There’s news about the Blue Jays closer! It’s not that he’s had shoulder surgery — both of the candidates have already managed that. Instead, it’s that Casey Janssen will get the first crack at the role, according to his manager. So now, instead of wondering if Sergio Santos is the guy, the question is how long Janssen will hold the role.
The Houston Astros’ shortstop is gone! Long live the Houston Astros’ shortstop.
In all honesty, Jed Lowrie probably wasn’t the kind of guy you build a dynasty around. Call him Edward VIII — to avoid the problems that might arise from entrusting your rebuilding team in the hands of a capable, but oft-injured shortstop, Lowrie abdicated his throne as Edward once did. Then again, his successor may not last long either. Well, Tyler Greene, Jake Elmore and Marwin Gonzalez are all under team control until the end of the 2016 season, but there’s the matter of the other challengers for the title. The Houston Astros have at least three top prospects at the position, including their number one (or two) prospect and last year’s number one overall pick, Carlos Correa.
No matter. In order to put one foot in front of the other and keep an orderly society, all we need to know is who will be on top of the heap this year.
Before diving back into this, after our long weekend away, I want to let you know what to expect this (hopefully this) week: Part 5 is clearly here right now, and Mike and I are working on parts 6 and 7 as we speak. In Part 6, I’ll be looking at the equations Mike came up with the other day along with one other equation that smarter statistical minds than mine are currently developing. Ideally, part 6 will be something of a wrap on our attempt to find an equation for expected HR/FB within a season. In Part 7, Mike will take a deeper look at a handful of players, and see how useful this new equation really is.
Today, I’ll be looking at another piece of the puzzle – what happens in future years to guys who show breakout distance on their fly balls.
We’ll be wrapping up analysis of our mock auction from a few weeks back this week, and I wanted to bring you analysis from two more participants in the mock before we did. And give you a chance to win an FG+, since I mucked up the first shot at it this morning with an easy one.
Yesterday, Mike Podhorzer shared part one of this epic journey and teased that today we would be incorporating batted ball angle to see if that helps our model. I am, in fact, going to do that today.
But first, I am going to take a quick step back and let you know my reasons for doing this. Next, I’ll introduce some data on batted ball angle, as noted above.
They deserve your sympathy and gratitude. The 14 managers that came in on three separate days and drafted for hours and hours just for your pleasure — they deserve some praise. So, rip up their teams if you will, but maybe add a thank you on the end. Cause this behemoth took almost seven hours, and if it was anyone’s fault it took that long, it was mine, except that auctions take forever. In any case, it was about seven hours that these guys spent for your pleasure.
Well, some of the pleasure was ours. Auctions are fun. In a snake draft, if a guy likes a player just a fraction more than you, you don’t get a chance to draft the player. But in auction, you can spend exactly as much as you want on the dude.
Well, exactly as much as you want in the moment. There are always regrets.
Being eligible at multiple positions always raises a player’s appeal. Being able to move a guy from first base or outfield, and second or short for instance are common and valuable. Martin Prado has taken the role of Chone Figgins of a half decade ago, being eligible across almost every position while also being an above average fantasy player to boot.
While Prado does not wow at any one specific roto category, he is rather consistent and added a whole new dimension to his game last year with his legs. The concept of consistency will be challenged by those that point out his injury-riddled 2011 campaign, but the season is a clear statistical outlier when you notice his batting averages of .320, .307, .307, and .301 in all other seasons with more than 200 plate appearances. He has also added four straight seasons of double digit home runs, despite hitting just 10 last season.
Prado has also straightened out his walk-to-strikeout ratio to a near even rate, which should allow him to get on base at high rates at the top of an offense that is expected to perform at a high level. In Prado, you are looking at a player that should be able to produce double digit home runs, double digit steals, a .300 average, a lot of runs, and a respectable amount of RBI for a top of the order hitter. Being able to contribute at least somewhat in all five categories while also being eligible at outfield, third base, shortstop, and second base (depending on the league, he played 10 games at each of the positions) makes Prado an extremely undervalued fantasy option. Three of those four positions are rather scarce, and he is good enough to be a player who won’t hurt your team’s production if you have to play him in the outfield either.
The one question will be whether speed remains a big part of his game. He set career highs in steals with 17 and triples with six, but has never been a player noted for his swift feet prior to last season. In fact, stealing bases was something he really struggled at before last year, as he posted as many seasons with more stolen bases than times caught as the inverse. But when following Prado throughout his career, it is clear that he is the type of player who focuses on getting better at certain aspects of the sport. Last year, becoming a better defender and taking advantage of extra bases were clearly his focuses. As a player who consistently learns and becomes a quality defender at new positions, it should not come of that much of a surprise that he would look to and succeed at improving at other aspects of his game. Maybe he steals a few fewer bases and gets caught a few more times, but I would be surprised with fewer than 10 stolen bases. That is not enough to make him a “speed demon,” but coupled with the rest of his game being respectable, he certainly will be able to add value to teams on a daily basis. Consistency and flexibility are two important aspects of the fantasy world, and you know what you will get with Martin Prado on an annual basis and you can essentially use him as the Braves do, wherever he is needed most.
David Murphy hit over .300 with double-digit power and steals last season. He’s in line for more playing time with Josh Hamilton gone. He just turned 31, so age is only a slight concern.
But David Murphy wasn’t drafted in the RotoGraphs Mock Draft. Maybe he should have been.
Over the next three weeks, I am putting together three articles to help both existing and new ottoneu players (including one for those still thinking about ottoneu). Next week we’ll look at how the three scoring systems offered by ottoneu compare, and the week after I’ll offer some guidance for those venturing into their first ottoneu experience. In the midst of all that, expect to see a detailed breakdown of how I create projected auction values for my ottoneu leagues.
But this week, with just nine days until rosters freeze, I am going to focus on those of you in your second or third year in ottoneu, or those of you taking over abandoned teams. In many ways, the next nine days are some of the most important to your season – moves you make now can put you on the path to a title or start a downward spiral.
As I stated last week, I will be changing the layout of my posts until the start of the season to give you more practical fantasy advice for the upcoming season. I won’t be talking about draft position, ottoneu, or auction prices, rather I’ll breakdown which prospects can help your team in each of the traditional fantasy categories. Each week I’ll give you my No Doubt, Overrated, and Sleeper picks. Read the rest of this entry »
