After my first attempt into the estimating FAAB bids, I’ve been working away matching up ownership jumps with the actual bids. I’m close to being done as I work backward from the most recent weeks to the season’s beginning. By using these most recent values I found some interesting conclusions along with FAAB estimates for this week.

First, thanks again to everyone who has suggested any improvements. I’m trying to implement as many as possible. Second, if you are reading this more than a week from the publish date, look for newer articles. I’m just at the initial stages of creating the FAAB estimate equations.

As for information I’ve found out.

1. Owners spend a ton of FAAB chasing Saves. Of the top-10 players with the most money spent on them from week 13 to week 15, six were potential closers with 27 teams spending $1550 on A.J. Minter in week 14.
One issue possibly driving this high value is that for a team to win the overall NFBC prize, they must beat all the other 509 owners. They can’t dump a category. Owners who are behind with Saves are still grinding away. Other leagues may not see values this high.

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Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Zack Wheeler (New York Mets) – Wheeler is finally getting proper time in the Mets rotation and he’s developing into a dependable arm, featuring a 2.73 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate across his last four starts. A 13.2% over whiff rate and a double-digit mark in each of these starts is a product of both increased velocity (97.1mph average four-seamer!) and an increased reliance on his slider. Get on board before your entire league catches on.

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A couple weekends ago, Dave Appelman asked my fellow writers and me what features we’d like to see available at RotoGraphs (more additions are in the works) and a FAAB (free agent acquisition budget) bid estimator was discussed. With so many leagues and so many bidding setups, I accepted the daunting challenge. I’m beginning to produce some limited usable results.

Before I go into the many inputs in FAAB bids such as declining budgets and absentee owners, I needed:

1. A way to measure owner seniment before the normal Sunday FAAB bids.

2. A reliable source of FAAB bids.

For the first source, I’d like to thank fellow RotoGraphs contributor, Al Melchior for pointing out that CBS Sportsline displays historic weekly ownership rates. Every host website will display ownership rates. What was important with this source is they have a ton of quick grab waiver wire leagues. As soon as a player bursts on the scene, owners can go pick them up off the wire. The ownership rates for these hot commodities immediately begin ticking up. These values are available but the bases need rounding a few times to collect them.

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We’re changing it up a little this week, formerly looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and moving toward a 30% threshold, with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Nick Kingham (Pittsburgh Pirates) – With Chad Kuhl leaving Tuesday’s game with forearm discomfort, it’s possible Kuhl heads to the DL for a significant amount of time, with Kingham taking his place as soon as this weekend. Kingham’s skill set speaks to a Top 60 starter if not higher with excellent fastball command and a swing-and-miss heavy slider. It’s a 1-2 punch that makes him 12-team relevant regardless of the rest of his arsenal and with a secure role in the rotation, Kingham could be in for a fantastic second half.

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Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Shane Bieber (Cleveland Indians) – The only reason Bieber qualifies is his lack of security inside the Indians rotation. It’s possible he only sticks for one more start – Thursday against the Tigers – as Carlos Carrasco returns from his short DL stint, but the possibility that he gets more starts alone should be enough to grab in most leagues now. And even if it’s just for one start, his control-heavy approach with a good fastball and solid secondary offerings make him a good play for Thursday’s matchup.

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Today’s deep league wire features a blast from the past and a hitter at a position you are almost surely in need of upgrading.

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Having attained our dotage, we’ve accumulated quite a collection of apothegms embodying the bitter wisdom we’ve acquired over the years. You reap exactly what you sow. Smart don’t count for much. If it’s misspelled on the menu, don’t order it. There’s no such thing as a quick trip to CVS.

To our collection we must now add: there are no safe relief pitchers. It of course happens—every ten minutes, it seems—that a starting pitcher you were counting on goes down, and you search among the baldies and retreads in the free agent pool for a starter to replace him. Contrarian as ever, we decided before the season that, as starters pitch fewer and fewer innings and get fewer and fewer wins, reliable non-closer relievers become viable alternatives to the Ian Kennedys and Derek Hollands of the world. Read the rest of this entry »

Each week through the season, I’ll be looking at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 15% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) and pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

It’s been another week of Fantasy Baseball, and the waiver wire has shifted. Let’s highlight my ten favorites, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Marco Estrada (Toronto Blue Jays) – This could be nothing, but it could be something as Marco Estrada has dominated in his last two starts, allowing 3 ER in 12 frames against the Yankees and Orioles, posting a wonderful 15/1 strikeout per walk ratio. His fastball has been toxic through the season, but has performed wildly better in these starts, suggesting that maybe, just maybe, a corner has been turned that could spell better days. One more great start will exile him from this weekly article, and this might be your only chance to act.

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Finding hitters on the wire is always challenging. We know scooping someone with a .500 AVG and a bundle of homers over a 2-3 week sample will come back to earth, but how much? Is it their one hot streak for the year or something more viable? I’ve got three surging bats to look at here. One is just north of 50% because I really wanted to talk about him. Deep leaguers will likely only be able to acquire these guys via trade, but we can dive into the backend of the player pool another time.

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It’s been entirely too long since my last post, as I was hit with a double whammy of a death in the family and an emergency appendectomy for yours truly, but I’m back in the saddle!

Before I get into the meat of this article, I’d just like to give an update on the status of the ottoneu power rankings. I had some issues with the scripts when I tried to run the rankings for April, and my intention was to post May rankings last week, but obviously life got in the way. At this point I think it makes the most sense to just wait until June is over, so expect the first power rankings to be published the first week in July. Thanks for your patience!

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