Corey Dickerson Breaks Out

I told you Corey Dickerson was going to go 25/10 this season and while he missed those milestones by one homer and two steals, you should have listened to my prognostication! Of course, I failed to do so myself, as I drafted Dickerson in a total of zero leagues. That proved to be a mistake, as Dickerson completed a breakout year that resulted in fantasy earnings ranking him 15th among outfielders and 37th overall. That’s pretty crazy for someone ranked as our 77th best outfielder in our preseason consensus.

Of course, his strong offensive showing should not have been a huge surprise. Dickerson clobbered the baseball at every minor league stop. Excluding a short stint at Rookie ball in 2012, he posted an ISO no lower than .229 in the minors and wOBA marks above .400 four times. He typically combined better than average strikeout rates with massively inflated BABIP marks to go along with that big power. A relatively low walk rate looked like the only real wart. He also brought a bit of speed to the table, even if he didn’t exactly steal bases at an efficient rate. But he hit a whopping 19 triples in 2013 between Triple-A and the Majors!

Heading into the 2014 season, the question became exactly what kind of playing time he would receive. The Rockies featured a glut of outfielders and since Dickerson bats from the left-hand side of the plate, the team would also probably be tempted to platoon him. So at best, we were probably looking at a guy who would only face right-handers.

But Dickerson owners ended up facing the worst case scenario when the season opened, as Charlie Blackmon earned the majority of the center field starts, while Carlos Gonzalez and Michael Cuddyer flanked him in left and right field, respectively. Dickerson made the start in the fourth game of the season and then didn’t start again until the 17th. Luckily for Dickerson, though, Gonzalez and Cuddyer are both injury prone and it didn’t take long for Dickerson to get his chance.

But even with the opportunity to start now, he still sat against southpaws in favor of Drew Stubbs, who mashed lefties to the tune of a .409 wOBA. Dickerson only faced lefties 98 times and while he was far better against righties, his .321 wOBA was actually better than the league average. He had no trouble against lefties in the minors, posting a nearly identical OPS against pitchers of both hands. So he should be given the chance to play every day, including lefties. But Stubbs is still around, so it may not happen. Cuddyer leaving helps though as now Stubbs could instead form a strict platoon with Blackmon.

At first glance, it might appear that Dickerson was a bit lucky, benefiting from an inflated .356 BABIP. But, he ranked eighth among batters with at least 450 plate appearances in line drive rate, hit a below average rate of infield flies, plays half his games in BABIP-inflating Coors Field, and showed excellent BABIP skill in the minors. All of these facts validate his BABIP. Steamer is projecting a .324 mark next year and I’m absolutely betting on the over.

His 19.5% HR/FB rate was supported by a 298 foot batted ball distance that ranked 20th in baseball. Given his monstrous minor league power, this doesn’t appear to be a fluke. He possesses serious pop. While the playing time obviously will remain a bit of a concern, the only other issue is that of his stolen base prowess. He wasn’t particularly good in the minors and is now just 10-for-19 in the Majors. If he doesn’t improve fast, Walt Weiss may very well just tell him to stop running. Since he only swiped eight bases, it wouldn’t represent a big hit to his potential fantasy value, but does lower his ultimate upside if 10-15 steals had been a possibility.

Nothing in Dickerson’s performance stands out as unsustainable. While we can’t be sure if he’ll receive 500 or as many as 650 plate appearances next year, he shouldn’t regress too much on a rate basis. I therefore expect him not to be overvalued in fantasy drafts next year.