Archive for Waiver Wire

I’ll be here by 12:30! We can talk streamers, keepers, sandwiches, you know, whatever.

Let’s continue looking ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catchers, First Base, Second Base, Third Base, Shortstop

Up next? Outfielders.

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Marco Scutaro (Yahoo: 29 percent owned, ESPN: 19 percent owned)

While the Red Sox seem to be wilting a bit in the season’s final days, Marco Scutaro is trending in the opposite direction. After missing a week of action in mid-August due to a stiff back, Scutaro has been consistently in the lineup and has been hitting well ever since. His .325/.383/.482 line since his return actually undersells how good he’s been lately, as he has hit .436/.489/.641 in the 10 games he has started since September 1.

His recent run of great form is, as many runs of great form are, built on an inflated BABIP — .425 over the last 12 games — but there’s more to Scutaro’s success than simply getting luckier of late. His strikeouts have decreased steadily in the second half of the season, which means he’s putting the ball into play more often, which, in turn, made his spike in BABIP even better for owners.

While Scutaro won’t bat .425 on balls in play forever, his first half BABIP of .267 was due to rise, and he is racking up line drives at a better than average rate. It would not surprise me to see his September BABIP above .300 at month’s end, provided his line-drive rate doesn’t suddenly plummet. As long as that doesn’t happen, his BA will be an asset to anyone in need of a MI, but he should also contribute in both R and a few RBI.

Allen Craig (Yahoo: 3 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

We have now reached the point of the season where any injury, no matter how trifling it may seem, could be a season-ending injury. So it is with the hand injury Matt Holliday suffered late in Tuesday night’s game. If this were June or July, Holliday would take a few days off to let the swelling subside, then the team would reevaluate to see if he needed a stay on the disabled list, but considering that the time it’s going to take for the swelling to go down equals about half the remaining games, the Cards may well choose to shut Holliday down for the year.

The beneficiary of St. Louis’ left field vacancy is likely to be Allen Craig, another of the Cardinals young players whose season has been something of a jumble due to injuries. Craig missed 15 days early in the season with a strained groin, then a subsequent 63 days in the summer with a knee contusion. In his one full, healthy month, Craig started 17 games and hit .350/.420/.550. Obviously we can’t simply extrapolate that month out and say what a full season would look like, but the fact remains that when Craig has been healthy and in the lineup, he has been productive for the Cards.

Craig hit fifth on Wednesday, behind Pujols and Berkman in the heart of the Cardinals’ order. If Tony LaRussa continues to put him in that spot, it bodes well for his RBI chances as pitchers could certainly pitch around one or both of the other two — depending on the situation — to face Craig. If he can take advantage of those opportunities, his numbers will be strong heading into the end of the season. He also offers lineup versatility as he appeared in eight games at second base earlier in the year.

There is one caveat with Craig. The Cardinals are 4.5 games behind the Braves in the wild card race and just 5.5 behind the Brewers in the divisional race. Holliday is almost certain to miss the entire series against the Phillies, but if the team can gain ground on either opponent, setting up a real race over the last 12 games of the season, there will be a real incentive to get Holliday back. The extent of Holliday’s injury is definitely a factor here as well, but if the Cardinals are within 2-3 games of the Braves with a week to play and Holliday is anything resembling healthy, it may be hard to keep him off the field. In that case, Craig’s playing time becomes spotty once again. I don’t find this scenario particularly likely, but it’s worth watching if you choose to pick up Craig.

As Eno said in his Stat Grabs piece the other day, there’s no time and probably no chance to grab a well-rounded player off your waiver wire.  We are officially at the midway point here in the final month of the season and those fighting for the title in their roto leagues or are battling in a late championship week in their head to head league are probably looking for specific category help.   Catchers aren’t usually the biggest contributors in the game, but for fantasy purposes, there are probably enough out there that are finishing strongly and can kick in a little assistance here and there.

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Mike Trout (8% ESPN, 12% Yahoo) – Coming into the season, Mike was considered one of the top prospects in baseball. Since starting his first game on July 8th, he has struggled a bit in the majors by producing a slash line of 0.220/0.282/0.420. Fantasy owners have noticed his struggles and his ownership rate has dropped to 8% in ESPN leagues and 12% in Yahoo leagues. Several factors point to him being a valuable assest over the last few weeks of the season. Read the rest of this entry »

Injuries at this time of year, especially to your star players, can be absolutely brutal.  Head to head league owners are playing in championship games and every little bit of production helps as your roto season winds down.  With the likelihood that your waiver wire has been picked cleaner than a Thanksgiving turkey at Fatty McButterpants’ house, grabbing a last minute injury replacement just might be enough to carry you to the end.  For you NL-only leaguers and deep mixed league owners, here are two you might consider.

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We continue our look-ahead to the 2012 fantasy baseball season by highlighting the potential impact rookies at each position. Why? Because it’s never too early to begin thinking about next year, even if you’re still trying to win your league right now. And for those of you in keeper leagues, particularly deeper ones, these primers will be especially helpful, because you’ll find out which young players may be worth snatching up now — before other owners get a clue — so you can hang onto them next season, when their value kicks in. Think of it like an investment requiring only a little up-front cost that could pay off big in the near future.

Much like my Mining the Minors columns on this site, which focus on current-season impact more than long-term upside, these 2012 rookie primers are meant for players who will fulfill or are expected to fulfill their rookiedom next year. Also much like my MTM work, the point here is to find the right mix of opportunity and talent, so that you’re picking up a player who can contribute, either in a starting role or as a reserve, from Day 1 or soon thereafter. Chances are, I’ll hit on many of these same players in depth at some point in future Mining the Minors columns, but for now, it’s good to get ahead of the curve with a snapshot of the talent at each position.

To give you a brief idea of just how this sort of thing can be worthwhile, I’m in two deep keeper leagues, one AL-only and one NL-only, and around this time last year, I picked up Mark Trumbo, Jordan Walden and Brandon Beachy. Worked out pretty well, if I do say so myself.

Click on the position to see previous primers: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Third Base

Let’s hit on the shortstops.

Read the rest of this entry »

Only two weeks left in the regular season, this is nearly your last chance to go diving into the free agent pool and attempt to uncover some treasures.

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Matt Moore (Yahoo: 6 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

The Rays called up Matt Moore earlier this week, means the team’s top four prospects according to Baseball America have all been called up this season. While Rookie of the Year candidate Jeremy Hellickson was ranked more highly than Moore going into the season, BA chose Moore’s fastball and curveball as the best in the system. It’s obvious that Moore is a hugely talented prospect, and he’ll almost surely be fantasy relevant next season, but is he fantasy relevant now?

The majors will be Moore’s third level of the season, and he has already thrown a career high 155 innings. The good news is that while it is more innings than he’s ever thrown before, it’s neither an objectively huge amount of innings nor a large increase from his previous high of 144.2 IP. His minuscule WHIP (0.95) and tremendous K-rate (12.2 K/9) between Double- and Triple-A make him an appealing option, but his viability will depend largely on how much the Rays actually let him see the field.

Joe Maddon tweeted a window into how they were going to use Moore, saying they hoped to use him in the same way they used David Price in 2008. Unfortunately for owners looking to capitalize on Moore’s call up, Price’s 2008 usage can best be described as “at-will”: He made one start, then pitched in long relief once and three times in short relief for a total of 17 innings. If Moore follows a similar plan, he’s likely to give you strikeouts when he pitches, but how often that happens is going to be a factor of his effectiveness as well as whether the Rays keep in contact with the Red Sox in the wild card race.

If you’re streaming starters in AL-Only, he’s likely to get a start next week during the Rays’ doubleheader against the Yankees, but that’s obviously an unfavorable matchup. Ultimately, I’m really excited to see him pitch, but because of uncertain usage, I just don’t see him being a worthwhile risk in the fantasy playoffs.

Ryan Doumit (Yahoo: 11 percent owned, ESPN: 2 percent owned)

124. If it’s a career best RBI total, that’s a great year. Unfortunately for Doumit, that’s his career high in games played, which is…ungood. When he’s healthy, Doumit provides solid production as far as catchers are concerned with a career line of .271/.334/.442 for a .776 OPS. Unfortunately, health has been hard to come by for Doumit, which makes it hard for owners to draft or apparently even roster him. While he’s had at least one DL stint every season since 2006, Doumit has only been placed on the DL more than once in the same season twice and never since 2007.

Since returning from his most recent extended stay on the disabled list — 65 days lost due to a broken ankle — on August 3, Doumit has hit .330/.369/.515 with 4 HR. His .884 OPS since the All-Star Break is fifth best among catchers with at least 50 PAs, but he’s still rostered in fewer leagues than Jorge Posada or John Buck.

Doumit is getting the vast majority of the starts for the Pirates as the year draws to a close, and is likely to continue to do so as the team tries to evaluate whether or not to pick up his options for 2012 and 2013. With his yearly major injury behind him, Doumit is a safe pickup going forward and, unless you’re riding Alex Avila, Mike Napoli, or another of the top catchers, there’s a good chance Doumit will be an upgrade for you.

With pitchers being shut down to prevent injuries, there are a few pitchers (< 50% ownership rate) looking to coming back this season. Last week, I looked at 2 of the pitchers, Scott Baker (20% owned) and Johan Santana (8% owned). They would have the same opportunity of contributing as the two pitchers listed today, but with a better chance of being available in a league

All owned numbers are from ESPN.

Clay Buchholz (back- 43% owned) – Clay is making progress for a return back to Boston. With the current disrepair of the Red Sox pitching staff, I could see them making a larger than normal push to get Clay back into the rotation.

He is just beginning to throw from the mound, so a return is still up in the air. I see him getting one or two starts to see if he is ready for the post season. He may be a source of a win or two with the help of Boston’s offense.

His talent level will be tough to predict for just a couple of games. He put up around 6.4 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 during the time he has thrown this season. I would not be surprised to see his K’s down a bit because of being rushed back into pitching and his back, which don’t heal easily, was the spot of injury. Depending on the risk an owner is willing to take, he may be an option over the last week or so.

Francisco Liriano (shoulder – 41% owned) – Francisco is trying to come back to pitch a bit this season. No exact return time has been reported, so when or if he returns is still unknown. Like Buchholz, his ability to help much over the last few games is limited. His best usage may be for a team in the finals of a H2H league that has lost some starting pitching recently.

Before going on the DL, he average 7.4 K/9 and 5.0 BB/9. These numbers are off from 2010 when he had 9.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. It seems his ERA/FIP/xFIP follow his fastball speed:

2005 (94.8 MPH): 5.70/3.32/1.99
2006 (94.7 MPH): 2.16/2.55/2.38
2008 (90.9 MPH): 3.91/3.87/4.25
2009 (91.7 MPH): 5.80/4.87/4.48
2010 (93.7 MPH): 3.62/2.66/2.95
2011 (91.8 MPH): 4.84/4.55/4.47

If he makes one start, an owner may look to see where his fastball stands. If it is averaging less than 92 MPH, you make look at other options. If there is any report from the minors of his speed, I would subtract 2 MPH from it. Usually only the top speed is reported, so the average will be less.

Liriano may or may not be heading back to the Twins. I would not consider him a top SP candidate, but he could be one of the few options left this late in the season.