Archive for Waiver Wire

Jack Hannahan (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

The months where Joe Mauer isn’t the most productive graduate of Cretin-Derham Hall High School are few and far between, but Hannahan ended the month so hot, the Indians are scrambling to order him flame-retardant pants. For the month, Hannahan hit .420/.491/.660 with three home runs, all of which came after the 29th. Apparently, having a newborn at home is the new market inefficiency.

Assuming that Hannahan hasn’t entered into some Faustian Bargain, there’s virtually no way he’ll continue to have this kind of success. If this were August 1 instead of September 1, I doubt Hannahan even registers on most fantasy players’ radar, but we’re in that part of the season where grabbing the hot hand can seem like a winning idea, and thus, here we are.

He bears all the hallmarks of one ripe for regression — call me a monster if you must, I just don’t think his .514 August BABIP is going to stick around — but it should be noted that his blistering month only pushed his 2011 BABIP up to .305, so he was in line for a stroke of better luck. If you accept that Hannahan had bad luck early in the season, then regressed to the mean rather all at once, then his September production should be something resembling his true talent level. For Hannahan, this makes him a non-factor: his power is spotty at best and his average isn’t much better. If you need a Hail Mary to make it into the playoffs this week, I’d rather wish on Hannahan than Alex Rios, but expecting him to continuing hitting multiple home runs a week is a bridge too far.

Dayan Viciedo (Yahoo: 12 percent owned, ESPN: 12 percent owned)

If, or when, the White Sox miss the playoffs, you won’t have to listen to AM radio in Chicago long before you hear someone say that Adam Dunn is a waste of money and that if the team had just played Viciedo all year, they would have made the playoffs. I’m not ready to go quite that far, but Vicideo’s translated line of .256/.309/.412 is a bit better than Dunn’s .163/.290/.289, so maybe there is some truth in the madness.

ZiPS has Viciedo hitting .266/.299/.453 with 3 HR for the rest of the season, which strikes me as a little low. It would not surprise me to see him hit an extra home run or two and hit closer to .280. At the moment, he holds only 3B eligibility, though I expect that he’ll have qualified as an OF by the end of next week, as he started in right field twice this week.

In the minors this year, Viciedo hit 16 of his 20 home runs off of right-handers as part of his .305/.357/.501 line against them. He wasn’t bad against lefties, hitting. 270/.386/.459 against them, but if you’re desperately looking for the second half of a platoon, you can justify using Viciedo part time to try and capitalize on his power. If you don’t need to platoon him, I wouldn’t bother with finding a partner for him; he’s playable all by his lonesome. With Carlos Quentin’s return still a few days away and with Dunn’s struggles, I see no playing time issues for Viciedo. He may have been called up before September, but as Viciedo is just 22, the Sox almost surely will use the next month to see if they have their starting third baseman for 2012 and beyond.

We continue looking ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher

Next up? First basemen.

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Here is a list of 2B owned in less than 10% of all ESPN leagues. They might be able to help a fantasy team in H2H playoffs or for a final push up the standings.

Jamey Carroll (7.3% owned) – Carroll has not had a good offensive season, especially in the power stats, 0 HR and 12 RBIs. The one item he can hlep a team with is his 0.291 AVG and 10 SB. If an owner is looking good in HRs and RBIs, they could add Carroll to help stabilize or help an AVG that is being dragged down by the likes of Kelly Johnson. Also, Carroll has the flexibility of being qualified at the SS position. Finally, he has gotten plenty of playing time (11 straight games), so he will be available to generate a few counting stats.

Robert Andino (7.3 % owned) – Andino has little value besides helping a team in a deep or AL only league to have a roster-able full time player. His SLG (0.323) is below his OBP (0.326) which is a warning sign to stay away. He has hit a total of 2 home runs this season and produced 21 RBIs. His 0.258 AVG is 17 points higher than his career average, so it is about maxed out. The only way I could see him as a useable player for an owner that is extremely desperate for counting stats. With his 3 eligible positions, he could be used as a flex option on other player’s days off.

Jose Altuve (7.1% owned) – Altuve has be a fairly serviceable 2B since playing his first game on July 20th. He currently has a 0.310 AVG, but not a lot more stats to be impressed with (1 HR and 3 SB in 152 PA). Like Carroll, he looks like a nice addition for a team to solidify their AVG, while not gaining a whole lot in counting stats. Also, he could be a nice bench player to fill in on off days.

Johnny Giavotella (6.1% owned) – Giavotella had the chance to be an OK option at 2B, but Ned Yost just can’t get over his love affair with Chris Getz. Giavotella, the Royals AAA player of the year, started playing all the time when first called up, but is now playing intermittently. When he does start, Getz is used as a late game replacement. He should be a decent option, but with Getz still in the picture, I would stay away from him for now.

Just one month to go in the regular season, so every little bit of help could make the difference between a top 3 finish in your league and wallowing in the mediocrity of finishing sixth.  With the numerous injuries that are popping up, you might just be in need of a quick fix, so here’s a pair of guys that can contribute in one way or another…

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After searching far and deep, I was only able to uncover one hidden gem for this week’s deep league waiver wire. Contrary to popular belief, not all White Sox hitters are cursed this year. This week’s pick will hopefully prove to be one of the few who manged to escape the can’t hit disease.

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Starting this week, I’ll be looking ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the young talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

First up? Catchers.

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With the fantasy playoffs nigh, here is a pair of outfielders who can help patch injury-induced holes in your lineup.

Seth Smith (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 53 percent owned)

While Smith has a devoted, vocal following, he doesn’t yet have the widespread name recognition that leads to really high ownership rates. This is good news for owners who need power, as Smith is widely available and is wrapping up a month in which he clubbed 7 HR, which ties him for the 10th most in baseball for the month of August. There’s good news in the fact that Smith isn’t purely a Coors Field mirage — he hits nearly as well on the road as he does at home — but that doesn’t mean Smith is a set-and-forget player. He’s set in a platoon with Eric Young Jr., which keeps him facing righties, and while it means owners need to keep an eye on the Rockies’ lineup, it’s better than having him face lefties on a consistent basis. Like the Rockies, you’ll get the most out of Smith if you pair him with a partner — ideally one with consistent playing time.

The Rockies play more than half of their games at home in September, including 13 of 15 games from September 5th to the 21st, which keeps Smith where he’s been most successful this year for the end of most leagues’ playoffs. If you’re in a league that plays until the dying day of the regular season, Smith does close the season with 10 games on the road, though the first four are against the Astros. Smith is certainly playable on the road, especially in Houston, but utilizing your platoon partner exclusively for the last three days of the season is a wise move, as Smith finishes the year in AT&T Park, a place that has been unkind to him over his career.

Johnny Damon (Yahoo: 42 percent owned, ESPN: 70 percent owned)

The difference between the way Damon began August and the way he has ended it is, somewhat literally, the difference between night and day. Damon’s resurgence began during the second game of the Rays’ August 16th doubleheader against the Red Sox. He entered the nightcap hitting .163/.236/.265 for the month, went 2-for-5 in that game to start an eight-game hitting streak, and has hit .309/.333/.636 with 3 HR since.

Like Smith, Damon is playable at home or on the road, but he, too, is clearly better at one place. Damon has substantially better road rate stats, though his home counting stats are very similar to his away numbers. Still, like Smith, Damon will spend those crucial days in mid-September in his preferred venue as a 10 game road trip takes the Rays to Baltimore, Boston, and New York. While a slog up the eastern seaboard seems like might pose match up problems, Damon has actually played better against the Sox and Yankees than he has against the Orioles.

I’m not terribly concerned that this is a dead cat bounce as Damon was hitting .279/.327/.426 prior to suffering a hand contusion against the Twins on July 6, an injury that lingered longer than expected, though Damon did not land on the disabled list. I see his improvement since then less as resurgence and more of an extension of his early season play with an interlude of ineffectiveness between acts. While he’s unlikely to make you forget that Nelson Cruz is languishing on your DL during a playoff chase, Damon is at least a functional stopgap.

As usual on Mondays, I will look at a few players coming off the DL that are owned in less than 50% of ESPN’s leagues.

Rajai Davis (hamstring, 37% owned): In Toronto, center fielders Colby Rasmus (wrist, 69% owned) and Davis are both on the DL right now. They should come off the DL in a couple weeks.

Toronto will play Rasmus regularly if he is available, limiting Davis’ value. Besides not getting regular playing time, Davis is coming off a hamstring injury. Toronto may have him take it easy for the rest of the year, thereby limiting his steals. In the mean time, Mike McCoy is getting the starts in CF.

Justin Smoak (nose, 19%): Justin looks to take back the Mariner’s 1B position from Mike Carp’s when he returns in around 2 weeks. Smoak’s fantasy value is being driven down by his his 20.7% K%. The K%, to go along with his low BABIP (0.253), is putting his AVG (0.231) under attack. With a below average AVG and league average home run ability (10.2 HR/FB), he will not cut it as a MLB 1B. He doesn’t look like a league keeper and hopefully your team has found a better solution for 2011 at 1B.

J.D. Drew (shoulder, 2%): Drew has played the most games in RF for the Red Sox this season. He is currently in the minors rehabbing and looks to join the Red Sox on Thursday when the rosters expand. I have not been able to find Boston’s plans for him, but it looks like there is not an everyday position for him when he returns. Josh Reddick has 2 more home runs in 20 less PA than Drew. Also he has a 0.283 AVG vice Drew’s 0.219. If I have a DL position available, I may pick him up and see how the situation unravels once he returns. If he starts, keep him. If he is just a bench player, ditch him.

Freddy Garcia (finger, 18% owned) – Garcia is a nice play for a team desperate for a few extra Wins. Freddy comes off the DL tonight (Monday) against Baltimore. While his peripheral stats aren’t the greatest, he is a good enough pitcher to keep the Yankees in a game to pick up a few Wins.

Carlos Carrasco (elbow, 5% owned) – Carrasco looks to be coming back in a week or two. If the Indians are still in the playoff picture will determine if he pitches this season. If they are still breathing, he could be used for a couple of starts. If not, he will likely be shut down for the season.

The fantasy season is coming down to the wire, so let’s focus on two waiver guys that will help boost your stolen base total down the stretch…

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Brandon Allen (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 4 percent owned)

Allen’s last two games in New York seem to paint a pretty accurate picture of him as a player. Tuesday night, he crushed two home runs over 400 feet; Wednesday, he struck out three times as part of an 0-for-4 night, seeing a total of 15 pitches.

Though some may call him a puffed-up product of the PCL, Allen’s minor league power numbers are far more than a league-induced mirage. Unless they’ve recently allowed metal bats in the PCL, a .956 OPS over parts of three seasons is still notable, especially since Allen pairs his power with an above-average walk rate, something he has continued to post during his minimal time in the majors. A little like Carlos Pena, Allen is a much better option in OBP leagues than he is in traditional AVG leagues, and a little like Mark Reynolds, if your league penalizes for strikeouts, it’s going to be hard for him to show enough power to overcome that handicap.

I’d like to see a little more of Allen in the AL before I recommend him across the board, but if you can live with him in a platoon situation, that’s a different matter. For his career, Allen has beaten righties like a rented mule, hitting .272/.365/.543 off of them, with 22 of his 44 career hits going for extra bases. Lefties still have the upper hand against Allen, he’s yet to hit a home run off of one, and his overall line is…execrable. .132/.246/.170 to be precise.

If you’re looking for Allen to revitalize a sagging outfield on his own, you’re in for a roller coaster ride. If you can pair him with someone like former teammate Chris Young, who approaches lefties with malice in his heart, that’s a solid solution.

Peter Boujos (Yahoo: 40 percent owned, ESPN: 60 percent owned)

While Allen, Mike Carp, and Casper Wells have all hit well of late out west, it’s hard to imagine anyone being hotter than Bourjos, who has been on quite a tear of late. Prior to Wednesday’s game, Boujos had hit .500/.500/.917 for the previous 7 days, and while he took an 0-for-4, his monthly line is still .359/.405/.667 with a season-best 5 HR.

Like Allen, Bourjos does have a pronounced platoon split, .336/.377/.570 against lefties versus .256/.313/.385 against righties, but unlike Allen, he’s worth playing against both port- and starboard-siders. While the unexpected power outburst is a pleasant surprise, owners can expect a more consistent contribution from Bourjos in the SB column. Unsurprisingly, Bourjos has better luck stealing off of right-handed pitchers — 12 SB in 15 attempts against righties compared to 5 SB in eight attempts against lefties — plus, while he slugs better against lefties, he has actually hit five of his eight home runs off of righties.

Typically, a .250-point OPS split is wide enough to merit a platoon partner if your bench can suffer the strain. However, with Bourjos, better to be thankful that he provides value against any type of pitcher than to risk losing out on his SB potential just because of a lower average. Between the two, I’d rather have Bourjos unless you’ve got a platoon partner to join with Allen. If you’re desperate for power, Allen’s more likely to provide it on anything resembling a consistent basis, but Boujos is a much stronger all-around option.