Danny Espinosa: Reasons for Concern
Note: I have already gone over my main list of 2B keepers for 2012. Today, I am looking at why I didn’t consider Danny Espinosa to be keeper worthy.
Danny Espinosa produced some decent stats in 2011. He was a dual threat with power (21 HRs) and speed (17 SB). One main problem for him was his 0.236 AVG. On the surface, he looks to be a reasonable fantasy option for 2012. After looking at some various numbers, it seems like pitchers adjusted to him in the 2nd half of the season and it may be a rough 2012 season.
Danny started out the season on a tear by hitting 0.242/0.332/0.460 with 15 HRs in the first 3 months. Over the next 3 months, he only hit 0.227/0.310/0.352 with 6 HRs. His production noticeably dropped off during the second half of the season, especially his power numbers.
Besides the drop in power, his BB% increased for 7% to 10% while his K% increased from 25% to 32%. He was getting mixed results from his judgment of the strike zone.
Using Pitch FX data, I looked at why this changed occurred. First here is a run value heat map showing where Danny hits the ball the best.
He definitely likes pitches on the lower half the plate.
Pitchers noticed this trend and began to attack higher up in the strike zone. In the first half the season, 58% of of the pitches in the strike zone were in the lower half of the zone. In the second half the season, it was only 51%. Including all pitches, in the strike zone or not, the percentage of pitches in the lower half of the zone went from 60% to 54%. Pitchers began to stay away from the lower part of the zone.
It is now time for Danny to adjust to the pitchers after they adjusted to him. He will need to find way to improve on the 2nd half of the season. He can’t have a 32% K% to go along with HRs only in the low teens. For him to have a good 2012 season, he will have to make pitchers use the whole plate by hitting the high pitches for a decent average.
With all that bad news, I could see him being a keeper for a team, depending on the cost. He was probably picked up fairly cheap this last year and could be a decent value keeper.
2B is fairly deep going into 2012, so I see no reason to have Danny Espinosa as a keeper, unless at a super low price. His 2nd half drop in production coincided with pitchers staying away from the lower half of the plate. He will need to adjust in 2012 to have a similar season to the first half of 2011.
Jeff, one of the authors of the fantasy baseball guide,The Process, writes for RotoGraphs, The Hardball Times, Rotowire, Baseball America, and BaseballHQ. He has been nominated for two SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis and won it in 2013 in tandem with Bill Petti. He has won four FSWA Awards including on for his Mining the News series. He's won Tout Wars three times, LABR twice, and got his first NFBC Main Event win in 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jeffwzimmerman.
I think Espi has to ditch switch hitting and hit from the right side of the plate – there was a large split between his average and K rate hitting from the right side. From the left he hit for more power, but was striking out at a higher rate.
I’d be happy for him to ditch power for average because we have power bats in the line up
Jeff –
This is food for thought. That said, the whole didn’t-adjust narrative ignores a September surge against better pitching than he saw in August (so it wasn’t due to weak call-ups). If I had to put my money where my mouth was, I wouldn’t be so confident betting against him based on a small SSS second half when you actually look at the way things really played out.
The same Sep where he had 0.412 BABIP, yet still only managed to hit 0.274 because he had a K% of 32%
1st half BB/K: .34
2nd: .35
If you ask me, and I followed him closely because I drafted him a couple years ago, the trouble was where they hit him in the line-up. When Espinosa hit in the latter part of the line-up (he got most of his at-bats in the 6 spot) he hit well.As the #6 hitter, his season line was 272/372/485 in about 250 plate appearances. But then I guess the Nationals decided that since he could get on base as a 6-hitter, then would move him up in the order to lead off or hit #2. I don’t know for sure because I didn’t watch, I only have his stats to go off of, but I am guessing he changed his approach while hitting up there. While hitting 1st or 2nd, he hit 183 with a 256OBP (I don’t feel like figuring out his SLG lol).
I would like to see what Espinosa could do in a full season of hitting #6 in the line-up and not moving him around.
I thought I read where he said he absolutely hated hitting second, but whoever was the manager in the first half just kept running him out there. He thanked Johnson for finally moving him down.
That said, man his SO% is high. A while back I tried to find a similar comp for a 2B. Couldn’t. I love this guy as a player, but he either has to hit for a helluva lot more power or lower that SO rate to more like 20%. I think caution is warranted, but I’ll root for him.
Actually, I think it was johnson who tried him at #2 before moving him back to #6 towards September. But you are right, he does say he feels better at a position where he can just hit his normal way rather than focus on taking pitches. It kind of jibes with Jeff’s concern about the rising ineffective K% and BB%. It does not explain the 30+% K rate in September. Having watched his games, it did seem like he was completely hacking and out of sorts at the start of the month, but now we are slicing small numbers even smaller.
I do think the power is for real, as is the base running skill. As much as Jeff dings him for the BABIP in September, his BABIP was still on the low side for the year. If he hits lower in the order and stops trying to be a #2 hitter, perhaps the K rate gets under control and the average gets a bounce with a more normal BABIP this year. If you bought low, then maybe he is a keeper.
$3 in Ottoneu, I think I keep him for my bench, no? Would you drop him?
I’d keep him at $3. I already cut him at $8.
Espinsosa’s a lot bigger risk in a 5×5 than a linear weights or 4×4 Ottoneu.
Am I nuts to think he is similar to jose valentin at age 24? Valentin was a K/BB guy, and Espinosa is closer to 3:1, but average, obp, slg are similar, both were good defenders at that point, Espinosa had more steals and homers, but both had high wOBA.
That might be a really excellent comp, actually. However, in Valentin’s first pretty much full season he was at 22.7%, and his peak of 27% was very late in his career. If he can get down into that 20-23% range that Valentin lived in and maintains the power, especially if they mercifully turn loose of Desmond and slide him over, we’re good to go.
Even if he’s a 2B, I’d say we should look at Valentin as high floor. Even if he stays roughly in that range, I’d take it.
I know this is a stats site, but Keith Hernandez hates Espinosa’s uppercut swing. Espinosa can’t hit anything in the upper half of the zone and pitchers now know this.