Archive for Vegas Lines

It’s time to gleen into tonight’s games to see what information can be pulled out.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

• Our projections hate some pitchers but they really hate Tim Melville.
• The Books have no faith in Chandler Shepard first major league start tonight.
• FanGraphs has put too much faith into Blake Snell’s return from the IL.
• The Books seems to expect more out of Brett Anderson than an ERA over 4.50.

Game 1 (Tuesday): Phillies at Braves
Favorite: Braves
Book’s Breakeven % (Braves): 64.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 52.1%

FanGraphs doesn’t buy into Dallas Keuchel’s 3.35 ERA (3.91 ERA projection) but Vince Velasquez is pegged at a 4.86 ERA. The Braves aren’t even getting all the home-field advantage on a break-even game. I’d have to side with the Books on this one.
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It’s time to go over a few more games from this past weekend and today.  All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through games trying to find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Notes from the lines:

• Vegas is in love with John Means even though he’s struggled in the second half.
• The FanGraphs projection for pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery (e.g. Garrett Richards and Johnny Cueto) seem too optimistic.
• Marlins Pablo López and Elieser Hernandez have struggled in the second half.
• Zac Gallen’s projections seem off and he could be a sneaky upside option going into 2020.

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I’m back for more diving into how the Vegas betting odds on MLB games can help fantasy owners find any new information. All the background information is available in this introductory article and I’m just going to continue grinding through articles find discrepancies and any useful fantasy information like the following.

Fantasy usable information.

• Michael Wacha could be around a 4.00 ERA starter since coming off the IL.
• Ryan Yarbrough’s projection could closer to 3.50 or lower going forward.
• Yordan Alvarez’s projection going forward seems on the low side.
• Zack Wheeler second half strikeouts are headed down.
• Vegas seems to be buying into Dakota Hudson’s breakout.

Game 1 (Monday): Brewers at Marlins
Favorite: Brewers
Vegas Breakeven % (Brewers): 68.5%
FanGraphs Win%: 58.4%

There are several items which could be making the Marlins look worse. Rober Duggar’s projected ERA was near 5.00 but his in-season FIP and xFIP were closer to 6.00. Additionally, the Marlins bullpen ERA is a half run higher than the Brewers.
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Gambling and baseball go way back. Everyone, casinos and betters, look to gain an edge with the hope of free money. Today, I’m starting a series diving into the lines with the hope of finding which information, fantasy or otherwise, can be extracted from the sharks and books using the FanGraphs win rate as a baseline.

To start the study, I used the game projections available here at FanGraphs and the historic Vegas line. While the FanGraphs projections were right more times than wrong, there was a systematic error I quickly found. The home-field advantage was set to 8%. The home field teams were expected to win 54% of the time and lose 46% (math!) for the 8% spread. I looked back at the league-wide home-field advantage over the past dozen season and found a smaller margin.
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