Choose Your Starters Wisely: Updating Head Canons

We’re nearly a third of the way through the season and the fantasy landscape is littered with piles of pitching calamities. With waiver wires already increasingly dry with decent talent, those looking for relief from a stream might more and more have to rely on playing the man, more so the cards when trying to find viable matchups, Adjusting our slider on quality of pitchers in order to pounce on the worst teams, whether overall or against a particular hand.

Let’s update our general feels on a few different offenses, whether obvious *cough – Oakland – cough-COUGH* or sneaky bad because their overall numbers are masking weakness against one hand or the other. We’ll begin by peaking in on how team offenses have performed by glancing at the Wins leaderboard, looking also at each team’s Pythagorean Wins, total runs scored, and total runs allowed:

But not all runs are created the same and not all offenses are balanced in the way they’ve handled each hand of pitchers. Ordered by total runs scored, here is how everyone currently ranks according to pitcher handedness in wOBA, xwOBA, K%, and BB%:

Whether looking for streams on the wire or making borderline decisions from your own roster, the above can at least give us some guideposts on which teams to attack, and with whom, as well as which teams should be avoided depending on who you’re trying to throw.

Clearly, the only way to accomplish this is with all of the totally normal tiers that you’re used to.

Tier: Devoid of All Hope

Oakland Athletics, 28th in Total Runs, 29th in wOBA, 30th in xwOBA, 26th in K%

Woo-ooooof. We already know what going on in Oakland and if you don’t a quick glance at their 10 wins tells a pretty quick story.

But for an expanded tale:

That’s a mostly black hole and not only are things unlikely to get better, they’ll actually likely get even worse as Oakland trades anyone with value the closer we get to the deadline. But we shouldn’t end on a bad note so I suppose we can give them props for having such a stingy strikeout rate vs LHP (10th) and Brent Rooker has just been punishing lefties, whether via power or just getting on base. And do be careful if your chosen pitcher’s battery mate has trouble throwing out thieves because Esteury Ruiz will be a problem.

But besides staying a little more selective with the quality of LHP you’re willing to use, Oakland is, was, and will continue to be the top target for pitching matchups in 2023.

Next 10 Days:

Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez (L), Cristian Javier, Bryce Elder, Dylan Dodd (L), Jared Shuster (L), Edward Cabrera, Eury Pérez, Sandy Alcantara

Tier: Don’t Be Fooled by Their Record, the Tigers are Oakland-Lite

Detroit Tigers, 29th in Total Runs, 27th in wOBA

While I have it on good authority that the Tigers are good (or, at least, less awful), currently just three games below .500 and two games back from the AL Central lead. Unfortunately, Win-Loss record isn’t always the best way to judge team quality and Detroit’s run-scoring doesn’t exactly inspire confidence. If using their Pythagorean Win% instead, Detroit is pacing as a 63 Win team.

Looking at a lineup full of holes, it’s easy to see how we got here:

I suppose the above could instead serve as a Zach McKinstry hype package but all I see is a sea of red that be attacked by most pitchers with a pulse. And against LHP, things are particularly dire; looking at players who have at least 20 PA vs LHP, only three players have better than a .340 wOBA, with three also carrying >30% K%.

I’m really not trying to pile on – I’m sure they’re all fine human beings in their own right – but on any given night, their lineup will include a variety of hitters that are of less than big-league quality. It’s only May but we already know this right?

Second in the division be damned; unless you think your leftie will get taken deep by Jake Rogers, just about any starter could be used against them.

Next 10 Days:

Lance Lynn, Jesse Schlotens, Dylan Cease, Nathan Eovaldi, Martín Pérez (L), Jon Gray, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, Lucas Giolito

Tier: Whiffyrric Victories

Cleveland Guardians, 30th in Total Runs, 30th in wOBA, 27th in xwOBA, 2nd in K%

Like the Tigers, Cleveland is one of the worst-scoring offenses but unlike Detroit, their stinginess with strikeouts makes them less of an auto-stream against. Just like last year when they finished with an 18% K% and 10% SwStr% that were both the lowest in baseball.

The lack of whiffs aren’t concentrated either, with most of their lineup getting spread out with the low-K love:

Take out the cartoonish rates of Mike Zunino and Gabriel Arias (and Amed Rosario vs RHP) and you’re left with a majority of guys living in the mid-to low-teens of K% and that makes streaming with questionable options to be a dicier proposition from the standpoint of the total value you’re hoping to extract with a sneaky stream.

That’s not to say you should be overweighting strikeout potential when deciding on matchups because, at this time of year, I’d rather focus on attacking offenses that simply can’t score. But just manage your expectations – of the 48 starts made against Cleveland this season, 34 pitchers have finished with 5 K or fewer.

Starters Next 10 Days:

Matthew Liberatore, Jack Flaherty, Jordan Montgomery (L), Adam Wainwright, Steven Matz (L), Tyler Wells, Kyle Gibson, Grayson Rodriguez, Bailey Ober, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan

Tier: Mirage in Miami

Miami Marlins, 27th in Total Runs, 22nd in wOBA, 25th in xwOBA

They’re bad, right? Or, are they only good vs LHP? Or will they be proven to be equally bad vs either hand of pitchers after their xwOBA catches up to their wOBA vs LHP after they reach a more representative sample (currently 3rd-fewest)?

Well, I think we can at least agree that Jorge Soler can make lefties who mess around, find out:

Even in the small sample vs LHP as a team, the two biggest lefty-smashers are doing similar things to what they’ve done before. In the three seasons entering 2023, Soler ran a .351 wOBA and .372 xwOBA vs LHP (.309 wOBA/.348 xwOBA vs RHP), while Garrett Cooper slashed .291/.349/.500 vs LHP, compared to .264/.353/.423 vs RHP.

I know it’s muscle memory to usually stream against the Marlins but for the time being, I’ll be using a more discerning eye for matchups against left-handers.

Next 10 Days:

Reid Detmers (L), Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Sandoval (L), Ryan Weathers (L), Blake Snell (L), Joe Musgrove, James Kaprielian, Luis Medina, Paul Blackburn

Tier: Brand Names, Generic Value

Philadelphia Phillies, T-18th in Total Runs, 26th in xwOBA, 22nd in K%, 26th in BB%

The Phillies have been lingering around the bottom third of scoring but are the reverse when ranked by wOBA (12th), however, there is a big gap between their rank vs RHP (8th) and vs LHP (23rd). And going by xwOBA, things tank in a hurry, whether vs RHP (24th), vs LHP (26th), or vs both (26th). Not to mention 22nd in K% and 26th in BB%.

There is plenty of blame to go around:

What in the name of (insert name of the “good” cheesesteak place) is going jawn, here? Bryce Harper has gotten steamrolled by lefties, J. T. Realmuto has barely outearned Yan Gomes, and Trea Turner has returned less fantasy value than Leody Taveras and Nick Senzel.

Harper’s numbers vs LHP have dropped over the past few years but given the track record, I’m sure things will be just fine. Especially considering he’s outright murdering right-handers right now, running a .534 wOBA, .490 xwOBA, 17% K%, and 19% BB% since returning. And while Realmuto has damn near been a liability vs LHP in 2023, slashing .218/.246/.364, with a .263 wOBA and 61 wRC+, from 2020-2022 (373 PA), he slashed .270/.365/.447, with a .353 wOBA and 123 wRC+. Things will look up.

I’ve never much understood the appeal of Brandon Marsh and after a hot few weeks to start the season, his turn back into a pumpkinness is racing up the charts. Since hitting his last home run on April 23, Marsh is slashing .181/.314/.208, with a 30% K%, .246 wOBA, and 49 wRC+. But outside of him, there are plenty of reasons to think Philadelphia’s left-handed blues will start to subside as Realmuto and Harper come back closer to their career marks and the alien inhabiting Trea Turner decides to go back home. They might have some questionable lefties coming up on the schedule but I’m probably not trying to get too cute.

Next 10 Days:

Marcus Stroman, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele (L), Tommy Henry (L), Ryne Nelson, Zac Gallen, Charlie Morton, Jared Shuster (L), Spencer Strider, Dylan Dodd (L)

Tier: West Coast-adelphia

San Francisco Giants, 18th in Total Runs, 13th in wOBA (8th vs RHP, 28th vs LHP)

Like the Phillies, the Giants have been mediocre scoring runs but have had far better results vs RHP, than vs LHP. But unlike the Phillies, the Giants aren’t very judicious in who they’re willing to strike out against; lefty or righty, they’ll be willing to whiff.

While the overall numbers are poor and strikeouts are certainly always on the table, we probably don’t want to get very cute vs RHP, as the Giants still have plenty of power that can hurt you and currently with the sixth-most HR overall. But as far as matchups with lefthanders go? Well, if one of your biggest “lefty mashers” is a part-time Wilmer Flores, things are probably not ideal. Or maybe it’s the exact reverse of that and they are an absolute must to stream LHP against.

Unfortunately, we won’t get many chances in the near future to test our theory, as the Giants are only scheduled to face one over the next 10 days. Fortunately, it’s old man, Rich Hill, who is only rostered 16% on Yahoo and should definitely be a viable stream.

Next 10 Days:

Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, Colin Rea, Rich Hill (L), Johan Oviedo, Mitch Keller, Dean Kremer, Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Tier: The Lane Thomas All-Stars

Washington Nationals, 23rd in Total Runs, 18th in wOBA, 22nd in xwOBA

Before getting to Thomas, we should first take note of the extremes in Washinton’s plate discipline. They rarely walk (27th in BB%), especially vs RHP (28th), and do not, I repeat, do not, strikeout. The Nationals are 1st in K% overall, 2nd vs LHP, and 4th vs RHP. So if you’re expecting a rain of K’s, expect to be disappointed. Only 15 starters have left a matchup with them with more than 5 K.

Now, back to Thomas. Much like the opposite of either ‘adelphias, Washington appears to be a much better offense vs LHP (6th in wOBA), than vs RHP (25th in wOBA).

But really, it’s just Lane Thomas:

All due respect to a hurt Victor Robles and the small samples of success from Riley Adams and Ildemaro Vargas, a large chunk of Washington’s superior numbers vs LHP are purely Lane-train driven.

Washington vs LHP

Lane Thomas vs LHP: 4 HR, .362/.439/.621, .453 wOBA, .387 xwOBA

Rest of Team vs LHP: 7 HR, .290/.348/.411, .333 wOBA, .320 xwOBA

I might be a known Thomas doubter but even I can’t deny that he’s a short-sided MVP. And with a likely dry well of strikeouts in any given matchup and the rest of the non-Thomas’s also handling their own against the wrong-handers, I’ll take a hard look before trying to run a lefty stream against them.

Next 10 Days

Jordan Lyles, Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch (L), Bobby Miller, Tony Gonsolin, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, Dylan Covey, Ranger Suárez (L)





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Brad Wesley
10 months ago

This is awesome analysis and in no ways a light lift. Really appreciate it!

dezremember
10 months ago
Reply to  Brad Wesley

Yeah this is doooope. Thanks, Nick!