The Daily Grind: Trades, Carrasco, Alvarez

Agenda

  1. More Trade Talk
  2. Daily DFS – Carrasco, Holmberg
  3. GB / FB Splits
  4. Tomorrow’s Targets – ERod, RdlR, Alvarez, Rajai
  5. Factor Grid

1. More Trade Talk

Yesterday included two trades that didn’t happen (one may still be executed in a more complicated form) and the end of the Cole Hamels saga. Carlos Gomez was nearly traded to the Mets, but they reportedly backed out due to medical concerns. That’s great news for fantasy owners since New York is a massive downgrade for Gomez. Not only is Citi Field bad for right-handed power, there’s almost no synergy in the Mets lineup. At least the Brewers have Ryan Braun, Gerardo Parra, and Adam Lind.

The Dodgers are rumored to be receiving a heap of reinforcements for Hector Olivera and some Low-A prospects. Mat Latos, Alex Wood, Jim Johnson, and Luis Avilan are expected to bolster the Dodgers roster. Jose Peraza could see time in the playoffs as a pinch runner. Those who expected Peraza to be activated by the Braves right around now can probably start shopping for a replacement.

Of course the big trade was Hamels to the Rangers. It’s a small hit on Hamels’ value due to the friendlier hitters park and swap to the AL. I wouldn’t treat him any differently. He’s still a very good pitcher who occasionally gives up too many home runs.

The Phillies received a bigger return than I expected, largely because they kicked in cash AND took Matt Harrison off the Rangers’ hands. Jorge Alfaro is considered one of the best catching prospects in the game. It’s a position where the Phillies have failed to develop any meaningful prospects. Alfaro has a lot of swing-and-miss in his game. The current iteration of Mike Zunino is his floor. A right-handed Brian McCann might represent his ceiling. I’ve seen only positive comments about his receiving. Look for the prospect follow up on FanGraphs for more detail.

The inclusion of Nick Williams was huge. He’ll help to form a strong core with Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez, and J.P. Crawford. We could see all four in a Phillies uniform by this time next season. From everything I read, Jake Thompson could be a closer now, but there’s a chance he’ll stick in the rotation.

2. Daily DFS – Carrasco, Holmberg

Early: The two early games pit Max Scherzer against three decent pitchers. The Nationals are the only team in the time slot with a decent offense. I might try Padres righties against Jon Niese. Personally, I don’t bother with two game GPPs. Too much overlap. Three is my minimum.

Late: We’re left with 11 late games. I love Carlos Carrasco’s matchup with the stripped down Athletics. At $9,200, he costs considerably less than Chris Sale or Jake Arrieta. He has the same ceiling as those luminaries, although he’s shown a bit of a hangover in the four starts since his 26 out no-hit bid. Carrasco is likely to win since he’s opposed by Chris Bassitt

Right-handed Pirates are the play tonight against lefty David Holmberg at Great American Ball Park. Andrew McCutchen is a must. He’s the only hitter who approaches Paul Goldschmidt’s production against southpaws. And the stadium matchup is fantastic. Others like Jung-ho Kang, Starling Marte, and Neil Walker are affordable.

Stack Targets: Holmberg, Bassitt, Marco Estrada, Miguel Gonzalez, Alfredo Simon, Phil Hughes, Danny Duffy, J.A. Happ, Aaron Harang, Chris Rusin

3. GB / FB Splits

The following hitters are recommended based on the works of Shane Tourtellotte and Dan Fansworth. They show ground ball hitters perform better against fly ball pitchers and vice versa. Using three-year values for hitter OPS and pitcher GB%, here are today’s top recommendations. Use this link for Jeff’s full list.

If you like choice, you have it – 38 names.

Russell Martin v Danny Duffy
Mitch Moreland and Shin-Soo Choo v Michael Pineda
Ryan Howard, Ben Revere, Cesar Hernandez v Shelby Miller
Jedd Gyorko v Jon Niese
Matt Wieters, J.J. Hardy, and Nolan Reimold v Alfredo Simon
Wilmer Flores v Andrew Cashner
Josh Reddick v Carlos Carrasco
Billy Hamilton, Todd Frazier, and Brandon Phillips v Jeff Locke
Carlos Santana and Michael Bourn v Chris Bassitt
Yunel Escobar v Dan Haren
Sean Rodriguez v David Holmberg
Salvador Perez and Jarrod Dyson v Marco Estrada
J.D. Martinez v Miguel Gonzalez
Kyle Seager and Austin Jackson v Phil Hughes

4. Tomorrow’s Targets – ERod, RdlR, Alvarez, Rajai

Pitchers to Start: Eduardo Rodriguez is the Jekyll and Hyde of fantasy pitchers. In three of his 11 outings, he’s allowed 22 runs in 10 innings. In the other eight starts, he’s allowed seven runs in 51.1 innings. Justin Verlander just squatted on the Rays yesterday, but they’re still the third best offense against left-handed pitching.

Also consider: Erasmo Ramirez, Tommy Milone

Pitchers to Exploit: Rubby de la Rosa isn’t the most exploitable pitcher of the day, but he is the most interesting. With an 11.6 percent swinging strike rate, de la Rosa has plenty of fans. His 4.52 ERA can be pinned upon a 20.2 percent HR/FB ratio. He’s a homer prone pitcher with swing-and-miss stuff. He’s opposed by the Astros, a lineup that leads all of baseball with 140 home runs. They also have 906 strikeouts – second highest in the league (Cubs, 915 K).

Also consider: Buck Farmer, Matt Wisler, Michael Lorenzen, Nick Martinez, CC Sabathia, Scott Feldman, Kyle Kendrick

Hitters (power): Pedro Alvarez is right at 50 percent owned. He’s a solid pick up against a right-handed pitcher at Great American Ball Park. Lorenzen doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, and he’s struggled with his control. He’s allowed an elevated home run rate in 78 innings. In my opinion, he’s not ready for the majors. Alvarez could feast with multiple home runs. He probably won’t strike out three times, but never count it out.

Also consider: Alex Guerrero, Scott Van Slyke, Jake Lamb, Preston Tucker, Geovany Soto, Yonder Alonso

Hitters (speed): It’s Rajai Davis day. This is usually where I comment about him morphing into a super hero against left-handed pitchers. Wei-Yin Chen has been excellent this season, but he still has problems with right-handed hitters. Davis could offer power and speed.

Also consider: Tyler Saladino, Alexei Ramirez

5. The Factor Grid

The table below indicates which stadiums have the best conditions for hitters today. The color coding is a classic stoplight where green equals go for hitters. The weather conditions are from SI Weather’s home run app. A 10/10 means great atmospheric conditions for home runs. A 1/10 means lousy atmospheric conditions.

The entire Northeast is a storm risk today. That encompasses four games including one of the two early contests. There are plenty of hitter friendly parks.

The Link.

This post is not brought to you by any DFS platform. The current author is quite pleased to present a DFS ad free environment. 





You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam

2 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Not Kiley
8 years ago

Baseball America rated Alfaro as possessing very poor receiving skills last offseason. LOTS of passed balls.