Top 5 Prospects for 2015: Pittsburgh Pirates
This 30-part series will look at the projected Top 5 freshman contributors for each big league club for the year ahead. The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation, which is to say some players with lower ceilings may be ranked ahead of others with higher ceilings because they project to have a greater impact in the coming season.
In a Nutshell: The Pirates have pretty solid depth on the field, although the catcher and shortstop positions feature fringe-average starters. The pitching staff has a couple of question marks.
1. Tyler Glasnow, RHP: The Pirates should open 2015 with a solid starting rotation featuring a mix of young power and veteran guile. Glasnow is the future of the Pittsburgh staff, although he spent the 2014 in A-ball. The right-hander struck out 157 batters in just 124.1 innings of work and held his opponents to a .174 batting average. He’ll open 2015 in Double-A and has the talent to reach the Majors in the second half of the year despite his inexperience.
2. Alen Hanson, SS/2B: Hanson has spent much of his time in the minors at the shortstop position but his best position is likely second base. However, his clearest path to a job in Pittsburgh is probably at shortstop where modest Jordy Mercer is the incumbent. The recent acquisition of Sean Rodriguez, a jack of many trades, also muddies the waters for the young prospect. If he gets an opportunity in 2015, Hanson has a chance to provide both gap pop and some speed (15-20 steals with regular playing time).
3. Josh Bell, OF/1B: The outfield depth in the Pirates system has pushed Bell into consideration for the long-term first base gig in Pittsburgh. However, the move across the diamond for Pedro Alvarez puts up a bit of a roadblock for the young player. Bell’s most intriguing asset is his raw power but he has yet to tap into it consistently with just nine home runs in 108 games last season. With that said, he’s not a one-dimensional slugger, though, and can swing the bat (.325 average in 2014). He’ll likely open the 2015 season with a return to Double-A.
4. Nick Kingham, RHP: Kingham’s strikeout rate took a noticeable dive in 2014 but he continued to work around the strike zone and take the ball every fifth day, allowing him to compile close to 160 innings. He split the season between A-ball and Double-A, which gives him a solid shot at opening 2015 in Triple-A. He has the ceiling of a No. 3 or 4 starter.
5. Jameson Taillon, RHP: Taillon has a higher ceiling than Kingham but the 2014 Tommy John surgery has significantly slowed his timetable, meaning his questionable for a big league appearance in 2015. With that said, he was fairly advanced at the time of the injury and could make a surprise appearance in The Show during the latter half of the season — especially if the Pirates are in the playoff hunt.
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
I’m sorry, Marc, but you really know nothing about the Pirates system and/or their ETAs. If it was just this article – and not all the other attempts you’ve unsuccessfully made over the years – I wouldn’t be typing this. Most of this info is just flat-out wrong. There is little chance, based on Pirates historic handling of SPs, that Glasnow sees more than a handful of starts at AAA, let alone the Majors. Jordy Mercer was a 2-win player last year, even considering that he didn’t hit for the first 45 games of the season – at all. His defense improved and his bat returned to the semi-breakout status of 2013. He’s not a fringe-starter; he’s an asset. Josh Bell’s hit-tool is well advanced past his ‘raw power’ and Pedro Alvarez – who is gone after next year, won’t serve as a roadblock, but more of a bridge to Bell.
Placing Alen Hanson – who actually does have a road-block in the form of Neil Walker, particularly if the rumored extension comes to fruition – as the #2 guy to have an impact at the Major League level this year is rather comical. If you polled the Pirates, he wouldn’t make the top 8 in terms of 2015 impact, surely not in front of Kingham or Taillon.
It just reeks of ignorance. And, it’s constant. No wonder they brought Kiley McDaniel on board, jeez.
Agreed. This is so off-base it’s not really worth discussing any further.
Neither of you seem to understand the point of the article. Glasnow is very unlikely to make the show in 2015, sure, but it is possible. And of the possible 2015 Pittsburgh call-ups, he would be the best. That’s the angle this article is taking.
I could quibble with some of the list, but its pretty good. I’m higher than most on Alen Hanson, and it seems Marc is too.
Except that Taillon is much more likely to see time in the majors than Glasnow this year despite how the article is structured.
Except that Taillon is much more likely to see time in the majors than Glasnow this year despite how the article is structured.
You don’t have to be a dick about it.
Okay, a simple “wrong” would’ve done just fine.
Perhaps it’s possible that he just knows more than you about the inner workings of the organization?
So, a little late here, but BP just published their Pirates team preview and they are also very well respected with their fantasy prospect analysis. The exact 5 players listed here were 5 of the 7 listed in BP’s article ($):
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=25240
Instead of just lighting the torch, take a step back and let the man do his job.
The major difference is order and context, not names. I don’t think the names listed are too big of an argument. Most of these guys show up on collective Pirates top 10 lists and the other ones in the mix on those lists are in low-A ball.
But on BP, for example, Kingham is listed first and he’s the big discrepency between the two articles and fan outcry. They note he has a shot to make the rotation out of spring (highly optimistic; Pirates loathe waiving guys out of options and Locke/Worley are exactly that). He’s not listed fourth. He’s a guy with some projection and AAA seasoning. This front office has been painfully patient with young arms. Yet, out of every person on this list, Kingham’s gotta be the most likely to see MLB time the first half of the year. Easy.
And that doesn’t mean BP is flawless either.
BP lists Mercer as a threat to get supplanted by Hansen, as does FG. With the Kang signing, there’s a different context here, but Mercer was a two-win player last year even after an awful start and Hansen had a REALLY down year, especially in the organization’s eyes. That doesn’t make Mercer untouchable, but he’s not looked at as a glaring hole in this lineup that a guy with major questions who’s never gone more than a half-season at AA is going to upgrade on a playoff team. Perhaps that’s an indictment of BP’s author, Cromer, as well. But that’s not as big of a focus when his piece covers more prospects and the whole MLB roster as well.
But, also consider, Cromer’s skeptical in the comments that the Pirates even sign Kang after posting and that $5-6 million a season, at this point, is a little rich for the Pirates. After the way this offseaon’s gone? Really?
It actually seems like you don’t understand the point of the article: He’s talking about impact in 2015. There is ZERO chance that Glasnow makes the Majors in 2015, thereby making it necessarily impossible that he should be on this list. Regardless of whether you’re higher than most on Hanson (of whom I like as well), there is also zero chance that he makes the Majors this year and therefore he shouldn’t be on the list as well. Bell, same thing, but maybe higher than the other two. Marc has Taillon at 5th….and he’s CLEARLY the leader in potential impact on 2015 for the Pirates. Clearly.
In other words, I could make an argument – better than Marc’s – that his list is completely backwards. And, even then, it’s wrong, because having Glasnow on a 2015-impact list is laughable.
Kingham and Taillon are def the most likely to impact 2015. There’s no way Taillon’s fallen that far. Just odd. I’m not sure if Mark caught that Hanson spent much of last year getting benched by the organization. Doesn’t seem like the Pirates are his forte.
@IsIt2015Yet?, I’m not sure you caught the fact that the Pirates fired the minor league coach who clashed with and benched Alen Hanson. Look it up. I’ll admit the kid has had attitude problems, but he’s in the organization’s future plans.
@CabreraDeath, Again I think you’re looking at it backwards. He is not ranking likely impact in 2015. He’s basically throwing out the concept of who’s likely to get called up. He’s doing a catch-all “who could possibly be called up” and then ranking them solely by ceiling. Its a weird way to approach this sort of article, but that’s how I read it. And I think the list makes decent sense if read that way. Also, Taillon needs an elbow to pitch in 2015. You always hear about the guys who bounce back from TJS, and you never hear about the many who don’t. And even if he heals on schedule, it takes months more to regain polish and command. The Pirates would really be rushing Taillon back if he pitches in the majors at all in 2015.
@CabreraDeath, I just read the header at the top of the article and I guess I’m wrong about the angle the article takes. He is counting readiness, but it seems Marc is weighting ceiling much more than readiness. Anyway, I still think Glasnow ahead of Taillon makes sense here. Taillon will not be ready in 2015, there’s really no chance. Glasnow does seem rather unlikely, but more likely than Taillon. Elbows need working tendons to pitch.
@name
we do not hear about the Tj failures as much since there simply are not as many anymore. The success rate is now about 85% fully recover and are back on the mound. there are rare exceptions, but all it does now is add in the 15% risk of not recovering.
I heard a discussion that said that the failure rate of TJ had trended up recently. Just as important is noting that the 85 percent success rate is for appearing in the majors. If Taillon is a reliever for a week in September, he will be a “success.” Many pitchers are not as effective or their “comeback” is short lived.
Mercer is not fringe-average, he is a good defensive guy with an average bat for his position. He is fringe-above-average.
Caught a typo for you, Marc.
It should say “The Pirates have pretty solid depth on the field, although the catcher and first-base positions feature fringe-average starters. The pitching staff has a couple of question marks.” You’re welcome.
Pedro Alvarez is about the definition of a fringe-average first baseman, and he is the biggest question mark on that roster.
Is this list in reverse order? Does Marc mean that Taillon is supposed to be the most impactful for 2015? I hope so, because that is the only way this list makes any sense. I realize that Marc has to keep tabs on all 30 teams and us as fans really only keep track of who we root for generally, but if he thinks that Kingham will have the most impact for the Buccos this year out of all of their prospects I have to call into question the rankings that he has done/will do for every other team in the league.
If you mean to say “but if he thinks that Kingham will have the most impact ” then I agree 100% with what you said. But if you truly meant Kingham, and not Glasnow, you are wrong. Kingham might be the only guy on this list to play in the majors this year, depending on Taillon’s recovery from TJ.
You are right, I meant:
“if he thinks that Glasnow will have the most impact for the Buccos this year out of all of their prospects I have to call into question the rankings that he has done/will do for every other team in the league.”
I always mix those two up in my head.
top 5!?! Holy cow, why so much effort? Why not cut it down to the top 3 prospects… no, that’s crazy. the *one* top prospect. Yes. Write a whole series on each team’s #1 top dog prospect!
Mildly surprised that Elias Diaz didn’t make the list
“He split the season between A-ball and Double-A, which gives him a solid shot at opening 2015 in Triple-A.”
Huh?
Yeah, not to pile on, but Kingham split the season at AA and AAA, he is the most likely guy on this list to have a 2015 fantasy impact and it would probably only be in deep leagues. Then you would have Taillon, who had his surgery in early April last year, and Hanson. Diaz probably should be on here due to MLB need and starting at AAA.
Maybe calling it “Top 5 prospects that have a non zero chance of being called up, and the impact I feel they would have up were they indeed called up” would clear up all the dissension?
That would still be wrong, because Hanson and Bell have zero chance of being called up this year, and Glasnow probably does too.
Hanson will start the year in AAA, so he has a decent chance of being called up if he performs well and someone gets hurt in Pittsburgh.
The Pirates have a deep system but no one knocking on the door for next year. Who is more likely to be called up?
If a writer leads off an article with “The rankings take into consideration a mixture of ceiling, readiness and potential playing time allocation,” he should try to remember that when writing the rest of the article.
Marc Hulet writes a factually incorrect article? Who woulda thought that? Anybody who has ever read Hulet’s stuff in the past, that’s who. Among all internet prospect-niks he ranks at the very bottom for me. His best stuff is when he parrots other guys work (which he does often). He should stick to that.