Knocking Down The Door: July 1, 2021
“Knocking Down The Door” is a weekly column highlighting minor leaguers who are making a case for a major league promotion. Listed below are the names of this week’s picks and the player’s team, age, level(s), prospect ranking, and last 10-14 days of statistics.
The analysis can be viewed in the embedded video of the previous day’s episode of The RosterResource Show, a weekly live stream focused on all things related to rosters, transactions, and RosterResource content at FanGraphs.
•Jarred Kelenic (21), OF, Triple-A Tacoma | Seattle Mariners | Prospect Rank: 4 (overall), 1 (organizational) | June 20-June 29: 13-for-36, 3 HR, 2 2B, 3B, 9 RBI, 7 BB, 7 K, 2 SB
If there’s a positive that came out of Kelenic’s disastrous first stint in the majors — he went 8-for-83 with 26 strikeouts — it’s that it would be nearly impossible to do worse in his second stint. Expectations would also be much lower, although Kelenic is still extremely talented and has proven why he is considered one of the best prospects in the game since his demotion to Triple-A. His path to regular playing time is still wide open and he should resume his MLB career very soon.
•Jose Miranda (23), 2B/3B, Triple-A St. Paul/Double-A Wichita | Minnesota Twins | Prospect Rank: 13 (organizational) | June 13-June 29: 32-for-65, 9 HR, 3 2B, 17 RBI, 5 BB, 8 K, 2 SB
Following an impressive stint with Double-A Wichita (.345/.408/.588, 13 HR), Miranda celebrated his 23rd birthday on Tuesday with five hits, including three homers, in his Triple-A debut. Seriously. That is a thing that really happened. It’s not an easy path to playing time in Minnesota at the moment, but it won’t matter if he continues to hit as he has over the past two months.
•Jake Burger (25), 3B/2B, Triple-A Charlotte | Chicago White Sox | Prospect Rank: 34 (organizational) | June 16-June 30: 24-for-51, 4 HR, 5 2B, 3B, 15 RBI, 5 BB, 10 K
Burger’s audition at second base — he’s started four times at the position — could prove to be irrelevant if the White Sox acquire Eduardo Escobar from the Diamondbacks, which has been rumored. Still, it won’t matter if he’s blocked by Yoán Moncada at third base because he could end up being the team’s best option at designated hitter if Yermín Mercedes doesn’t starting hitting again soon. Burger could also be a trade chip. He’d be a great fit in Arizona, although trading him for a rental probably isn’t the best idea. Expanding the trade to include additional player(s) who could help the White Sox beyond 2021 could make sense.
•Shane Baz (22), SP, Triple-A Durham | Tampa Bay Rays | Prospect Rank: 102 (overall), 7 (organizational) | June 22-June 27: 10 IP, ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 15 K
Luis Patiño is reportedly going to make a start on Friday, which puts him in the driver’s seat to lock down a rotation spot if he pitches well. He’s been terrific in his last four Triple-A starts, allowing only one run while striking out with 28 strikeouts in 19 innings. But, even if the 21-year-old does enough to stick around, the Rays aren’t likely to be done auditioning pitchers who can help the team down the stretch. Next in line could be Baz, who dominated in seven Double-A starts (2.48 ERA, 32.2 IP, 2 BB, 49 K) and has had no problems against Triple-A hitters (14 IP, 2 ER, 3 BB, 20 K). In his last five starts, the 22-year-old has allowed only two runs in 24 innings with three walks and 34 strikeouts.
I kind of wonder what is going on with the Rays. Pretty clearly McClanahan and Hill are going to be used as traditional starters. But everyone else? No clue, and I don’t see why it’ll be any different for Patino or Baz. Neither one has thrown more than 5 IP in any start this year so the Rays clearly aren’t going to run them out there for 6, 7, 8 innings. You’re looking at 5 IP max and there is no guarantee that the Rays don’t go McClanahan, Hill and then 3 bullpen games with nobody tossing more than 3 or maybe 4 IP.
Im waiting for the Rays to announce they will throw 3 guys for three innings in a game.
I have Patino and Baz stashed. Agree with your concern about them not even pitching 5 innings and having no chance for a Win. I was surprised when they demoted Patino earlier in the year. He was pitching fine for them and seemed to be in line for piggy backing a lot with McClanahan. Hopefully, they’re both up soon and do well. I could use the shot in the arm. Disappointingly, my other Rays stash – Vidal Brujan – doesn’t seem likely to get the call anytime soon. He’s really fallen off badly after a hot start.
Patino’s demotion was justified. He experienced difficulties throwing first-pitch strikes (43.5%) and retooling his changeup was necessary. A return to the bigs suggests adjustments were made. I expect the Rays will then play it by ear on whether he is capable of going deeper than 5 innings in a start (similarly to McClanahan).
Curious what makes it not an easy path to playing time in Minnesota for Miranda? 1st, 2nd and 3rd all have bodies, but nothing special about any of them, in what is a lost year for the Twins. Polanco in particular not doing anything special, and Donaldson probably a good trade target, no? Plus Kiriloff still a prospect himself and not doing much; maybe Miranda just jumps him. Not to mention the Cruz trade rumors.
Donaldson, Kepler, Sano and Polanco are all signed well beyond this year with the latter 3 being on pretty team friendly deals. Arraez is still pre-arb. Larnach and Kiriloff are prospects themselves who are doing just fine in their 1st taste of the majors – Kiriloff in particular is doing a LOT better by the x-stats. I would also note that while Miranda is crushing it this year, he did almost nothing prior to this year. Both Kiriloff and Larnach were much better prospects. Plus Astudillo is still kicking around in the minors.
HIs best bet is a trade of either Cruz or Simmons (with Polanco sliding back over to SS). Even then, why would they promote a 23 yo, play him every day in a lost season and start his service clock?
Kiriloff is too good a prospect to be sent down for Miranda. Polanco and Donaldson might (should) be traded and Miranda given a chance, but the twins FO hasn’t committed to that yet. Anyways, Miranda just got to AAA, so he’ll probably get at least a couple months there.
Also Donaldson has a 125wRC+ and has homered in 3 straight. He is basically doing what he has always done in the second half of his career, and he is still a well above average third baseman. Also while I think he should be traded, with all the news coming out with Bauer I feel like some teams might not be as interested in someone who is so outspoken.
After a cold start to April, Polanco has a 130 wRC+ since April 30, which is the fourth highest mark in the A.L. among 2B and the third highest among SS.. Even with the slow start and mediocre defence at short, he’s on pace for 2.4 fWAR; if he continues to play as he did in May/June he will be closer to 4 fWAR. The Twins have him signed for two more seasons at $5.1 M a year and he’s already produced value twice that through three months this year. I don’t think there’s any chance Minnesota sits him.
Miranda’s power has taken off this season, which is he can sustain it is a nice match for his contact skills, but he profiles defensively as a corner infielder; he may get a chance after expected trades.
The Rays pitching development program is just ridiculous. That’s all. No one else is even in the same universe.
I don’t know about that, Cleveland’s pitching development has been outright better than Tampa’s until this year. Tampa has a lot more lauded talents that prospect hounds drool over, but Cleveland’s produced much more on-field value from their starters.
Also the Marlins seem to be doing an excellent job as well.
I am in an NL Only Fantasy League and look through these lists first and foremost looking for NL MLer to pick up. And it is weird this season; thus far it seems like there are FAR more AL guys than NL guys. Am I imagining things? Are the AL farm systems better now? More opportunity on AL rosters? Any opinions welcomed!
I said this on the show. This was probably the 3rd consecutive week that I had a list ready to go and realized there was no NL players. So, I had to research some more in order to balance them out. This week, I did some further research and settled on Luis Garcia (Nationals) before realizing that he’s been on the IL for a few days. Thus, only AL players this week.
Not sure why this is the case. Maybe the AL just has better prospects closer to the majors this season.