Checking In On Three AL SP TJ Surgery Returnees

Ignoring those who reinjured themselves or were moved to the bullpen, all of the American League starting pitchers who underwent Tommy John surgery last season have now returned. Typically, I ignore these pitchers in fantasy leagues during their first year back and then analyze their results and velocity when forecasting their performance the following season. But a blanket ignore on every TJ surgery returnee might not be prudent, as evidenced by the superhuman Jose Fernandez, whose performance suggests that he hasn’t skipped a beat. So let’s take a look at our three.

Matt Moore

Moore underwent his surgery in late April of last year and made his Rays debut on July 2nd, giving him a little over 14 months of recovery time, which is relatively normal nowadays for this procedure. The worry with Moore was that since his control was poor before the surgery and that’s typically the last thing to return when coming back from it, we could end up witnessing a disaster as he tries to regain his form. So far, he has indeed been a disaster, but it’s not because of a severe lack of control. His overall strike percentage is actually up marginally from 2013 and walk rate slightly better. He has even pumped in first pitch strikes at a career high rate.

Sometimes a pitcher’s fastball velocity takes a while to return or it never comes back at all. In some instances, of course, the velocity actually jumps due to the exhaustive rehab. Moore’s velocity is more of less the same as it was last season, but that’s not exactly great news, because that velocity was down nearly a mile per hour from the previous season. Before his injury-shortened 2014, Moore featured a swing and miss changeup and a respectable slider. The good news is that his change has been fantastic, inducing a SwStk% of 20.3%. Unfortunately, his slider has been missing as a weapon, as its SwStk% is a pitiful 6.8%, a little more than half the rate of his career mark. Since the slider puts so much stress on the elbow, one wonders if he’s trying to take it easy on the elbow or if he physically isn’t able to throw it like he used to.

At this point, he’s truly a wait and see. I wouldn’t touch him in any leagues, even AL-Only formats. As a fly ball pitcher with poor control and now lacking even the ability to strike batters out, the potential ratio damage he could inflict is just too great to risk activating him.

Ivan Nova

Nova had his surgery a week after Moore and made his Yankees debut about a week and a half earlier. Although his shiny 3.38 ERA deceives one into thinking that Nova has recovered well from his surgery, a deeper look suggests that this hasn’t actually been the case. His strike percentage is at a career low and his F-Strike% sits below 50% (versus a 61.1% MLB average). In spite of such issues throwing strikes, somehow, some way, Nova has managed to keep his walk rate at a mark only marginally higher than the league average. That can’t last, unless he starts throwing more strikes of course.

There is some good news though. His velocity has rebounded after last year’s decline and now sits right where it did pre-TJ surgery. But even with the return of his fastball, his SwStk% is still down from his peak 2012-2013 levels. Much of that could be blamed on his four-seamer, which has generated an impossibly low 1.5% SwStk%. Perhaps recognizing its ineffectiveness, he has thrown more two-seamers instead. His curve ball has been fine, but his seldom used changeup has been nearly as terrible as his four-seamer. He’s still getting ground balls though, which is a good sign.

It’s clear that Nova remains in “getting back into the rhythm” mode, but his prospects look much more promising than Moore’s. I still wouldn’t trust him for a while though and the poor Yankees defense isn’t going to help matters.

Martin Perez

Ooof. And I thought I was smart for plucking Perez off the barren AL Tout Wars free agent pool a couple of weeks before his season debut. He has remained on my bench, but those darn two-start weeks always draw you in as an automatic start, so naturally I was thanked with a delightful eight runs in just one inning performance on Monday. Of the TJ returnees, Perez was certainly the one whose return owners were least excited about. But I was intrigued by his ground ball profile and excellent changeup.

So far, strike throwing hasn’t been a problem, as his strike percentage sits at a career high over this tiny sample size. Oddly, his walk rate is up, but that’s likely more a function of the 12.0 innings it’s over than anything else. Just one less walk and suddenly his walk rate would be the second lowest of his career. Other points of good news include his fastball velocity having returned to prior levels and his ground ball rate sits above 50%.

The problem has been the measly five strikeouts over those 12.0 innings. His SwStk% is just 5.8% and none of the five pitches he has thrown have generated a SwStk% above 10%. His changeup is close, but not quite there. He looks to be in a similar state as Nova as clearly a work in progress. But just like I would take Nova over Moore, I would take Perez too. But depending on how he performs in his next start, this may be the last time he sees my active roster for a while!