AWB differential in the Main Event and the Online Championship than the two dollar difference on Lara ($20 vs. $18) over the weekend. The difference between average winning bids of Arizona Diamondbacks rookie outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt was much greater — $22 in the 15-team contests to just $10 in the 12-team OCs. Perhaps Waldschmidt’s injury scare (a near-100-mph sinker off his right hand during a bunt attempt on Friday) kept his AWBs reasonable, despite returning to the lineup on Sunday. A bigger issue is his batting order slot, at and near the bottom of the lineup. To realize full value on the acquisition and perhaps earn a profit, we’d like to see Waldy batting higher in the lineup. This should happen sometime in late July or early August. Given the choice, I would rather roster Waldschmidt than Lara.

Absolutely stunting like his daddy, Kyle Karros has been out of his mind. Per the Player Rater, Karros is the 12th best roto hitter over the last 30 days, batting .333 with six homers, 20 runs, 17 runs batted in and a stolen base in 97 plate appearances. Note that the bulk of that production (12 R, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 1 SB) came over his last 15 games (69 PAs). Karros has been batting fifth against right-handed pitchers and locked into the two-hole against southpaws. Luis Robert Jr. is slated for activation right after the break. Out since April 26 with a back injury, Robert has three consecutive two-hit efforts with Triple-A Syracuse. It’s likely that the Mets utilize him more at DH for the bulk of July, though if we see him abruptly thrust into centerfield a week after his activation, consider that a signal that he’s being shopped prior to the MLB Trade Deadline. If he can maintain his health over the next 10.5 weeks, he may just be a fantasy star. Andrew Kittredge was available in 34% more OCs than Tyler Wells, mostly because Wells was acquired in a chunk of leagues the previous week. Kittredge went for one dollar more than Wells ($13 vs. $12), likely because he earned two saves earlier in the week and might appear to be the Baltimore Orioles closer. The duo is listed as co-closers on RosterResource, but Wells should earn more opportunities while Ryan Helsley is sidelined. Wells drew the tougher matchups against the Cubs in the eighth inning on Thursday (the top of the order) and was unavailable on Friday when Kittredge earned the save.

Last week, Kansas City Royals hitter Tyler Tolbert tied an MLB record of consecutive plate appearances with a hit (12). A sparingly-used utility player, Tolbert has been earning more playing time due to Maikel Garcia’s absence, with the bulk of those appearances occurring against left-handed starting pitchers. Tolbert did not start in any of the three games over the weekend against righty-starters. Fantasy managers are going to be sending him right back to the wire next weekend. With Marlins outfielder Owen Caissie sidelined due to a right calf strain, playing time has opened up for Heriberto Hernández. Hernández has mostly been utilized against LHPs, whom he boasts a .342 ISO and 143 wRC+ against, but he’s been solid against RHPs (.189, 98) as well. The 26-year-old sports above-average power metrics (91.9 EV, 11.9% BRL, 49.7% HH) and has 13 dingers in 228 plate appearances. Here’s hoping manager Clayton McCullough keeps starting the man! Finally, let’s touch on Athletics rookie infielder, Joshua Kuroda-Grauer. The A’s have been snakebit by injuries to Brent Rooker (out for the season), Nick Kurtz, and Zack Gelof, so JKG is earning everyday playing time. The 23-year-old right-handed hitter has been soaking up key lineup slots against southpaws, leading off in Thursday’s contest and batting second in Sunday’s. He’s 19-for-45 (.422) with the A’s and averaged .323 between Double-A and Triple-A over the first three months of the 2026 season. Hopefully, Kuroda-Grauer sticks around long enough to make it to Week 19 (starting July 27) when the Athletics play seven games at home and should face a few southpaws from the Red Sox and Tigers.

Drop of the Week

It wasn’t the first time Mike Burrows was dropped, but it might be his last this season. Burrows was the most dropped in Main Events (60% of leagues), taking his roster percentage in that contest to 22%. Burrows was a prized prospect with the Pirates who had somewhat of a breakout last season. Moreover, fantasy folks have been used to easing up when a talented pitcher moves to Houston to pitch for the Astros. Alas, that was not the case. His first season in Texas was a roller coaster, but one that just keeps going down — a 5.99 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP for a top 200 ADP selection at the end of March, utterly crushed his managers. Never again. Well, at least until 2027 drafts. Depends on his price and what new pitch he learned over the winter, of course. This Just In: the Astros nullified Burrows’ optional assignment to Triple-A and instead placed him on the injured list due to elbow neuritis in his left elbow. That might help explain why Burrows was so ineffective.

Enjoy the Home Run Derby and All-Star break!