Tinkering With Ottoneu Arbitration Selections

Ottoneu arbitration ends on November 14. We’re edging closer to the conclusion of voting season and the beginning of trading season. In FanGraphs Staff Two, 10 out of 12 teams have submitted their allocations. Now makes for a good time to tinker with my initial picks. You can read about my first pass through arbitration here.

The ottoneu arbitration page contains three pertinent sections: allocations to your team, allocations from your team, and other allocations. Each contain teachable lessons. We’ll talk about the first two sections today, starting with what nine owners have allocated to my team.

Allocations To Me

At risk of helping my opponents optimize their allocations, this isn’t how I expected the money to be distributed. Were I bidding against myself and able to manipulate all the money allocated, I would have pumped over $10 into Paul Goldschmidt ($31), $10 into Yasiel Puig ($14), and left a dollar or two for George Springer ($4) and Edwin Encarnacion ($25). I wouldn’t have bothered bidding on Corey Kluber ($12) given the availability of similarly elite position players.

My rationale is pretty simple. My first target in arbitration is any established, dynasty quality asset. Even with my recommended bids against Goldschmidt and Puig, I can easily picture keeping both for the next four years while earning a modest profit. If Kluber posts another outstanding year, he can always be bid up next season.

The various risk factors involved with pitchers influence my thought process. Injuries are an obvious threat. Pitchers suffer more injuries than position players, and they suffer more major injuries. You know, the kind that can permanently reduce a pitcher’s skill set. Additionally, the massive supply of starting pitchers seemingly makes it easier for an owner to recover if they have to kick a Kluber to the curb.

Allocations From Me

As of writing this sentence, I haven’t tinkered with my arbitration values yet. We’re going to walk through my process in real time (sort of).

The first thing to do is identify which players are out of place. As I noted earlier, my first preference is to target long term assets and position players. With that in mind, Andrew Miller, Julio Teheran, Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy, Sonny Gray, Jose Fernandez, and Jorge Soler look like odd choices. In reviewing the picks of others, a few noteworthy players I didn’t bid upon include Anthony Rendon, Chris Sale, and Jose Altuve. I may want to consider targeting those players.

Miller and Teheran are both owned by the same team (along with Matt Carpenter). The owner in question has few assets I would call extremely valuable. However, bids on Miller and Teheran strike me as wasteful. I removed both bids for now.

I remember now why I spent a dollar on Dozier. His owner has assembled an all-prospects team. He won’t compete in 2015, so it made no sense to tab more than $1 in his direction. And with few major league assets to target, a $5 Dozier is probably his most valuable established player. I’ll keep this bid.

Murphy ($11) is owned by our resident injury expert. His team has plenty of useful players, but they’re generally at near market prices. I hemmed and hawed about putting a second dollar into Joey Votto, but I worry he’ll be cut if he reaches a $40 price tag (currently at $38). Ultimately, I decided to take a risk on Josh Harrison ($4). He’s way outside my usual mold, but he impressed me when I watched him play. I think he can be a Ben Zobrist of sorts. I was upset when I didn’t go the extra dollar to land him in auction during the season.

The owner of Gray ($8) also has Rendon ($12), and I can recall no reason why I selected to allocate to Gray. I only tabbed $1 to this owner, but I added $2 to my stockpile when I pulled my bids on Miller and Teheran. I think I may have wanted to target Rendon via trade, but this team is under new management so I’m just going to play the bidding straight – $3 for Rendon.

With Fernandez ($21), I distinctly recall debating within my head whether I should allocate to him, Masahiro Tanaka, or Matt Harvey. All are pitchers with injury concern. I don’t want to be in that racket, so I added a second dollar to Michael Brantley ($7).

The owner of Soler ($7) is another all-prospect team and non-threat in 2015. I could, and perhaps should, throw my dollar on Nolan Arenado ($13), but part of me hopes to re-acquire him. The league has decided Kris Bryant ($11) is worthy of an additional $9 of bids. I don’t get that. He’s the second most allocated player behind Jose Abreu ($18 of allocations). Ultimately, I’ve seen enough of Soler to be convinced he’s an above average major league hitter now. Even if I’m wrong, it’s a dollar. And if I’m right, that dollar will stick for the foreseeable future.

After tinker time, I made five changes to my original allocations. Here’s the updated list.

Parting Thoughts

As usual, let’s discuss the details in the comments. There are a few strategic angles I ignored in this piece, most notably the competitive level of each owner. One reason why I had money on Teheran and Miller was because his owner is particularly active. He’s a threat to my 2015 title bid. In the end, I decided to chase the bigger fish with those $2 and ding Rendon.

There are also other angles to pursue when assigning your bids. I focused on long-term impact while concentrating on the very best assets. There is a case to be made for making a wide range of $1 bids rather than putting all your eggs in one basket. You can also take up a short term approach – a topic which has been hotly debated in my previous articles.