Chicago White Sox Top 10 Prospects Updated

The Top 10 list for the Sox is top heavy with some studs but the system lacks depth, overall. Still, I’m a big fan of both Jimenez and Cease.

Click here for the pre-season Top 10

1. Eloy Jimenez | OF | AAA —> In the past, the Sox system was populated by a large group of grip-and-rip hitters with extremely poor plate discipline. Jimenez, although aggressive at the plate, makes a lot of contact — especially for a monster with plus power. Just 21, he hits the ball really hard and generates a lot of line drives, which suggests to me that his higher BABIP might be a little more sustainable than most. He should be ready to settle into a big league role at the beginning of 2019 as a strong-armed right-fielder with the ability to slug 30+ homers.

2. Dylan Cease | RHP | AAA —> Part of the return for Jose Quintana last year, the Cubs probably already regret this deal and Cease hasn’t even reached the Majors. The young right-hander has gotten stronger as the year has progressed and improved even more with a promotion from double-A to triple-A. He, like Jimenez, is ready to contribute at the big league level. Overall, he’s used his two plus offerings — fastball and curve — to strike out 140 batters in 112.1 innings. There are some injury concerns with Cease, who has a decent pitcher’s frame, but isn’t the tallest guy, and had Tommy John surgery in his past. There is frontline starter potential here, especially if the third offering continues to improve.

3. Michael Kopech | RHP | AAA —> Flame thrower. That’s Kopech in a nutshell. He can hit triple-digits and sits in the upper-90s. He has a wipeout slider. And a developing changeup. And he struggles with his control enough to make hitters uncomfortable in the batter’s box (but also leads to too many walks). So far at the upper level in the minors he’s struck out 152 batters in 113.1 innings but also issued 60 free passes. He has a big, strong frame and could develop into an innings eater if he can keep the pitch counts down. There are some makeup/maturity concerns from past incidents.

4. Nick Madrigal | 2B | A —> Madrigal gets a lot of love for being the best pure hitter to come out of the college ranks for quite some time. And it’s warranted… He just might reach the Majors in 2019 after being selected in the first round of the ’18 draft. I have some reservations, though. He may have .300+ but he does so with an approach that generates very little power so he’s essentially a singles hitter right now. He makes plus-plus contact and has just one strikeout through his first 22 pro games — but he’s also walked just three times… again placing a lot of pressure on that hit tool that generates singles. With that said, he could still be improving his strength in his wrist, which he broke earlier in the year. If he comes out in 2019 and shows more line drives and improved pop, then he moves up this list.

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5. Luis Robert | OF | A+ —> Robert is another player that could zoom up this list in 2019. He’s produced outstanding offensive numbers since turning pro, but he’s also done it against inferior competition and he’s struggled to be healthy. His numbers are also inflated by an otherworldly BABIP which is well above .400 and very unsustainable even with his powerful swing that generates immense line-drive numbers. The strikeout rates are somewhat worrisome but he could offset that concern with hitting more home runs (He has plus raw power) but he currently hits too many balls on the ground. The 2019 season will be huge for Robert, who needs to stay healthy and have a good 400-500 at-bats.

6. Dane Dunning | RHP | AA —> Dunning gets overlooked because he’s not a flame-thrower but he has a firm fastball that can hit the mid-90s and two other pitches that project as above-average. Add in plus control and the ability to avoid the long-ball due to high ground-ball rates, and you have a potential mid-rotation starter with the strong frame to be an innings-eater. He’s currently on the DL after injuring his elbow so hopefully he can avoid Tommy John surgery and losing valuable development time.

7. Alec Hansen | RHP | AA —> The big man looked to be on the cusp of a big league arrival in 2018 but then injuries and command/control issues blew up. In nine, starts he’s posted a 6.56 ERA and issued 42 walks in 35.2 innings. The step back may push Hansen to the bullpen where he could develop into an absolute beast if he can throw enough strikes to be a high-leverage reliever. He can threaten triple-digits with his heater and both his breaking balls have the potential to be plus pitches.

8. Zach Collins | C | AA —> Collins continues to have major contact issues (134 Ks in 358 ABs) but the bar for an acceptable catcher’s offence is pretty low. And he does a nice job of offsetting the low batting average that comes with the strikeouts by getting on base via the walk (91). He also has good raw power and, when he makes contact, the ball goes a long way. Defensively, he projects as average — at best.

9. Luis Alexander Basabe | OF | AA —> The results have been inconsistent to date and we’re still waiting for the light bulb to fully click on but Basabe has a lot of tools and reached double-A in 2018. He has raw power that he has yet to fully tap into and excellent speed that he has yet to fully utilize due to modest instincts. There is a lot of swing and miss to his game but shows a patient approach and has 56 walks in 99 games. Defensively, he has a very strong arm and is well suited to playing any position in the outfield.

10. Blake Rutherford | OF | A+ —> As a former first round selection of the Yankees, Rutherford was probably a little overhyped but some of that shine has come off since moving to the Sox system. He has a chance to be a solid hitter but all his other tools pretty much grade out as average. He’s a good base runner but his aggressive nature at the plate leads to low walk totals (and related low on-base average). I see second-division starter.

Just Missed:

Ian Hamilton | RHP | AAA —> Hamilton isn’t a huge guy but he can dial his heater up to the upper 90s. He pairs it with a potentially-plus slider and could eventually develop into a high-leverage reliever at the big league level.

Steele Walker | OF | R —> Walker has a solid track record of hitting as an amateur. And his ability to generate line drives belies his size. It remains to be seen how much over-the-fence pop he’ll generate so he’ll need to continue to keep the strikeouts in check, focus on getting on base and just peppering line drives all over the field to be successful.

Kodi Medeiros | LHP | AA —> Once teams realize Medeiros is better suited to the bullpen I feel like he’ll take off and be a solid big-league contributor. His concentration appears to slip over the course of a game and his inconsistency could be mitigated with shorter outings. He’s a lefty with a firm fastball and a potentially-plus slider.





Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.

20 Comments
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mikecws91
8 years ago

Cease is in AA.
Madrigal is in A+.
Hansen has been demoted to A+.
Walker is in A.

Rational FanMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  mikecws91

Yeah this piece was kind of half assed.

Also, basebe had a really good year going at A+ – it did seem to click – but he has struggled a bit as a very young AA player but has improved of late.

Dont think anyone would take Hamilton over Burdi and dont see Medeiros in the top 20 of this system with guys like Gonzalez having big years, and no way hes ahead of someone like Stephens.

pedeysRSox
8 years ago
Reply to  Rational Fan

Unfortunately, everyone thinks Stephens is more of a 5 starter. 40 fv by FanGraphs, 45 fv from mlb.com

Rational FanMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  pedeysRSox

I agree with them.

sgp2204
8 years ago
Reply to  mikecws91

Also not really sure I’d say this system is “lacking depth” anymore. The top 30 looks pretty damn strong to me.

Anthony Princeton
8 years ago

The notion that the White Sox lack minor league depth is absurd. Not mentioned in this piece is Micker Adolfo (OF) and Jake Burger (3B) currently injured. Zack Burdi (RP) and Tyler Johnson (RP) along with Ian Hamilton could be closing games and/or pitching in high leverage situations at the major league level by the end of 2019.
Then there are 2017 draft picks, Gavin Sheets (1B) .354 wOBA 117wRC+, Luis Gonzalez (OF) .390 wOBA 141 wRC+ and Laz Rivera (SS) .377 wOBA 132 wRC+ on the loaded Winston Salem team. Seby Zavala (C), an offensive minded catcher not far behind Collins. There are also several other pitching prospects that should make an impact at the MLB level either at the back of a rotation or in the pen either by the end of this season or early 2019.

slamcactusMember since 2020
8 years ago

It’s probably worth pointing out that Kopech’s only issued 4 walks (against 50 strikeouts) in his last 6 starts. BB-rates tend to stabilize quickly, so there’s strong evidence he may have turned a corner with his control.

I like Cease too, but Kopech’s upside is so much higher that it’s hard for me to understand flipping their ranking. Kopech is a high-variance prospect but it’s not like Cease is some sort of super-safe arm. There’s still relief risk there,, and while he’s improved his fastball command the main blog prospect folks still put a 40 on his control only 2 weeks ago. He’s also 4 months older than Kopech, pitching a level down, and walking a solid but not ideal 3.5/9.

When speculating on fantasy prospects I’ll take one of the 3 or 4 guys in the minors mentioned as having ace upside every time over the guy with #3 upside/late-inning reliever floor, especially when the potential ace is younger and pitching at a higher level.

MRDXolMember since 2021
8 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

I think it’s a little unfair to describe Cease as “#3 starter upside” and Kopech as “potential ace” when they have quite similar profiles. High school draftees, right-handers, with plus-plus fastballs, at least plus breaking balls, work-in-progress changeups, with somewhat questionable control/command, high strikeout rates, and some past injury concerns who have seemed to turn a corner since being traded to the White Sox in blockbuster deals for major-league ace lefties.

I don’t disagree that Kopech is currently the better prospect– he’s slightly younger and performing at a level above– but it’s not like Cease doesn’t also have ace potential. Their numbers at AA (Cease this year, Kopech last year) are pretty similar, with Cease even walking a few less. The fact that Kopech is a level ahead can be explained by Cease’s pro career beginning with TJS and the Cubs bringing him back slowly rather than performance. Also, given how many chances the White Sox gave Fulmer (and Danish and probably Covey) to be a starter before sending him to the bullpen, I think it’s fair to say that they see every pitching prospect currently starting as a future starter until proven twice over otherwise.

mbs2001
8 years ago
Reply to  MRDXol

Cease’s fastball regularly hits 100 mph. Combine that with a plus breaking ball and average command you have ace upside not #3 starter…

sgp2204
8 years ago
Reply to  MRDXol

Agreed. I’m not sure where that “#3 upside” comment comes from. I do agree with the OP in saying that Kopech should be ranked ahead of him, but saying that about Cease’s upside seems pretty ridiculous to me.

mbs2001
8 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

Cease is at worst a top 50 prospect and I’d imagine this article was written right before Kopech took off.

Cease is right behind Kopech as he’s been one of the best pitchers in minor league baseball this year. He hits 100 and has better command than Kopech, the 40 that you mentioned is too low given how he’s looked in 2018.

dcweber99
8 years ago

If I were writing a bad movie or TV show about football, Steele Walker is almost certainly what I would have named my QB

rhdx
8 years ago

Still disappointed they went all pitcher in the Eaton trade (and all of those pitchers look horrible now). At the time, Giolito, Lopez, and Dunning were the no. 2, 3, and 7 prospects in the Nats system. They couldn’t have taken just Robles? They certainly could have taken Soto (no. 4) and some lottery tickets. The Cubs and Astros went heavy on hitters in their rebuild and signed/traded for pitching. I think the Sox went way too heavy on pitching in this rebuild and it isn’t clear any of the pitchers will be any good.

Second_city
8 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

Hindsight is 20/20, and the Sox develop pitchers, but can’t seem to do the same for hitting. Hopefully they end up trading for some offense and developing their own pitchers.

rhdx
8 years ago
Reply to  Second_city

Certainly. But I hated the trade the minute they did it. What pitchers have they developed in the last 5 years? Not one consistently good pitcher. They had a history, but not sure they still do.

slamcactusMember since 2020
8 years ago
Reply to  rhdx

“They couldn’t have taken just Robles?”

Almost certainly not.

rhdx
8 years ago
Reply to  slamcactus

They traded for the Nats 2, 3, and 7 prospects. It is quite reasonable they could have just taken the no. 1 guy and nothing else instead of that. And they clearly could have taken Soto.

garrettfunkel
8 years ago

I’m a little baffled by Madrigal being so highly ranked here and everywhere. Not saying it’s wrong but I don’t get it. Is he expected to develop some power as he matures? There aren’t a whole lot of players around who slug .350 whose teams are happy to give em 600 ABs. A guy at 5’7” 165 isn’t the least bit projectable. You could get lost on the list of WAR leaders before you find a player with a similar profile unless you’re really dreaming on him becoming Altuve which… doesn’t happen too often.

sgp2204
8 years ago
Reply to  garrettfunkel

You don’t really have to look that far down the WAR list. Even if you want to ignore Altuve, you can find Albies, who had absolutely no power until this year, at #28. I’d argue that’s the best comp for Madrigal.

Albies (5’9″ / 160)
Hit: 45/70
GamePower: 20/30
RawPower: 40/40
Speed: 70/70
Field: 50/60
Throws: 55/55
FV: 60

Madrigal (5’7″ / 165)
Hit: 40/70
GamePower: 30/50
RawPower: 40/45
Speed: 70/70
Field: 55/60
Throws: 50/50
FV: 55

mbs2001
8 years ago
Reply to  garrettfunkel

It’s much easier to make adjustments and tweaks to a players swing when they have a preternatural ability to hit a baseball.

Jose Ramirez, Mookie Betts, and Ozzie Albies are examples of smaller players who hit home runs. These players are all 1-2 inches taller than Madrigal which really shouldn’t matter.