Early ADP Observations: First Basemen

With the 2026 season behind us, it’s never too early to begin preparing for the new fantasy baseball season. Steamer released its initial projections for 2027; FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) followed with its projections, and NFBC released 2027 ADP based on completed drafts. Through Tuesday, November 10, there are 25 completed drafts — 11 Draft Champions (50-round, 15-team Draft-and-Hold roto, $150 entry), 12 NFBC 50s (50-round, 12-team Draft-and-Hold roto, $50 entry), and three Gladiators (23-round, 15-team, no bench roto, $50 entry). I am a big fan of colleague Jason R.R. Martinez’s Depth Charts because they integrate playing time projections with Steamer, and eventually ZiPS when those are released.

This series will review early ADP data in paid roto leagues, by position. The goal is multifaceted: to identify draft trends within a position relating to the entire player pool and to highlight specific players who might be over- or under-valued by the early draft market.

Last season was a rare case where only one hitter in the top 360 ADP (Miguel Vargas) started the season with both first base and third base eligibility. This season, there are several more, including the top corner infielder, Sal Stewart. This article will cover all first base eligible hitters, so there will be some overlap when we discuss the third basemen and outfielders. Bryce Harper is the most notable corner with outfield eligibility in all leagues. Among notable corners who lost key position eligibility are Ben Rice (lost C), Alec Burleson and Jac Caglianone (lost OF), Munetaka Murakami (lost 3B), and Luis García Jr. (lost 2B).

Here are the first basemen with NFBC ADPs in the top 165, representing the first 11 rounds of 15-team drafts and near the halfway point of 30-round 12-team drafts. I’ve included some tier breaks among this group of 20, though there are several cases of players living like Tom Hanks on their own ADP Island, such as Matt Olson and Burleson. Much will change over the next few months as drafts continue ramping up.

Upper Crust

The top tier is a group of five bunched closely together in the 20-30 overall ADP range. Valid arguments can be made about any order of preference for these five studs. Among them is one steady and reliable veteran who has been producing a high level since his rookie season when he hit 53 home runs. That of course is Pete Alonso. Since 2019, Alonso leads all of baseball in RBIs by a wide margin — 825 to Matt Olson’s 772 — and is second in home runs behind only Kyle Schwarber, 313 to 307. In his first season with the Orioles, Alonso was the third-best hitter in 5×5 roto, earning $32.5 in 12-team formats. He set career-bests in hard-hit rate (56.2%) and average exit velocity (93.9 mph) while maintaining a barrel rate over 15% and batting a respectable .267. Alonso is the elder statesman of this group at 31 years old. The others are between 23 and 27.

On the flip side, Steamer engineers some serious regression for Miguel Vargas, though much of it is tied into a big drop in plate appearances; he projects for 618 after after playing 159 games and earning 704 PA in his breakout year. He comes in 10th among first basemen on our Auction Calculator using Steamer, and outside the top 10 via Depth Charts, despite the substantially higher projected PAs with the latter. Expect a negative market effect, since early drafters are certainly influenced by these projections. Vargas is much more likely to fall outside the top 30 ADP than Ben Rice.

Rice and Sal Stewart also had massive seasons. Rice, Vargas and Stewart finished back-to-back-to-back (16th, 17th, 18th) on the 12-team Player Rater, all earning second-round value. Rice losing his catcher eligibility definitely effects his early-draft-season price. Stewart has been catching flak on social media for nothing more than winning an award (NL ROY) for which he did not carry a vote. Regardless of our opinion of whether or not he’s deserving, we can’t discredit a rookie hitter who mashed 32 homers and drove in the third-most runs in the Majors. Unlike Vargas and his 82nd percentile sprint speed, we can logically question Stewart’s ability to chip in 20+ swipes next season. His sprint speed percentile (27th) is much lower and he stole just one more base from May through September (eight) than he did in the first month (seven). Moreover, Stewart will have a very difficult time coming close to last season’s results if Elly De La Cruz is traded in the offseason.

Early Verdict: Pay up for Kurtz, draft Alonso, consider Rice and Vargas, pass on Stewart at his current price.

Tier 2 – No Frills

Okay, there’s one frill here — 23-year-old left-handed slugger Jac Caglianone. I keep typing “Cags” into the FanGraphs search bar and might ask the powers-that-be here to make this random, but deserved exception. He was slowly creeping up ADP when drafts kicked off and has moved up nearly a full round since November 1 when Steamer showcased him as the second highest projected first baseman, third in projected RBI, tied with Matt Olson (90). Caglianone and Kurtz were comparable stand-out power prospects in the winter of 2025. Kurtz had that terrific season, while Cags spent a big chunk of his in Triple-A and hit .157 in 62 games as a Royals rookie. In his first full season last year, he only hit 23 home runs, but those flashy underlying power metrics (54.7% HH, 13% BRL, 93.3 EV, 77 bat speed) foretells a scenario of a next-level breakout where even a 40-HR season is plausible.

Matt Olson is entering his age-33 season, having played 162 games in five straight seasons, and exceeding 40 home runs and generating a .250+ ISO for the first time since his monster 2023 season. Bryce Harper just turned 34. He hit 27 homers for a fourth straight year, and maintained a batting average over .260 for the eight straight year. He also played in all 162 games for the first time in his career. Harper hasn’t scored triple-digit runs since 2021 and hasn’t driven in 100+ since 2018. Also, he was caught stealing in six of 13 attempts. It wouldn’t be shocking to see him steal 10+ again, but wouldn’t be a wise projection edit for us to make. The Phillies key hitters are all on the wrong side of 30, but mostly still aging somewhat gracefully. They may add Randy Arozarena to join their Old Man club. Just turning 30, Rafael Devers remains a steady and impressive roto producer. He maintained a 50+ percent hard-hit rate and 93+ mph average exit velocity for the sixth consecutive season. His roto home/away splits last season were close to even, with one massive difference:

• Devers at home: 304 PA – 43 R – 19 HR – 62 RBI – .257
• Devers on road: 329 PA – 45 R – 18 HR – 36 RBI – .259

Devers had season-ending abdomen surgery in mid-September and should be ready for camp, assuming everything starts on time. We hate to play the game of “why draft Player A in Round X when you can draft Player B in Round Y” because draft strategy is complex and layered. Though Olson is a viable target in his ADP range, managers who believe Devers’ 2027 production will be comparable should consider passing on Olson in the 40s and target Devers a few rounds later. Devers is currently underpriced and I expect his ADP to rise.

In my first for the 2027 season (a Draft Champions draft that is still ongoing), I drafted Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at pick 6.04 (79 overall). Devers was taken four picks prior. After kicking the draft off with Pocket Aces (Jacob Misiorowski at pick 12, Tarik Skubal at pick 19) and Kyle Schwarber in the third, taking Guerrero to boost my batting average category made good sense. An annual first/second-round fantasy pick, instinct tells me that the market has gone too far the other way on Guerrero after his atrocious season. He had laser eye surgery last month, though wore contacts prior, and I’m certain that faulty vision isn’t the reason why he only hit nine homers with 57 RBI and a career-low .260 average. Everything that could go wrong for the Blue Jays last season, did. They lost Bo Bichette and the offense around him fell apart, including season-long injuries to Addison Barger and Anthony Santander, among other issues. Moreover, Guerrero dealt with elbow (hit by pitch), back, and hamstring injuries, as well as a concussion in September. Mark Shapiro and his team are going to spend on a big-ticket hitter or two to bolster the lineup. Guerrero should continue to rise up in ADP over the next few months.

Early Verdict: Consider Olson, draft Caglianone but beware the helium, pass on Harper, target Devers and Guerrero while underpriced.

Loaded Middle Tier

Alec Burleson is technically in his own tier if we’re setting tiers by ADP. If we’re heavily weighing last season’s production, we can make a case for him being included in the tier above. Alas, previous season’s production should be part of our formula, but not the end-all, be-all. I discussed Burleson and Stewart in my CI Breakouts Review piece a few weeks ago and maintain that Burleson is aptly priced, but assumptions of a 15-20% regression in standard roto is reasonable. Burleson is a “Build-Fitter”, meaning he’d be a solid target in this 90-100 ADP price range if we’re looking to bolster our roster in RBI and BA.

Munetaka Murakami has prodigious power. In his first MLB season, he sported the second-highest hard-hit rate (56.8%), tied for the fourth-highest EV (93.9 mph), and barreled balls at a rate nearly two ticks higher than the next best barreler — 20.5% for Murakami, 18.6% for James Wood, everyone else at 16.1% or lower. We take the good with the bad as another Build-Fitter who could easily hit 45 homers, along with a bruising sub-.220 average.

Bryce Eldridge produced surprisingly well against left-handed pitchers in his first full season — a 146 wRC+, .206 ISO, and a .294 BA, though his BABIP against lefties was .383. He rocked an impressive 13.2% walk rate and ranked among the top five percent of qualified hitters in hard-hit rate (52.2%) and average exit velocity (92.7 mph). Eldridge is fairly priced now and there likely isn’t much that will move the needle on his ADP over the next three-plus months. Young + Prolific Power is a profile combination that fantasy managers love to chase and Eldridge is one of the current poster boys for it.

Willson Contreras mostly thrived in his first season in the American League with the Boston Red Sox, highlighted by career-highs in HR (27) and RBI (81). He’s turning 35 in May and has reached 550+ plate appearances just once in his 11-year career. Though he was a catcher for much of it, Contreras has a long history of injuries. He’s not a target of mine at this time, though 37-year-old Freddie Freeman in the 11th round (15-teamer) or the 13th (12-teamer) would be. He is no longer a top-20 roto hitter that he’s been for the bulk of his career, but I don’t believe he’s outside the top 80/90 hitters like his current ADP presumes. There won’t be many hitters who can produce 80-20-80, chip in a few steals and help us in batting average over 600+ plate appearances after pick 150. I believe Freeman’s ADP will tick up slightly.

I’d like to see where Jake Bauers signs and plan to discuss him in the outfield article of this series. Luis García Jr. was one of many players who humbled me last season. I advocated for skipping him in drafts last season, despite a reasonable (200+ ADP) price. I’ve had a long-standing theory about avoiding infield-only eligible platoon hitters and García crushed a flyball right through it. García hit 30 HR with 92 RBI, and saw rate increases in several key metrics — ISO from .160 to .244, barrel rate from 9% to 12.1%, and bat speed from 72.4 mph to 74.3. He did it all without facing many lefties (just 16% of his plate appearances) and he joined the fabled Yankees, that should have a healthy Aaron Judge back. Manager Aaron Boone recently stated that García will earn some work at second base, and possibly at third base as well. I don’t have a strong recommendation on him for 2027 yet.

Finally, there’s Josh Naylor and Vinnie Pasquantino. Both available in the mid-100s speaks to depth of the position and perhaps encourages us to not force a first baseman onto our roster early in drafts. Both dealt with wrist injuries that impacted their outputs. Naylor had another season of wise base-running decisions, swiping 30 for a second straight season despite a suboptimal sprint speed. He managed just 10 HR and 57 RBI after averaging 22 HR and 94 RBI over four seasons, despite missing 40-game chunks in two of those. Naylor tweaked his wrist on August 11 and did not hit a home run after that. He had surgery after the season and is expected to fully recover in time for the start of spring training. Pasquantino missed nearly two months in separate chunks. His wrist seemed to be fully healed down the stretch. Over his final 10 games, he crushed six homers with 15 RBI, with a .500 ISO and slashed .350/.395/.850, including two homers against the Guardians in the season finale. Steamer prefers Naylor ($15.7) to Pasquantino ($10.3), though the model is understating Vinnie P’s projected plate appearances. They have him for 553 and Depth Charts bumps him to 616. I won’t project 30 HR, 100 RBI for him outright, but believe he can get there. Both are undervalued and I’d draft either one.

Early Verdict: Highly recommend Pasquantino and Naylor, like Freeman at this price, drafting Murakami for power-starved builds, considering Burleson, likely passing on García, Eldridge, Bauers, and Contreras.