E-Cab Isn’t Uber, In Need of a Lyft

The 2014 season was not what most envisioned for Everth Cabrera. From the hangover of a 50-game suspension following the Biogensis scandal to separate hamstring-related disabled list stints and finally an arrest for suspicion of driving under the influence of marijuana, this year was disappointing for a variety of reasons. Cabrera had tons of hype and owned a pre-season rank of 4th best shortstop, but failed to crack even the top-25 of Zach Sanders’ end of season shortstop rankings, coming in at number 30.

Since the beginning of 2013 Cabrera has played in just 185 games. Including his two stints this past year due to hamstring issues, Cabrera also missed time in 2013 with a left hamstring strain. His running game — a vital part of his fantasy value — has no doubt taken a hit as Cabrera posted a mere 18 steals this past season on 26 attempts (69% success rate). Those numbers pale in comparison to even his shortened 2013 campaign where he nabbed 37 bags and was caught 12 times (75% success rate).

Cabrera’s triple slash, never a strength, took a step back after his impressive .283/.324/.324 in 2013. This year Cabrera’s numbers took a nose dive to .232/.272/.300 before his season ended in the wake of the September arrest. Given his speed and skill set, it should come as no particular surprise to see batted ball fortune playing an especially significant role in his value. Following a .337 BABIP in 2013 Cabrera owned a .294 BABIP in 2014. Compared to2013, Cabrera did post a basically identical .336 BABIP in 2012, however he still failed to hit .250 on the season. Even then his speed didn’t equate to a ton of infield hits, as he ranked tied for 52nd with 13 IFH in 2013. This year his 66.9% GB% was the highest in baseball, minimum 350 PA’s. If his speed to first was hampered due to his hamstring issues, that would begin to explain his poor season. With a .317 career average in almost 2,000 plate appearances it’s relatively safe to say his true talent mark is somewhere between the high water mark of 2013 and the disappointing 2014.

Of course not everything can be boiled down to BABIP however, and if we examine Cabrera’s swing rates we see a concern.

	Swing%	O-Swing%	Contact%	SwStr%	BB%	K%	F-Strike%
2014	44.7%	29.4%	81.1%	8.3%	5.1%	22%	56.3%
Career	41.6%	26.7%	81.9%	7.4%	8.7%	20.9%	59.4%

Despite not getting behind 0-1 on the first pitch as often, Cabrera managed to strikeout at a higher rate than normal and cut his walk rate 40%. It is anecdotal, however if he was feeling the pressure to perform and get hits, that type of attitude would explain his swing rates, in particular chasing out of the zone at a higher frequency. We see a pretty clear downturn in the majority of Cabrera’s offensive numbers, however with the off-field distractions, it is possible he’ll bounce back and post a strong 2015. That being said, factor in his recurring hamstring issues and he’ll be hard pressed to replicate the kinds of batted ball numbers from 2012-13. Rather than being a top grade shortstop like he was in 2013, expect more of his 2012 numbers; useful, but not top 10.