Early 1B Rankings with Commentary
With such a solid response to the commentary added to my starting pitcher ranks last week, I want to do the same for the other positions and today I’ve got my first base rankings ready to go. In addition to the commentary, I’ve also highlighted the tier breakdowns as I see them. I didn’t do this with the SPs, but my February update will include that. We are also going to be rolling out our composite rankings in the coming weeks with several Rotographs authors contributing so stay tuned for those. Each colored bar represents the start of a new tier.
Let me know what you think in the comments below. Who is your favorite mid-round target (starting with Santana) at the position?
February 1B Rankings
| RK | PLAYER | TEAM | ADP | COMMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paul Goldschmidt | ARI | 4 | Pwr production of peers plus bankable SBs (17 per 600 PA) |
| 2 | Joey Votto | CIN | 19 | Consistently excellent and unlocked extra pop w/FB% boost |
| 3 | Freddie Freeman | ATL | 22 | As young ATL tm develops, the R/RBI outlook improves |
| 4 | Anthony Rizzo | CHC | 25 | Not flashy, but fantastic every yr; two 10+ SBs yrs in last three |
| 5 | Jose Abreu | CWS | 43 | Quietly led the AL in total bases (343, 2 more than J.Ramirez) |
| 6 | Cody Bellinger | LAD | 24 | Elite pwr & solid spd cover AVG concerns fueled by K% |
| 7 | Edwin Encarnacion | CLE | 57 | Was every bit as good as Hoskins during Rhys’s run (click) |
| 8 | Wil Myers | SD | 72 | The steals keep him in this tier (48 since ’16) |
| 9 | Miguel Cabrera | DET | 95 | Injuries ravaged ’17, but I can’t bury him off one season |
| 10 | Eric Hosmer | FA | 69 | Hosmer > Miggy at same price, but 2 rds later I’ll take Miggy |
| 11 | Rhys Hoskins | PHI | 51 | The excitement is out of hand at this ADP, but worth top 100 |
| 12 | Carlos Santana | PHI | 173 | Tops a weird middle tier & presents a great value at this ADP |
| 13 | Ian Desmond | COL | 115 | A chance to be cheaper Wil Myers in Coors if healthy |
| 14 | Matt Carpenter | STL | 186 | Keep a close eye on news re: shoulder & adjust accordingly |
| 15 | Marwin Gonzalez | HOU | 115 | Ranked high bc of 1B, OF, SS, 2B elig., but T4/5 among 1B |
| 16 | Joey Gallo | TEX | 116 | Chip-in SBs can’t counter devastatingly low AVG |
| 17 | Josh Bell | PIT | 178 | Pulled the ball a lot more, trading some AVG for HR |
| 18 | Ryan Zimmerman | WAS | 126 | Surge was health-related as skills have always been there |
| 19 | Jose Martinez | STL | 278 | Petriello highlighted how we could see a huge season here |
| 20 | Justin Smoak | TOR | 147 | Massive K% drop fueled the breakout |
| 21 | Matt Olson | OAK | 120 | Hit 47 HR in 559 PA in AAA/MLB, but 26 HR per 600 PA in MILB |
| 22 | Trey Mancini | BAL | 159 | Posted a .306 AVG in 2053 MILB PA |
| 23 | Justin Bour | MIA | 192 | Had 73 RBI in 129 gms when MIA scored 3.8 R/G in ’15 |
| 24 | Yulieski Gurriel | HOU | 209 | Maybe pair him w/Gallo as 1B/CI to boost AVG w/a late pick |
| 25 | Gregory Bird | NYY | 155 | Love the talent, but hype could go too far again so be careful |
| 26 | Eric Thames | MIL | 187 | Line w/out Apr: .226/.335/.455, ~30 HR/60 RBI/80 R over 162 |
| 27 | Yonder Alonso | CLE | 308 | Breakout supported by real chg. & new park/lineup will help |
| 28 | Chris Davis | BAL | 248 | One-time top HR hitter couldn’t get in on HR craze w/just 26 |
| 29 | Hanley Ramirez | BOS | 328 | Only 18 gms at 1B so doesn’t qualify everywhere |
| 30 | Brandon Belt | SF | 304 | Would’ve had first 20 HR seas. w/health; avg of 126 gms/seas. |
| 31 | Logan Morrison | FA | 286 | Had 38 HR in 601 PA after 31 in previous 901; needs a team |
| 32 | Ryon Healy | SEA | 193 | Just 6 HR in final 282 PA (Jul-Oct); likely to bat low in SEA |
| 33 | Wilmer Flores | NYM | 322 | Improvements v. RH offers hope of age-26 breakout |
| 34 | Joe Mauer | MIN | 392 | AVG return thrust him back to fantasy relevance as CI/UT |
| 35 | Matt Adams | WAS | 469 | Surged w/ATL and will face almost only RH (.896 OPS in ’17) |
| 36 | Mark Reynolds | FA | 384 | At worst a home-only option if he returns to COL |
| 37 | Lucas Duda | FA | 444 | Career .249/.356/.486 w/30 HR per 600 PA v. RH |
| 38 | Adam Lind | FA | 492 | Under .883 OPS v. RH just once in last five seasons |
| 39 | Tommy Joseph | PHI | 535 | No favorable split & PT will be sparse w/Santana addition |
| 40 | Adrian Gonzalez | NYM | 526 | Age-36 coming off career-worst season (69 wRC+ in 252 PA) |
| 41 | Mitch Moreland | BOS | 402 | Just 1 yr of 100+ wRC+ in his last 5; AL-Only option at best |
| 42 | Mike Napoli | FA | 545 | Had 4 months under a .175 AVG & career-high 34% K |
Rizzo is great but I think he is a little better in real life than in fantasy because his lowish babips seem to be for real.his k rates are super good but still he only hits like 270 due to babip.
Rizzo is bad
I’m not sure if this comment is meant to suggest he should be lower. He probably is better IRL v. fantasy because of his OBP and defense, but otherwise he’s .280-30-100-90 a year the last four seasons. In two of them he has double-digit SBs. I’m not even a huge Rizzo fan, but he’s a stud in the midst of his prime.
Great list, Paul. I agree with Dominikk85 in spirit, but I also can’t see who would jump from below Rizzo to above him. Abreu has a marginal lead in average, but loses in every other category. AND Abreu is reliant on high BABIPs which may disappear without warning.
Would Rizzo having 2b eligibility in an OBP 5×5 league make him a top 5 player?
For mid-round targets, I’d say Smoak, Bird and Olson all have a very good shot at matching or exceeding Santana & Carpenter…and Desmond if he doesn’t steal 15+…they could also overtake Cabrera & Hosmer.
I was shocked with Yonder’s ADP, 21st round. I expect some regression based on 2H, but at that price point, he’ll be a CI on a number of teams (most OBA, FWIW). I shouldn’t have to reach until after the 15th round. Love the early rankings… keep up the great work!
Santana is definitely my favorite mid round target. I don’t know how his ADP is so low. I think he will be just as good if not better in Philly and is just a very consistent player. I honestly don’t see a huge difference between him and Hosmer.
How does a bench player get ranked 19th?! Raw talent or not, I can’t see how it’s justified taking Jose Martinez on the hope that one of his teammates suffers a serious injury over several guys with guaranteed playing time.
Eh, Roster Resource has Martinez in at 1B. – https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-st-louis-cardinals — he’ll get plenty of PA if he hits as expected
BTW, I know RR isn’t the bible. That was the source I used. Obviously as the spring plays out, we’ll get clarity. That said, I’ve too often taken guys in April bc “they’re the starter” even when I believed the backup was better only to see that backup outplay and wrest the job from the guy I took.
That’s a good point, Paul. Always go with the more talented player. This also goes for the #6 rotation guy who is better than many of the guys above him (Looking at you, Chad Green). Eventually it shakes itself out.
That being said, Martinez is going to have to outhit Carpenter, who is not likely to go back to third. While Carp will probably miss some time, I don’t see Martinez doing enough to take his job. That’s a tall order.
He only has to outhit Gyorko, Carp can play 3rd, not exceedingly well mind you
People hung up on projected at bats for Jose Martinez in the preseason will be their downfall, like with Conforto and his basement price last year.
A much-needed sign of spring!
Do you attribute the higher ADP for Bellinger vs Rizzo to outfield eligibility or the exuberance of (drafting) youth?
I get the sense it’s door #3: upside. We know what Rizzo will do (and it’s great/safe). But Bellinger could eventually evolve into the future successor to Goldy at the top of the 1B pos rankings (if he can improve the Ks and maintain his 40+/10+ full season pace).
Honestly, Rizzo could be that successor this year and he’s already better than Bellinger so I can’t really get behind taking Belly over Rizzo. I think it’s more the excitement of youth v. the boringness of stability. The fantasy community greatly underrates the upside of established guys and it shows with these two. Though, we are talking just one spot.
Not sure people are burying Cabrera off one season. He’s only hit over 25 HR once in the last 4 years. Even if the bat skills bounce back, teams can pitch around him, and with those wheels, he needs big volume on plate appearances or he’s going to be a nonfactor in every counting category. Factor in age and health questions…
I think your bet is too optimistic.
Ya, I understand the skeptics re: his health, but I don’t have major skills questions if the health is in place. You cite the homer piece without mentioning that he’s also hit .305 in that time, even with last year’s shit season (.320 and 26 HR per 600 PA in the 3 yrs before that).
I also think the pitch around factor is often overblown with studs on bad teams. I just don’t think we see it nearly as often as its projected. First off, it’s easier said than done unless you’re spiking four in the ground or IBB’ing him, plus if the Tigers are losing as often as expected, there’s just no need.
It reminds of what Christopher Harris in the fantasy football world calls “a crutch argument”. It sounds good as a narrative to not take (or in some cases to take a guy, depending on the argument), but rarely plays out as suggested in practice.
I understand the concerns, but they’re also built into the price already as he’s 80 picks cheaper than last year. We’ll have more clarity once ST kicks off, but I think too many are burying him prematurely.
The most startling thing about these rankings is the paucity of American League first basemen who are worthy of a high pick or big salary. Your top pick (Abreu) is at best a late 2nd-rounder and more likely a 3rd rounder in an A.L-only league, Encarnacion is likely another 3rd rounder, Miggy carries big injury risk, and that brings you down to a tier that might include Marwin Gonzalez, Joey Gallo and Justin Smoak. It make sense to wait later for a 1B (or spend less) and bet on upside. There are better picking among 3B: Jose Ramirez, Josh Donaldson, Alex Bregman, Kyle Seager, Adrian Beltre, Manny Machado, Miguel Sano, and Matt Chapman to name a few.
It’s pretty nuts, right? Abreu/EE early (and I’m personally in on Miggy a little after them, but understand the skeptics) or wait.
Ranking them based on ADP is a bit confusing. Makes it more of a draft guide than a ranking.
that’s why I didn’t rank them that way!
The “Hosmer>Miggy at the same price” line is confusing when you have Miggy ahead of Hosmer.
Not confusing at all. He’s saying he’d rather have another player at 69 and Miggy at 95 than Hosmer at 69 and another player at 95.
while this is likely what Paul meant to convey. The actual meaning of “Hosmer > Miggy at same price, but 2 rds later I’ll take Miggy” is that at one given price, he prefers Hosmer to Miggy, but at a lower price, he prefers Miggy to Hosmer.
Re: Anon, Yeah but that’s not what these rankings are for! ADP is of course super useful/important, but if you change your ranks based on it, then it becomes a ranking for value and not production.
I agree in situation like this should still have Hosmer above Miggy. Then the comment already explains that the value is better for Miggy based on his ADP so we’re good.
You did though. In your comments you stated you ranked Hosmer behind Miggy because of ADP.
Actually yeah that is kind of a good point, although given that they’re next to each other I think the implication is that the ADP acts as something of a tiebreaker. Paul’s comment basically gives you all the information you need, it’s not really confusing.
Exactly. Maybe I should’ve put Hosmer = Cabrera in a vacuum, but Cabrera at his cost is easily the way to go IMO. I was trying to acknowledge that they’re similar in that AVG drives their value with solid-but-not-elite pop. Hosmer has the age advantage and there’s Miggy’s health, but I’d just never take Hosmer when I know I can wait for Miggy.
But even conceding the Hosmer/Miggy thing, these rankings are still very clearly not *based* on ADP. Using that one to comment to suggest the whole list was an ADP guide was what struck me. If Nathan only meant the EH/MC thing, he should’ve stated as much.
Votto/Freeman/Rizzo in the 2nd round are gifts; another good argument for taking a pitcher #1.
I also like getting a shortstop (Turner/Correa) and then one of those 1B in the 2nd
I’m buying Bird. He will be sandwich between some big time power and average guys. That translates into seeing better pitches and runs usually.
selling Bellinger. To those who didn’t watch him continually look pathetic vs. the slider in WS.
Rank ALL the positions!
“With such a solid response to the commentary added to my starting pitcher ranks last week, I want to do the same for the other positions and today I’ve got my first base rankings ready to go”
Mid tier I’m going Gallo. Best upside of the group, solid lineup, no injury history of note, and only needs to do one thing to take the next leap. Even if he cuts his Ks to “just” 30-31% that could put him on a course to .245/.250 and a top 20 line (if he his .250, that’s got to spell 50 homers).
I hear you with the Gallo pick. I’ve got a share of him myself already, though it’s a pretty big “only” that he’s never really shown. Agreed that cutting to that 30% would boost AVG, but it wouldn’t necessarily come with more HRs.
Best case is peak Chris Davis, but it’s very unlikely that he’ll ever go beyond .230. Davis had that ’15 spike and then went right back down to .221/.215 the next two seasons. History shows that guys with this kind of AVG deficiency don’t ever really fix it.
If best case is peak Chris Davis….we should be buying. Chris Davis had the 4th best fantasy season of our lifetime in 2013.
Ya, buy within reason. Just because best case is a high bar doesn’t mean you overvalue a player as the best case is always unlikely to happen
It looks like you better grab one of the top 6 by the second round.
This might be contrarian but I would take Freeman #1 on 1B ranking, especially if I can get him at his #22 ADP.
I don’t hate that. He’s awesome.
Bird hype will be too high, but he will finish top 10 1B if healthy this year no doubt.
lol that’s an interesting comment. how will the hype be too high if he will “no doubt” be top 10? that doesn’t really make sense. btw, there’s plenty of doubt about him finishing top 10, healthy or not
Bird could be a solid pick for deeper leagues, but his value seems limited. What he offers is what is easiest to find (with the juiced ball). 30 HR 90 RBI and .250 AVG are useful, but can be found with better upside.
Total number of players projected for .250/30/90 at all positions per Steamer: 17.
Total number that are 1B: 7
You can probably add another couple dozen at all positions that barely miss those arbitrary cutoff numbers, but let’s not go casting aside .250/30/90 quite so easily.
I think he’s going to be a lot better in obp and ottoneu. I’m in.
Where would you slot in Ryan McMahon? Hoping for a big ST.
I don’t understand your rankings. “Hosmer > Miggy at same price”, but you ranked Hosmer below Miggy. Unless I’m missing something, a straight ranking of 1B should be “is this guy better than this other guy.” Instead you appear to have factored ADP into their rankings?
Marwin Gonzalez is “Ranked high bc of 1B, OF, SS, 2B elig., but T4/5 among 1B”. Then he should be ranked in tier 4/5 of 1B. His eligibility at multiple positions should have no impact on his 1B ranking. If you’re playing Marwin Gonzalez as your starting 1B, you are starting a fifth tier option.
I agree on Hosmer and Miggy, but Gonzalez’s positional flexibility definitely should factor into his fantasy ranking. It should be assumed that these are general value rankings and not exclusively 1B rankings because people don’t really draft or bid in a positional vacuum, at least not on 1B.
Some of yall really bugging out over a 1 spot difference between Hosmer/Miggy. I guess I get it somewhat but the fact is I’d never take Hosmer when I know I can get Miggy later
I don’t understand all these people wanting to view rankings in a vacuum. If you guys have such strong views over whose numbers will be better, what do you need these rankings for? The whole point of using rankings is to suss out some concept of “value”, and he’s injecting his opinion of value with his commentary. What’s hard to understand?
Paul,
Great work on both sp and 1b writeups!
In AL only league. How concerned would you be about keeping Abreau?
Paul, where would you put Morrison if he had a team? Let’s just pretend he resigns with the Rays.
I feel like Bird at #25 is way too low, hype train or not. Injury is certainly a concern, but you aren’t drafting him as your starter except in really deep leagues. I can recognize its a big Tier, but I see Bird closer to 19/20 than 25.
I believe I would have 5 of Gonzalez (why does he gain in 1B rankings because of eligilibity–wouldn’t you play him elsewhere), Bell (was last year his ceiling?), Zimmerman (his own injury concerns), Martinez (why risk at almost 30 when Bird has done more in about the same games at 25), Manicini (can see him getting edged out in every category vs Bird, save SBs & AVG maybe, OBP league-to-Bird, at the same ADP), Bour (Bird has a big advantage over him in Rs + RBIs), Gurriel (better ADP for him than Bird, but also see him getting beat in all categories except a handful of SBs) after Bird.
Hoskins gonna move straight up this list, boy!
You expect Bell to outperform projections of his power, right? Right now I see him closer to Brandon Belt (who’s actually a nice player) than Greg Bird. But man, that middle tier is weird.
I think people are sleeping on Bell. His approach is just excellent and he has man power. I see an reasonably high average/obp 25+HR season.
i’m buying shares in Justin Bour this year. Had a great breakout last year derailed by injury. I think he’s closer to the top of that 4th tier.
Bour in a vacuum is fine, and he’d be a great pick if he were on any other team. But he’s going to really struggle to accumulate runs + RBIs with replacement level offense surrounding him.
I picked up Bour early last year and was geeked about him this year as a nice late round pick-up. . . .until the Marlins cleaned house (& they still might not be done of course). Man that team is going to struggle to score runs. Realmuto is obviously a solid catcher (though probably not a good as some think he is) and Prado/Castro will be meh veterans with no upside. Dietrich is a solid utility guy. After that, it gets real, real ugly.
Bad park, incredibly bad team. Hate to say it because I like him as a late-20’s breakout but I’m probably going to pass. TO me his upside now is in OBP leagues because he might get pitched around a LOT this year.
I was looking at Bour’s numbers: throw out his 23 PA in the minors the last 2 years and Bour has posted a wOBA between .325 and .379 at every single stop/season he has made from rookie ball through the majors.
I mean, guy puts up a .350 wOBA in rookie ball and you’re thinking “Definitely not going to make it.” Guy puts up a .350 in the majors and you think “That’s a pretty decent number.”
Ya, really depends what they do with the rest of the lineup. My comment on him was purposeful as he showed he can drive in runs on a 29th-ranked offense
Bour will also get the opponent’s best lefty relievers every crucial late inning situation now that he is the main guy. In general if a player is the only significant lefty hitter on a team I downgrade them a bit.
I am a big fan of Bour but it is hard to imagine a worse lineup for him.
David Shcoenfeld’s recent article brought up a good point about the Marlins: if Realmuto is traded (or has a bad season), who is that team’s All-Star next year? Bour has almost no shot with all the 1B in the NL. Can’t see Prado, Castro or Dietrich and none of the prospects are very good bets. Their SP all stink.
This has all the makings of one of those situations where a random guy flukes his way to a big 1st half and 5-10 years from now you say “Wait, XXXX was an All-Star?”
It’s ugly for sure. Castro could be the guy. Or maybe Barraclough randomly stops walking guys for 2 months and makes it. He’d definitely be a “HE MADE IT??” guy.
Paul, great stuff as always. I assume Ryan McMahon and Dom Smith would both be in last tier?
Constructive criticism, I really like your work in general. Thanks! but…
What format are these rankings for?
I assume its 5×5 R,HR,RBI,SB,BA because batting average was mentioned one more time than OBP in the notes, and it explains Jose Abreu being ranked higher than Carlos Santana.
Format makes such a massive difference in these value rankings (potentially sending some guys up or down 20+ ranks depending on rules), that you just HAVE to explicitly mention what format you’re ranking for. This list is useless for OBP leagues, and without a disclaimer that you don’t expect it to be useful for OBP leagues (etc.) then you will create disgruntled customers who believe you to be either fraudulent or stupid.
While I’m on this topic, I would love to read a piece about some of the more jarring value shifts amongst different popular league types…
Billy Hamilton (points leagues)
Any 1B who hits for average (looking at you Hosmer and Abreu)
Maybe even get into the SP/RP value split if you move to a 6×6 with SV and HLD (thus creating an extra RP category)
Always standard 5×5…. I’d state otherwise if it was different.
“without a disclaimer that you don’t expect it to be useful for OBP leagues (etc.) then you will create disgruntled customers who believe you to be either fraudulent or stupid.”
Come on man, what makes more sense…
1. I assume all of my customers are familiar with my unstated default preferences.
vs.
2. I add one sentence to my rankings articles. (which, apparently you’re going to have to do in the comments anyway)
Constructive criticism for you… never suggest you’re delivering constructive criticism and then suggest the author will be thought of as fraudulent or stupid. It basically kills any chance of being taken seriously.
It’s not *my* unstated default, it’s the industry default.
I’m not allowed to point out that doing something in a particular way is likely to elicit a particular reaction from the customer base?
People thinking you are fraudulent or stupid does not make it so. And me suggesting that people will think such, is not the same as me suggesting that you are such.
Even if it is the industry default, which, I take your point, but I still dispute. It doesn’t make it the correct course of action.
The fact of the matter is, you’ve now gotten into a dispute with a customer unnecessarily. It was constructive criticism, because I was simultaneously pointing out a failing, while suggesting a way to fix it. You may be happy saying, “I’m ok letting at least some of my customers be confused, because that’s the way everyone else does it”, but why? just add another sentence.
Is the problem here that you think adding a sentence that says what format you’re ranking for would be too much work?
Is the problem here that you don’t actually like constructive criticism?
Is the problem here that you misread or misinterpreted my comment as attacking you, and then you got defensive?
Are you saying nobody was confused?
Are you saying I’m an outlier for being confused and don’t deserve your time and attention?
Option 1: Add a sentence to rankings articles that stipulates the format you’re ranking for.
Option 2: Dont.
Possible reasons you would choose option 2:
Adding a sentence makes the article worse
– Not sure how it would do that, maybe you’re super worried about word count?
Adding a sentence is too much work
– I get it, I’m lazy too
Adding a sentence would make me right, and you don’t like me very much, because I suggested you aren’t perfect.
– I’d put my money on this one, its an extremely common human reaction
As an aside, regarding your constructive criticism for me (which was constructive criticism, because it was pointing out a flaw, and suggesting a fix), In my career as a management consultant, I have found this to be incorrect. In fact, a large part of my job is pointing out all the terrible things that outside viewpoints will see when looking at an organization. I frequently HAVE to say “doing such and such will cause your customers to think X about you”. Instead, I would suggest that receiving criticism is a skill. And I imagine it is terribly difficult to take criticism from un-credentialed strangers via relatively short snippets of text, particularly when lots of it may be far off base, but it may be a worthwhile thing for you to practice.
Things to remember:
Messenger =/= Message
If your immediate instinct is that someone else is very wrong, wait for your next 2-4 instincts.
Paul, great list, thanks for the insight. Going into this year I want to grab someone in that Yankees lineup. I actually think Greg Bird could be an after thought in a lot of drafts and a great value pick. I am in one league that is OBP and Total Bases instead of AVG and HR. I am keeping Goldy but have my eyes on Gallo as a UTIL/IF guy as well. Looking forward to seeing the other rankings.
It depends how his spring goes. Remember, he was boosted into the top 100 last year after a big spring and that was after starting much lower. This year he’s starting at 150 so if he goes off again, he’ll soar into the top 100 easily
I am going to be taking Chris Davis as a flyer in 2018. I think that a huge power season is as possible for him as it is for anyone on that list. At that ADP, you don’t have a great deal of upside in most players.
Ya he can’t hurt us at this cost
I’m hoping Hoskins gets drafted too early by an impatient team and I can trade for him during an April slump. How on earth is Desmond getting drafted so far ahead of Santana? Honestly i don’t much like any of the mid-range and if I can’t get Santana or higher I’d rather take a flyer on Alonso or LoMo.
Im in love with Hoskins. He has a lot of helium obviously but looking at his approach there is a lot to like. He is good at making contact as seen by both his Z-Contact and regular Contact Rate and he doesnt swing at garbage as seen by his O-Swing%. He should be about league average on Ks and he hits flyballs. I actually think he is undervalued.
I’m cool liking him, but there’s no way he’s undervalued when his ADP matches his MLB games played. There is virtually no plus value with him. He MUST perform at a high level with this ADP.
After the top 5 guys, there is a lot of warts on these players.
Bellinger is basically Hoskins with more downside. Sure he gets more steals but the Swing Str% (13.2%) and his awful contact (69.6%) means he could see a significant sophmore slump. Hoskins is more likely to repeat what he did last season but gives you significant Avg upside.
EE is declining significantly. His contact rate has declined 4 consecutive years as his swinging strike rate has increased. He has been in the .255-.260 range the past few years and could backslide from there. He doesnt give you anything in steals so a Avg in the .240s isnt worth his ADP IMO.
I like Myers but his surrounding cast kills him. I think he maintains the steals but he doesnt have much upside in RBIs or Rs.
Miggy is on my do not draft list. Cant trust he will be healthy. The juice isnt worth the squeeze here.
I need to see where Hosmer ends up before I decide on if I have him over Hoskins.
I gotta pushback on the notion that EE is “declining significantly”. He has held up brilliantly in his early-30s and while I understand there is a risk with any 35-year old in general, his profile hasn’t shown anything to be terribly fearful of for ’18. Anyone would kill for .881 OPS to be their “decline”.
I don’t dispute the notion of warts after the top 5 (though it’s kinda obvious and applies to virtually every position which is why stars are valued so highly), but you’re projecting a lot on Hoskins after 50 games. He was great in those games and has a nice MiLB track record, too, but there will be a league adjustment.
In fact, it was taking shape in the final 16 games when he had a .485 OPS, 0 HR, and 29% K. He still had a nice 17% BB, but the league was starting to find some ways to get him out.
Again, it’s not that I’m against Hoskins, but he’s certainly not undervalued in any way.
Hoskins 2018 is pretty similar under the hood to Carlos Santana’s debut, with the exception of HR/FB.
As written about elsewhere on the site (maybe Jeff Z?), MiLB HR rates lag behind MLB HR rates these days, so for a guy like Olson, I’m not really sure what the comp between his MLB/MiLB rates is supposed to mean? Sure we expect him to regress from last year, but not all the way to the MiLB rate.
Yep, think everyone understands that there’s more HR hit in MLB these days. Wasn’t suggesting he’d only hit his MiLB rate, just pointing out the disparity
Is it possible Trey Mancini is undervalued/ranked too low? Isn’t .300/30/75 (RBIs conservatively in BAL’s still-solid lineup and Camden’s bandbox) just better than most of the players above him? Even if Gallo hits 40homers, there could be a 100-point BA difference in some not extreme scenarios (.210 vs. .310, for example).
I get Hoskins hype is high. But he’s a better fantasy player than Hosmer even if he is 3/4 the player he was last year. Both are big OBP players. But Hoskins power is on another level than Hosmer. Frankly, your rankings are buying the hype on Bellinger but not Hoskins. They should be next to each other at 6-7.
Not really. It’s not hype with Bellinger because he’s actually done it for a season. Hoskins still has plenty to prove.