Chad Young’s 2026 Bold Predictions: Recap

Back in early March, when we were young and naive, full of hope and optimism, not yet beat down by the Tommy John surgeries and broken hamates of the world, I shared my 10 bold predictions for the 2026 fantasy season.

I sorted those predictions from “coldest to boldest” so I’ll go through them in that order here. I guess that means if I miss on the first couple, things could get really ugly, huh?

My goal in evaluating these will be to ask three questions: 1) was I right? 2) was this prediction helpful for fantasy drafters? and 3) do I expect to double down on this for 2027?

Ozzie Albies sets a career-high in steals.

Well, we are off to a terrific start, aren’t we? Albies not only stole just four bases this year, he was caught four times, as well. I was betting on Atlanta running more and Albies continuing to be one of their most aggressive runners. Well, they ran more! Kind of. Technically.  In 2026, they were 23rd in MLB with 83 steals; in 2025 they were 26th with 82. That’s more! But obviously this is just not a team that plans to run much.

And Albies, rather than rebounding, trended the wrong direction. His 27.1 mph sprint speed was a career low, rather than a rebound to the 28+ numbers he put up a few years ago. His 10th percentile base running value is also a career low.

Albies also had a career low wRC+ backed up by a career low xwOBA.

My three answers are pretty clear here: No, I was not right; No, this did not turn out to be useful advice or guidance; and no, I am not betting on Albies again in 2027.

The top ten catchers in Ottoneu FanGraphs points per game (400+ PA) will include at least three players whose average salary in first year leagues is $5 or less.

That 400+ PA limit did a lot of interesting work here. Here are a few names of players who would have cracked the top 10 in P/G, but didn’t touch that 400 PA limit:

• Eduardo Valencia (6.1 P/G; 138 PA)
• Leo Bernal (5.4; 102
• Ryan Jeffers (5.3; 368)
• Endy Rodríguez (51.; 159)

And here are not just the top 10 but all catchers who met the 400 PA limit:

Only 16! In my prediction, I named Moreno as a candidate (nailed it!), as well as Yainer Diaz (4.4 P/G and 361 PA, so close), Francisco Alvarez (he’s on the table, but not quite high enough), Logan O’Hoppe (ugh), Moises Ballesteros (nope), and Ryan Jeffers (32 PA shy of an easy yes here).

That said, I have a little issue which is that I don’t have good data on what first year salaries were at the time I wrote. However, Dingler and Hicks are still below $5 average in first year leagues. Those two plus Moreno make this a win.

I was right and this was good draft advice – if you waited on the cheap C, you had a real chance to do well. Even if you missed in March, a lot of these guys could be had inexpensively in April or May. And yes, I will double-down on this next year. There always seems to be fluctuation in catcher performance. I still think Alvarez and Diaz are interesting. Maybe Jeffers gets to 400 PA next year.

Kenley Jansen has 30+ saves.

Let’s start with the obvious: 22 is not 30. But my main point was that everyone seemed ready to write off Jansen and assume a committee in Detroit, and I wasn’t buying it:

Fantasy managers seem set on assuming a committee in Detroit. And, yes, other pitchers will get chances. But Jansen is the closer, and he is still a good enough pitcher to hold that job and lock down 30+.

And I think everything in those sentences proved correct. I thought the Tigers would be better than they were, and pure volume definitely hurt here Jansen’s 22 saves were the most on the team by 20 – no one else had more than two – but the team only had 32 saves total. Only the Angels, Giants, and Mets had fewer. If the Tigers managed to get to about 45 saves, roughly a middle-of-the-pack number, Jansen might have gotten to 30.

And while he wasn’t elite, he was, in fact “good enough…to hold that job,” posting a 3.20 ERA and continuing to earn saves through the end of the season.

What sunk this was health. Jansen dealt with a groin issue and missed about three weeks mid-season. He threw 45 innings over 50 appearances, easily 10 innings less than we would have expected before the year; maybe more.

No, I was not right, but yes, this was directionally helpful – Jansen was a good source of saves as long as he was healthy and when he wasn’t, you could bench him. As for 2027, I am not sure I want to double-down on Jansen, but I would probably bet on the Tigers to have a capital-C Closer again.

The Colorado Rockies have three outfielders return $10 of value in all Ottoneu formats.

This is a tough one because it is a bit hard to measure. The argument here was that even if you had to only use them at home, there would be three Colorado OF worth $10 on those home stats alone. And…well…you be the judge. Per the auction calculator, here are the overall values for Colorado OF who returned at least $0:

But this doesn’t tell the whole story. The prediction was based on using them for their home platoon splits, and not absorbing the poor performances on the road.

For example, Moniak put up 4.35 P/G this year, but was over 6.39 P/G at home in 62 games played. That was in 241 PA. Aaron Judge, in 66 games and 285 PA put up $11 of value this year, at 6.31 P/G. Moniak at home was better than that. Yes, it was four fewer games, but that extra 0.8 P/G matters, as does the fact that you could have been picky with him on the road and gotten some value there. With that kind of H/R split in play, I think it is likely that Moniak, Castro and Carrigg all make this cut, along with McCarthy.

The low volume on all of these guys might leave them short, so I won’t take full credit here, but yes, this was the right idea and yes, I’ll be back to bet on Rockies in 2027, even if I can only play them at home.

Thomas Saggese posts a .330 wOBA in 450+ PA. 

Saggese became a breakout fantasy star in the second half when he posted exactly a .330 wOBA. In 98 PA. And I can just ignore his first half, right? No? Okay, so 180 PA of a .286 wOBA isn’t even close, and given the hot finish was so brief, I can’t even say this was good draft advice, but that should be enough to bring me back next year, right?

I don’t know, to be honest. There are some positive signs, but I didn’t really trust the breakout while it was happening, and I think I need to give him some closer attention this off-season before committing.

Yordan Alvarez puts up 1,100 points in Ottoneu points leagues.

Ok, this one is easy. I made a big claim at 1,100 and he blew by that, posting 1,296.4 points. In the prediction, I wrote:

So this prediction requires him to basically be at his best – or maybe better – and be as healthy as he has ever been – or maybe healthier – all in the same season.

Career high games played? Check. Career high PA? Check. Career high wOBA? Allllllmost. His .429 falls just short of the .432 he posted as a rookie.

So, yeah, I nailed this. And where I paid a fair price for him in 2026, I’ll gladly keep in 2027. But when draft season comes and people are paying for a repeat, I am probably going to fade Alvarez. I think he is great, I think he is a star, but I also think 2027 won’t quite live up to 2026.

Tyler Glasnow crosses the 800 point threshold in Ottoneu FanGraphs Point Scoring.

The Glasnow and Alvarez predictions were basically the same idea – elite performer gets healthy and performs elitely. They were not the same result. Glasnow barely got halfway to 800 points. He performed well enough to get there, but only 74 innings isn’t going to get you to 800 points, no matter how good you are.

No, I did not get this right, and no it wasn’t even directionally right. I was callling for his first 140+ inning season and he barely got to half that. I guess that was kind of directionally right, given he was on exactly the right pace. But if you drafted Glasnow on my rec, he didn’t help you nearly enough.

And I am not going to double-down on this. Glasnow is somehow 33-years-old and it no longer feels reasonable to think he is ever going to put up 140+ IP in a season.

George Kirby is a top 5 SP in all Ottoneu scoring systems.

Many of my predictions were wrong. Not many were this wrong. This was very wrong. Per the Auction Calculator, Kirby returned negative value in all Ottoneu formats except SABR Points, where his low walk rate matters more and his high BABIP matters not at all.

How did this go so wrong? How did it not! His K% dropped to 20%, a new career low and well below his 23.9% career rate coming into the year. His BB% jumped to 6.3%, a new career-worst and well above his career 3.6% rate coming into the year. When you steadily put up 20% K%-BB% year after year after year and suddenly that drops to 13%? Things are not going to go well. As if that weren’t enough, his BABIP jumped .032 from a career .304 rate coming into the year to a career-worst .336 this year.

Digging deeper, though, a lot looks similar to the past. His stuff+is down a little, but not a ton. His location+ is steady. His line drive rate, IFFB%, hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and more look…fine. So I’ll be back in on Kirby in 2027. I think the BABIP regresses towards the league and he gains just a bit in K and BB – enough to push him back to results closer to his 2025 ERA estimators. I am not expecting or even hoping for “top 5 in all formats” anymore – but if the market adjusts too much, I want to buy low.

Kyle Manzardo is a top 10 first baseman in Ottoneu points leagues (top 10 by P/G, 500+ PA).

I am not even looking up these numbers. This season was a mess for Manzardo and he ended up spending the end of the year in Triple-A and was left off the Guardians post-season roster, which is remarkable given his 13 HR are still tied for 5th on this team.

I do still believe Manzardo is better than he showed in 2026, but he was good (114 wRC+) and not great (for a 26-year-old?) after his demotion. I am willing to buy into a return to his 2025 form, but it is going to be hard to pay for any upside in 2027 drafts. It might be hard to draft him at all.

The Cincinnati Reds provide not one, not two, but THREE top-ten 2B in FanGraphs Points leagues (top 10 by P/G, 500+ PA).

At times, this looked plausible. Spencer Steer (if we just imagine him with 500 PA and the same P/G) would have been 18th and was heating up before he got hurt. I think he might have found his way onto this list had he stayed in the lineup.

Matt McLain had some stretches where it looked like he might be figuring it out. But the net results were ugly and he came up four PA shy of the 500 PA cut-off I set.

And then there is Sal Stewart. He was good.

The only thing I really got right was that McLain got the bulk of the time at 2B, despite the poor performance, but there was enough room for Steer and Stewart to get eligibility, as well. I think the advice to buy in on these three was 2/3rds solid – Steer was useful, especially as a 2B/OF, and will likely be useful again next year, if helpful. Stewart is a star. And McLain? Well, there’s always next year.