The Indians finalized their two-year, $12 million deal with David Murphy today. He’s projected for two wins by Steamer, and in the past that front office has pegged the cost per win much higher than we’ve had it on this site. So it’s probably a good deal if he can manage to put up two wins in those two years combined. But should fantasy owners care?
It seems like it was just yesterday that Eno Sarris was discussing the fantasy fallout of Prince Fielder’s move from Milwaukee to Detroit. As part of that piece, we took a look at the park factors not only of Prince’s new and old home stadiums, but of his new road destinations, as well.
So why not go at it again? This time the move isn’t as drastic – what with the not changing leagues and all – but the reputations of the parks involved has led to some speculation that Fielder should be flying up draft boards this Spring. But the data doesn’t always agree with the reputation.
A fluke might not be repeatable, but it is nevertheless something that happened. And something that happened in 2013 was Raul Ibanez was pretty good — which not many people outside of the Ibanez family and maybe Jack Zduriencek thought was likely. It was such an oddity, it generated a post titled, “I’m Old and I’m Swinging For the Fences” which should win some kind of post header award in my opinion.
Over the last three years, Adam Jones has hit between .280 and .287, launched between 25 and 33 homers, and stolen between 12 and 16 bases. Considering the way team performances vary from year to year, the fact that he’s managed between 152 and 208 runs and RBI combined is pretty steady as well. But before we pencil him in for more of the same, we should probably give him a workup. After all, he’ll turn 29 next season, and age comes for us all.
Everyone trying to predict this game gets things wrong. Take for example, me. I took a look at Shin-Soo Choo on the Indians and thought he’d be a perfect guy to sell high before his eroding athleticism became more obvious. Ooops? Let’s check more closely, though. We do know he went from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s one, and that can go a long way towards covering up a continued decline.
So let’s dissect this bounceback. Stephen Drew put up a 109 wRC+, nearly 30 points higher than his 2012 mark. We can’t point to improved strikeout or walk rates; in fact, both of those trended slightly worse in 2013 (although the walk rate is well up over his career average).
Drew’s BABIP was the most significant contributor to the climb in batting average, jumping from .275 last season to .320 this. There’s no obvious marker in his batted ball profile that could have contributed to this; his line drives were down a smidge but the rest of his batted ball profile has been remarkably consistent across the board. Drew’s well-above average LD% contributes to high xBABIPs, with his last two years coming in at .341 and .317. Even not considered the fleetest of foot, there seems reason to believe his average should more closely resemble 2013 than 2012, at least in the near future.
Every player is risky, and paranoia usually serves you well in fantasy. So even when you look at a player like Ian Desmond, who has gone 20/20 with a .280+ batting average in two straight years at a tough position — it’s worth checking under the hood and identifying where the 27-year-old could regress in the coming season.
Pablo Sandoval’s weight has been mentioned plenty of times before. Often the reason is a potential move to first base, given the need for some athleticism at third base. But then there are all the injuries that he’s suffered over the first five years of his career. It’s fair to wonder if the weight affects him most when it comes to staying healthy. Is that fair? What do the careers of other bigger position players tell us?
Down in Arizona to get one last fix of baseball before the lean winter months, I had the distinct pleasure of getting to watch Alex Meyer pitch three innings of shutout ball against the AFL East All-Star lineup — while sitting behind two excellent young fellows from Trackman baseball. There’s very little PITCHf/x in the minor leagues, and usually competitor Trackman’s data is proprietary and under lock and key. But in Arizona, the company enjoys its best chance to openly market their radar-based approach to pitch tracking, and the numbers their system provided were an interesting guide to a dominant outing by the Twins’ best pitching prospect.
With two 30-30 seasons in his resume, there was a time when it was quite fashionable to select Ian Kinsler as early as the first round in fantasy drafts. 2012 was a down year by his standards, but the lure of a rebound season still kept his price tag hefty with a $20-plus average auction cost and an average draft position in the 20’s. It suffices to say that he lacked a return on investment in 2013.
