Early ADPs in the Outfield

Sometimes, short and simple is the best way to go. As Sly and the Family Stone said — “Thank You Falletinme Mice Elf Again”… no it was “Sing a Simple Song” — sometimes it’s just about the ABCs, or in this case the ADPs. Let’s look at some Average Draft Positions for outfielders in the early going. We know some drafts start in February, and we know that at least 607 drafts have been completed at Mock Draft Central, so let’s use their excellent knowledge to benefit our fantasy teams.

Assorted thoughts!

* Ryan Braun around the 73rd pick? Yes please! At the 28th pick? When Josh Hamilton is there? Mmm, not so much. If you prorate Braun’s 2011 out to 112 games, you get something that looks a little bit like Hunter Pence plus a few steals, minus some runs and RBI. So I’ll take Braun, but I’d feel way better about it if it was in the fourth round. (Oh and Hunter Pence at #27? That’s buying into his late-season power surge way too much. The difference between Houston and Philly, in terms of parks, is just not enough to make up for the declining steals.)

* Holy variance Carl Crawford. The early (#25) is too early, but around #40, I’ll take a shot at a guy who could easily give you five-plus months of .280 10/50. Okay, maybe I want him towards the end of the fifth or the early sixth. Waiting until the tenth round, however, seems a little excessive. I would have jumped before #120, and the league where he went #325 must have had some straight Boston haters in it.

* Alex Gordon over Sin-Soo Choo? I dunno, it’s true that Choo had some high BABIPs over his career (.353 career), but it’s also true that Gordon had a high BABIP last year (.358), and I’ll take the guy who had 2000+ PAs of the higher BABIP over the guy that just found a nut. Give Gordon his career BABIP, and he’ll hit .270 with 20 homers and double digit steals. Give Choo his career BABIP, and he’ll hit .300 with 20 homers and double digit steals. The Royals offense is getting better, but is it that good?

* Corey Hart, Shane Victorino and Lance Berkman kinda all seem like sleepers where they are. I mean, they’re old(ish), but they’re all decent players. I’d take them all easily over Drew Stubbs, and probably even BJ Upton — at least in 5×5 leagues where his bad batting average undoes most of his other good work. Maybe people just don’t like Victorino, but he has power and speed and won’t usually put up a bad batting average. Maybe the 30-year-old Corey Hart doesn’t quite have the right body type and strikeout numbers to suggest he’ll age gracefully, but this isn’t the time for the cliff edge yet. Maybe Lance Berkman will turn into Fat Elvis again this year…

* I’ll take Jason Heyward before the ninth. For sure. I just did.

* Carlos Beltran will probably out-everything Andre Ethier next year. Then again, he could also easily out-DL him, but it’s not like Ethier comes in with a clean bill of health.

* Can I just say — again — that I love both Logan Morrison and Lucas Duda, but that the separation between them is too much. I did just take them, and I also think they’re both .280 25/80 type guys — the fact that Duda has more of a platoon split might be an issue, but the Mets will want their outfielder to be a full-time guy going forward, so they won’t hide him against all lefties.

* He’s a third baseman first, but Martin Prado shouldn’t be that low, should he? Even .280 15/5 at third base is going to be useful this year. And he could get that BABIP back up again and post another .300 season.

* People know that Josh Willingham hit 29 home runs last year and went to a nicer home park, right? And that he showed some pull power and batted ball distance that might suggest that he can keep his gains?

* If you’re going to bet on a sleeper in the outfield, I’d take the young guy on the team that needs offense (Brandon Belt) over the old guy on a team that has a bazillion outfielders (Vernon Wells). Even if that team is coached by Bruce Bochy.

* This is not ottoneu, but look how low Nyjer Morgan is. If you have a deep bench like they have in ottoneu, consider him. His platoon splits are a weakness, but they are also a strength — his playing time and production is predictable. Same for Seth Smith!

* Ben Revere might have a flawed game, but as a speedster, at that draft spot, he makes a great five-OF guy. Nolan Reimold finished the season strong, and his team needs him. He could be the more powerful sleeper in that tier.

* Once you get to the 90+ section, it gets ugly. I’ll take Will Venable as a lottery ticket — just in case his strikeout gains and some BABIP love make his batting average passable enough — and I guess Josh Reddick as a Jayson Werth-lite guy. Dan Wade’s not giving up on Travis Snider yet, so there’s another ticket for you. The other 20 players will probably combine to hit about .230 next year.