I asked twitter what I should write about, and the requests were too many to get to. So I thought I’d get to as many as I could, and the only grouping I could find was starting pitching. So let’s take a look at these guys without spending three thousand words on them! I’ll try to be succinct.
(Okay, I lied, I picked the pitchers because I love pitchers.)
Recently the Braves changed their lineup dramatically for the first time this season. They have altered a few different pieces here and there at times throughout the first few months, but now they have moved Jason Heyward to the fifth spot, Justin Upton to sixth, and inserted Tommy La Stella in the leadoff spot.
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We do have leaderboards for this sort of thing, but the problem is that if you’re looking at horizontal movement, PITCHf/x data for lefties and righties is very different. For example, the average four-seam fastball for a lefty goes 91 mph, but breaks +5.5 inches. The average four-seam fastball for a righty goes 92.2 mph and breaks -4.2 inches. So if you sorted one way or the other for horizontal fastball movement, you would just be getting the best lefties and righties.
So I did the work for you. Voila, the straightest fastballs in the game. It may be the least important facet of a fastball, behind location and velocity, but it’s still a facet we don’t talk about much.
A couple months ago, I told you it was too early to worry about Justin Masterson. Well, we are more than half-way through June now and if I wasn’t worried before, I am now.
Dropping velocity, a lot of walks, and some bad batted ball luck were major factors in Masterson’s slow start, and all three continue to be an issue. But the walks are the real cause for concern.
Whoo boy. What a turd of a position.
Sure, in the shallower leagues, you’re okay. There’s about 5-10 shortstops that I want to have and another seven or so that look okay to me. If you waited and picked Dee Gordon (or got him off waivers), congrats. Alexei Ramirez was another great late pick. Jimmy Rollins is resurgent. It looks like a good Alcides Escobar year — not a bad one at least.
The conventional wisdom says that your starting pitcher needs three pitches. Fastball, breaking ball, change-up is best, but three pitches by hook or crook. If they don’t, they’ll have platoon splits and a tough time getting through the lineup. That’s largely true, of course, but there are always exceptions.
Let’s see what we can learn from the exceptions.
The Braves finally pulled the plug on Dan Uggla for good, it seems. Tommy La Stella was promoted to help a bottom-three situation, and now fantasy owners want to know how much he can help their teams. Only fair.
Josh Beckett has burned me a few times this year. Or better put, Josh Beckett has burned me by pitching well against stacks I have chosen against him. Much of the attention pitchers have received this year have been due to injuries (Jose Fernandez) or breakouts (Masahiro Tanaka). Beckett’s resurgence hasn’t garnered much attention, if any.
| Year | IP | K% | BB% | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 193 | 22.8% | 6.8% | 2.89 | 3.57 |
| 2012 | 170.1 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 4.65 | 4.15 |
| 2013 | 43.1 | 21.0% | 7.7% | 5.19 | 4.66 |
| 2014 | 41.2 | 23.8% | 8.9% | 2.38 | 3.94 |
Beckett’s besting his career strikeout pace of 22.2%, and walking a few more batters than he has during his career – 7.3% career BB%. His peripherals aren’t far off from his 2011 campaign, in which he was worth roughly four wins. He’s also generating his highest ground ball rate since 2009. Unfortunately, that’s where good news stops. His hr/fb rate is higher than his career average. His babip allowed is .064 below his career average. And finally, his LOB% is a marvelous 84.6%. From 2011 until 2013 Beckett struggled out of the stretch. He allowed a.340 wOBA with men on base. In 2014, however, he’s allowed a .201 wOBA in such situations; a number undoubtedly aided by a .132 babip – .292 is league average in those instances, so far.
Beckett might have made legitimate improvements. His velocity is still intact. So are his above league average homer issues, though. Beckett’s pitched pretty well this season, but it probably won’t last, at least in this magnitude. It’d be pretty cool if he kept it going a little while longer, though.
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It’s very sad. The man that threw the most curveballs in baseball (with the highest whiff rate among curveballs) is now hurt. It’s almost like there’s been work on the subject.
But Jose Fernandez is gone. You can’t have him back, not this year. So it’s time to hit the wire. And let’s use some whiff rates to see what we can find. I’ll just look for surprising league-leading pitches in each category. One standout pitch might be enough for you right now, especially if it comes with some other surprises once we jump in.
The first pitch is a complicated moment in any at-bat. The strike rate on the pitch is rising as pitchers pump it in the zone to get their advantage. And yet the swing rate on the pitch is diving as hitters try to be more patient in an era in which on-base percentage is praised. There’s evidence that this new approach isn’t any worse than the old-school approach — but that’s for baseball as a whole.
There have to be batters that are taking or swinging too much on the first pitch of an at-bat. If you’re a selective hitter, it makes sense to take. You’ll get a lot of 1-0 counts, and you’ll have a great sense of what’s a hittable pitch. If you’re more of an aggressive hitter that reaches often, maybe it makes sense to swing more often at strike one. You’ll avoid more 0-1 counts, and you’ll put some nice pitches into play.
