Read the rest of this entry »

I feel I’m entering uncharted waters as the FAAB results are agreeing and conflicting with the narratives. For the first few weeks, my FAAB predictor was working fine and then right before the trade deadline, most bids were a third of the expected values. While I speculated owners were hoarding FAAB for trade deadline moves, I had no evidence yet for the assumption. I’ll show the assumption might have been right and what to expect to spend this week’s bids.

Overall Trends

When I last ran this report (sorry for missing last week, but I was at the SABER Seminar) on the 34 leagues in the NFBC Main Event, the estimates were far from the results. Two ideas crossed my mind as causes. First, dead owners were no longer spending, or they were saving every dollar for deadline deals, especially those who had the most FAAB. It seems like the FAAB hoarding situation was correct as spending spiked as the highest percentage of remaining FAAB was spent last week.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

German Marquez (Colorado Rockies) – It’s a pretty easy case for Marquez: He’s averaged over eight strikeouts per game across his last five starts – including three games in Coors. He’s improved his curveball, earned a 10%+ swinging strike rate in each game and while he has run into some trouble along the way, it’s a 3.15 ERA with a 30% strikeout rate and 5.5% walk rate in his last seven outings. Take a chance.

Read the rest of this entry »

The non-waiver trade deadline has passed, which resulted in a flurry of deals that have vaulted many players into new roles. Let’s discuss two beneficiaries.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Derek Holland (San Francisco Giants) – With Johnny Cueto going down with TJS, Holland looks to have a firm grip on a rotation spot in San Fran and you should capitalize on it. He moved over from the third base side of the rubber to first base in the middle of the June and the results have followed. Across his last 47.2 IP and 9 starts, Holland has boasted a 2.83 ERA, 26% K rate, and digestible 8% walk rate, making him a prime discount option.

Read the rest of this entry »

With the non-waiver trade deadline over, it’s time to focus on mixed-league actionable moves. With most of the trades, a player’s value didn’t change enough to make a roster transaction. For example, Chris Archer was owned in all leagues before the trade from the Rays to Pirates and will be owned in all leagues after the trade. Many of the biggest trades are just mixed-league irrelevant. I ranked the players who should be moving on and off rosters in the next few days as the dust settles.

Note: I’m 100% sure I missed something obvious. There was just a ton of moves. I will update this article as I find more players or my obvious errors are pointed out.

Top Gainers (Waiver Wire Targets)

• Jose Leclerc (Rangers): After the trade of Keone Kela to the Pirates and Jake Diekman to the Diamondbacks, the Rangers have a new closer. The 24-year-old righty has been a dominant setup man this year with a 12.7 K/9 and 2.27 ERA and should be a fine closer. There is a chance Alex Claudio gets this role.

• Kirby Yates (Padres): If owners were reluctant to roster own him with the chance he’d also get traded, they can pick him up now.

• Mychal Givens (Orioles): With Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, and Zach Britton traded away, Givens is in line for a handful of Saves.

Read the rest of this entry »

The fantasy baseball season is in the final stretch. This section of road is the easiest going. Owners quit since their team is out of contention and/or they want to concentrate on football. With these quitters out of the way, it’s easier going for the active owners. Here’s a short ramble on how the active owner should approach the subject:

The inspiration for this rant came after I saw my FAAB bids in a league this morning. I was down to $12 in FAAB out of $1000 but $0 bids do exist. I noticed one must add (Yangervis Solarte) and bid $10 on him to keep everyone honest. I won to my surprise.

The reason I was taken off guard was that several teams were holding tons of FAAB dollars. Here are the post FAAB totals.

1. $971
2. $880
3. $767
4. $719
5. $328
6. $314
7. $260
8. $202
9. $168
10. $88
11. $85
12. $75
13. $41
14. $1 <– me
15. $0

This league is supposed to be competitive but only six owners made additions (ranks 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 13). Having some teams not bid is understandable. Some weeks I don’t add players as I have too many players coming off the DL. But nine sitting out?

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week’s results were the first major failure in my FAAB estimation procedure. The main issue was that the average NFBC bids were about 1/3 of the expected values after being almost dead on for several weeks.

I’m not going to re-create the formulas I use last week because I’m worried owners held tight to their FAAB for the trade deadline. Almost nothing was spent last week except some owners speculating on Garrett Hampson. Spending has been tight for a couple of weeks. Here are the graphs of the totals spent each week and percentage.

I understand the overall values dollar values leveling off but the percentage change should be similar. From week 7 to 16, the values hovered around 8% to 15% of total FAAB left. The last two week have been the lowest since the first few weeks.

Since this is my first year collecting the data, I’m not sure of the effect of the trade deadline in mixed leagues. While it’s not as big of a deal as in Only leagues, roles are lost and gained as players move around.

Read the rest of this entry »

Each week I look at the collection of starting pitchers owned in under 30% of leagues (consensus Yahoo/ESPN ownership from Fantasy pros) with a few extra sub 10% discount options at the end, pointing out the options to consider if you need an extra arm or two at the end of your staff.

Let’s highlight my ten favorite starting pitcher options that may be available on your waiver wires, roughly ordered from top to bottom:

Under 30% Owned

Nathan Eovaldi (Boston Red Sox) – Eovaldi’s 8 ER outing against the Twins is sure to explain his lowered usage rate, though if you look past it, you’ll see his other four starts in his last five games returning just 3 ER while collecting 31 strikeouts. A move to Boston will boost the win total while preventing Eovaldi from regularly facing one of the best offenses around. This is an add that you can roll with through the rest of the season.

Read the rest of this entry »

The upcoming non-waiver trade deadline is always a fun time for fantasy owners, especially for those in mono leagues. Trades open up opportunities for those already on the club or newly arriving, plus prospects recalled to replace those traded away. Furthermore, many teams are treating this time as the official time to play for the future. Let’s discuss two names who may benefit from such moves in the near future.

Read the rest of this entry »