Crowdsourcing an Ottoneu Rebuild
I have a couple of polar opposite seasons in my brief dealings with Ottoneu. In the first year, I was in the lead until the final week, ran out of innings, and finished third. This last year, I ended up with a team younger than Cespedes Family BBQ, and wound up near the back end of the standings.
I know as the writer I’m supposed to be the fantasy expert. But I’m human, and I like help. So today, I’d like to crowdsource my roster and see what you guys think I should do, what I did wrong, so on and so forth. This is a very young team in the middle of a rebuild of sorts, so please keep that in mind.
This is the Fangraphs Staff League II, a points league via linear weights, with 12 other owners. My team name is “Bang the Woodrum.” Heh.
Here’s what I’m looking at presently (post-arbitration):
Bryce Harper – $43
Gerrit Cole – $19
Xander Bogaerts – $12
Gregory Polanco – $12
Byron Buxton – $10
Danny Salazar – $10
Alex Wood – $9
Glen Perkins – $9
Miguel Sano – $8
Lucas Giolito – $7
Collin McHugh – $7
Brian Dozier – $7
Alex Meyer – $6
Archie Bradley – $6
Andrew Heaney – $6
A.J. Pollock – $6
Jon Gray – $5
Carlos Correa – $5
Sean Doolittle – $5
Garrett Richards – $5
Rougned Odor – $4
Melky Cabrera – $4
Brandon McCarthy – $4
Jose Berrios – $2
Hunter Harvey – $2
Tyler Glasnow – $2
Here are the cuts I made:
Mark Appel – $7
Jake Marisnick – $6
Wilin Rosario – $10
Lonnie Chisenhall – $10
Jeremy Hellickson – $4
Jon Niese – $4
B.J. Upton – $10
Aaron Barrett – $4
Oscar Taveras – $5
Colby Rasmus – $13
Chase Headley – $16
Neil Walker – $16
Homer Bailey – $17
J.J. Hardy – $20
Joe Mauer – $28
I really feel like I need to move Bryce Harper. I love Harper, and would love to have him long-term, but the best bet is to maybe try win an auction on him a year from now when arb pushes him over $60. I haven’t gotten much in the way of offers for him — a five-pack of pretty good prospects is it — but I really, really don’t think dumping him outright is the correct move. Cap space would be nice, but right now I have 14 open roster spots and $185 to play with. It’s not a dire situation, and I could probably extort pretty good post-draft or in-season value for him.
Cole’s price is high, but I still love him going forward. I’m banking on a step forward from Bogaerts this year, but that’s pretty pricy for someone coming off the kind of year he had as well. He’s still get more in the draft value-wise, I believe. Salazar came over in a deal for a slightly higher priced Hisashi Iwakuma — a deal I think I’d still make over again. Wood has potential to be a real steal at that price, and I can probably get something pretty nice for Perkins and Doolittle as closers. I like the prices on Dozier, Pollock and McHugh as decent depth, though I’m working with Brad Johnson on a deal that may include McHugh and McCarthy. Call it a McSwap if you wish. I won’t.
Basically the rest of the team is prospects who are borderline too pricy to keep, but would actually still get more in the auction. This league is notoriously weird for that kind of thing.
I’m caught in a pretty weird place, but the cuts on most of these prospects get pretty easy after one more year. I can’t keep $12 Bradley next year if he doesn’t debut this season, for instance. In this sense, I think this year makes sense to go with decent second-tier talent — the Doziers, etc of the world — along with the youngsters to get a feel for who can help me in the short- and long-term.
Admittedly, it isn’t a great place to be in. Thoughts? Gripes on any cuts or keeps? I’d love to hear them in the comments section.
In addition to Rotographs, Warne writes about the Minnesota Twins for The Athletic and is a sportswriter for Sportradar U.S. in downtown Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter @Brandon_Warne, or feel free to email him to do podcasts or for any old reason at brandon.r.warne@gmail-dot-com
First project is to find a better team name.
“Bang the Woodrum?” Really?
Fangraphs league so it’s all in good fun.
I nominate “Interrobang the Woodrum”
…‽
How about the “Strappin’ Jocks”?
Just my $.02, but your team may have a few too many minor league prospects to contend in ’15. My advice is to try to trade Harvey, Berrios, Glasnow (who, as a Pirates fan, I do not think will ever throw enough strikes to live up to his potential) and Giolito for some major leaguers. How many prospects are you looking to carry on a 40 man roster? By my count you have 12 minor leaguers. You might not have a sufficiently deep bench.
Walker and Headley are not terribly overpriced at $16. Since you need to fill MI, you might want to hold Walker.
Harper could stay healthy and put up a monster year, but he has been frustrating so far. At $43 I would be shopping him around actively.
I’m counting about 9 guys who will have close to no impact in the majors in 2015. Its almost impossible to compete this year with that many “dead” roster spots. Ive been successful carrying about 5 minors spots. Even in 2016, most of those 9 will be fresh faced rookies and not liable to help you win. No ottoneu rebuild should take 3+ years
I’ve been competitive the last two years holding 8 to 10 minor league guys. In my league high ceiling minor league talent is easy to move for a useful major league piece if you need it in season. And if you don’t end up competing, those minor league guys are nice to have.
Prospect value is very league dependant, some leagues it is huge, others it is minimal. If everyone carries about 10 prospects, even boarderline top 100 prospects have value (at the right price), but if no one seems to pay any mind to them, they have virtually no value.
I think you can carry up to about 10 before you start having issues with staying competative (so long as they are cheap)
The average league champion in 2014 scored 18,250 points, so use that as a barometer to weigh your place on the win curve. You need a reasonable shot at scoring 17,000+ out of the auction to consider playing aggressively in 2015 (ready to move prospects, active waiver targets, etc.) or otherwise it may be a season to retool.
On the initial look, this team has a ways to before scoring 17,000 seems realistic, but that doesn’t mean you sell off all MLB parts and only hold onto prospects. As you decide who to Keep, Cut, or Shop, it’s important to clarify how you define those categories. For instance, I’d only “Keep” those players that have more value to you in a legitimate, near-term title chase (focus only on 2015 or 2016 – no reason to look beyond that) than the rest of the league (ironically, you won’t really know this until you Shop them, or at least make them publicly available). Some prospects fall into that category; some MLB players fall into that category, so it really depends.
As an example, if you aren’t confident you’ll compete in 2015 (even after a “perfect” draft using $185), Glen Perkins is a guy who will probably bring a bit more in a trade now than he’s worth to you as a borderline contender in 2015 (or 2016). However, you’ll have to decide if it’s a better risk to hold him at his current price or whether the “market” of your league (those teams truly contending) will pay more for him in-season than they will now. Just depends on your league.
Just a guess, but those players that might bring more value to you by trading them away now rather than later might include: Perkins, Buxton, Salazar, Giolito, Bradley. With regards to Harper, I’d keep him @ $43, even if you don’t see yourself as a true contender in 2015. He has the talent to earn $43 in season, and if you cut him he’ll likely be purchased close to that in the auction. If he does break out in 2015, you’ll want the option to keep him for a real run at the title in 2016 (or use him to shield away arbitration), and a Harper breakout could mean he will bring back way more during the season than trading him away now anyway. In other words, you have to spend the money somewhere, and not every player you own can have on-paper “surplus” value at all times (especially in the off season). Winning teams have plenty of players at market prices (and lots of veterans), so there’s nothing wrong with keeping or paying full price for a player you believe can earn their salary in actual production. Specifically, Harper’s hype will always keep his stock high – he’s a great guy to shop in-season when you will need to retool.
Also, this (https://ottoneucommunity.slack.com) is quickly becoming a great community to crowd source Ottoneu trade advice and feedback.
How do you get added for the community?
Contact me on Twitter @fazeorange or just post a comment on the Ottoneu Trade Rumors blog requesting an invite, and we’ll get you added. Slack is invite only so an email address is needed. Anyone is welcome.
Why did you cut Rosario at $10? Curious bc I’m faced with the same dilemma.
my bet is that he is terrible behind the dish, and likely cannot play there in another year or two when he competes. He also has 0 value if he moves from coors.
*Deal Harper mid season for young and cheaper major leagues.
*Keep Buxton.
*Deal Sano when he comes back and gets hyped after hitting bombs
*Wait for Gray and possibly Bradley to debut and deal them.
*Deal all of your closers.
You want Warne to trade a Twins prospect?
It’s hard to make any meaningful suggestions without knowing which free agents are available, the makeup of the other teams, and the salaries of players in your league. I’d have to assume the salaries for players in certain tiers would be comparable to the ones in ours (I have Gerrit Cole at $21 and Danny Salazar at $6), but maybe not.
Bryce Harper’s salary is $32 in our league. BTW, I’m not yet convinced that Bryce Harper’s 2-cent head won’t screw up his million dollar potential. He’s a kid so he should outgrow it…but maybe not, said the old person. I spent the same money for Giancarlo Stanton instead.
As others have pointed out, most of these players aren’t MLB ready or will have a big impact immediately….and I’m not seeing a lot of bargaining chips here.
Again, without having the information it’s hard to know if a 2+ year rebuild with prospects is really your best/only option ’cause that’s where it looks like you’re headed.
Were there any cuts made on other teams or existing free agents that might be interesting? Do you need to free up more cash for the draft?
Cutting Oscar Tavares was good move…dead players tend to have very low value in all formats
Don’t usually take the time to say things like this on the internet, because of obvious reasons, but you’re a real piece of shit to say that, in my personal opinion.
Salazar is an interesting piece. At just $10 I’m wondering if his trade value will ever be higher. The fly-ball tendencies and home runs allowed have me slightly concerned. If he moves to the bullpen, his value takes a hit; if he has a strong season, his salary could spike in arbitration, maybe to the point where he’s no longer a no-brainer keeper. I’d keep tight on him for now but continuously evaluate with those ideas in mind, especially if you don’t plan on competing next year.
Too many 5-10 dollar played that should cost 2-6 dollars and too many prospects. You’ve got plenty of money. I’d be targeting slightly overpaid guys that people are trading and pushing non keeper prospects for them.
You’re in the position where you CAN overpay. Which is where people get lost in ottoneu. Just like real baseball, it’s okay to overpay for the right people if you have the money to do it.
Where you absolutely never want to waste dollars in ottoneu is on minor leaguers. They’re currency fodder. The format lends itself to prospects, but they cost more than real life.
People tie up $40-50 of their roster (10% of their budget) to carry guys that won’t play for two years, and likely won’t be fantasy relevant for four to five. Makes no sense.
Ah, basically the only top-level comment that doesn’t actually name a single player on his team. Please, more sage advice on how not to construct a team, which is definitely what the ottoneu-seasoned author was looking for.
I’m in a 5×5 league so obviously a little different, but I had a similarly shaped roster at the end of the season. I also had Doolittle & Perkins for the same prices and was able to move them both to acquire Andrew McCutchen. With the money you have available it is probably in your best interest to add some high priced talent in a similar fashion. As also stated earlier, guys like Bailey, Walker, and even Headley are reasonably priced – if the decision is to not keep them, you can assuredly move them in some capacity.
I think moving some of the prospects, guys like Meyer, Glasnow, Berrios, for high upside major league talent makes a lot of sense. Looks like you would be carrying at least 10 guys who in a likelihood won’t break camp on a major league roster.
Pretty sure the author just traded for more prospects, shipping McCarthy, Melky, and McHough to Brad Johnson for B. Hamilton, R. Tapia, and J. Urias.
The author is going to have a great team in 2017. In 2015… Perhaps not so much.
No real disagreements with the cuts. Closest calls would have been Rosario and Walker for me. Might have considered keeping Rosario to see if he bounces back and could be traded in-season to someone who suffers the inevitable catcher injury. Similarly might have kept Walker. Seems like more than one team in most of my leagues end up desperate for a middle infielder after the draft. Close, close calls, though.
Man, given all the players on this roster that have never seen the majors, and the trade you made with Johnson, I’d say your best move is to just shut it down and pick up another roster in another league.
Man I don’t know about keeping Cole at $19. I’d throw him back and hope for getting him for $10-14 or so.
Nothing seriously wrong here, I would have considered keeping Bailey at $17, I think it’s fair value for him but maybe you can get him back cheaper in the auction. Power and average/obp are going to be a problem for this team, but without knowing what’s going to be available in the auction I would say that maybe you could work out a deal for a power hitting OF using some of that SP depth like Bradley or Gray or both.