We’re gathered here today to witness the union of my myriad rosters into one spreadsheet. I’ve included only my eight most “normal” leagues, which range in depth from a 12-team, three outfielder format to an ottoneu roster. Half of these leagues were auctions. Four were keeper leagues. Two are H2H. Several have quirky rules that allow me stash certain players.
We read a lot about prospects and rookies but the coverage tends to fall off the map after the conclusion of a player’s freshman season. This ongoing series will chronicle the successes and failures of the sophomore class to help determine whose rookie season was a harbinger of even better things to come, and whose first foray into The Show was actually blanketed in smoke and mirrors.
Jesse Hahn, RHP, Athletics: The A’s acquisition of Hahn was my favorite of their off-season moves. He has the stuff to be a No. 2 hurler but he’s been held back by injuries that are somewhat worrying. The move from San Diego to Oakland does not hurt his value whatsoever given the similarly-friendly confines of the home parks. He could be the second most valuable arm in the rotation behind Sonny Gray in 2015. Hahn, 25, has 200+ strikeout stuff if his body holds up.
“Don’t read into Spring Training stats” is a good surface level mantra to hold on to. The competition is uneven, the results don’t matter, and the players are all working on things in preparation for the regular season. To some extent, it’s like looking at September numbers on a non-contending team: those are very different from May numbers.
Even the benefits of a huge surge in results is only slightly predictive. There’s the study from John Dewan about a huge slugging percentage breakout in the spring, but recently work by Ben Lindbergh and Jon Shepherd poked some holes in the theory.
If you look at when stats stabilize, however, there are a few stats worth checking out. We know from Jeff Zimmerman that fastball velocity stabilizes very quickly, and so it’s worth reading his MASH articles to find the most recent gun readings on pitchers.
And we know that strikeouts stabilize quickly — 100 plate appearances for batters, 126 batters faced for pitchers. A spring is something like a half of a September, so it doesn’t get to those thresholds, but the evidence is there that strikeouts become meaningful quicker than most stats, and so therefore spring strikeouts may be worth keeping an eye on.
Last week, I reviewed my NFBC Draft Champions League results. I think some of my speculative saves (Joel Peralta early on; Adam Ottavino later on) could come to fruition, and I am pretty bullish on the depth of my rotation. I have a sundry of sleepers that could provide supplemental value: Daniel Norris, Randall Delgado, Jaime Garcia, Rafael Montero, Trevor Cahill and Robbie Erlin.
With that said, some of the feedback was helpful. I agree that based on my closing situation (among other things), I can’t possibly compete for the grand prize unless I get very lucky. I also do not have enough sure-thing starters to punt saves altogether to at least ensure a league win.
I don’t agree with a lack of depth on offense. I have CI/OF flexibility and a sundry of power (Justin Smoak, Travis Snider) and speed (Billy Burns, Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor) on the bench. My second catching slot is in question, but Caleb Joseph could provide some surprise value until Matt Wieters returns. I like Andrew Susac, but I need to hope for a Buster Posey or Brandon Belt injury.
Whether it’s daily fantasy or dynasty, being able to evaluate a pitcher in a small sample can separate the top from the bottom of your league table. Results — particularly balls in play, but really any results that depend on the outcome of a plate appearance — can only go so far. Per-pitch metrics help, since there are four pitches per plate appearance on average, but if you’re talking results, you’re still cutting your sample into those moments when a player swung or put the ball in play.
And then there’s movement and velocity. We know, for example, that it takes only three starts to reliably predict fastball velocity the rest of the way, and that one start actually gives us a good idea. So maybe movements and velocities can help us evaluate young starters quickly.
You have seen some Tout and LABR reviews for the past few weeks here on the site. We all can’t be so lucky to participate in such glorious leagues. On the other hand, we can all take part in NFBC leagues.
NFBC’s $150 NFBC Draft Champions leagues are a perfect format for me:
a) I have impending time constraints including my first child in June!
b) I didn’t have to ask my wife for permission to use our mutual bank account.
c) I was able to dwell on each pick if/when needed (8 hours to make a pick) and
d) There are no trades or free agent pick-ups once the draft is complete. This feature is my wife’s favorite, and I appreciate the preventative collusion measures. I am also much more interested in draft strategy and player projections/rankings/draft position than I am jumping on small sample sizes in-season.
Depth chart discussions are in full swing. We are analyzing each team’s infield, outfield, rotation and bullpen components in separate segments. Catch up on the discussions here.
A couple of weeks ago, I highlighted the 10 most “MLB-ready” AAA outfield prospects based on a variety of requirements about which you can read if you click through. The idea was to ignore any kind of prospect labels and strictly let the statistics and hitters’ ages tell the story.
The list is by no means definitive, but Pirates outfielders assumed four of the 10 spots. Their projections weren’t necessarily rosy — they may all end up being bench pieces at best, for all we know — but it doesn’t negate the fact that they may be ready to positively contribute at the Major League level in some capacity. Toss into the mix top prospect Austin Meadows farther down the organizational ladder and it becomes clear that Pittsburgh has enough outfield depth throughout its system to support an ensemble cast that should be together for years to come.
Left Field: Starling Marte (Age 26)
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It’s time for bold predictions again. Check out the Bold Predictions tab to see the rest of the staff go loony. I was told I wasn’t specific enough or bold enough last year (when I went four for ten, a Williams-esque personal best), so this year’s bold predictions are all specific predictions about specific players!
Enjoy!
1) Anthony DeSclafani will have a season that trumps his minor league strikeout numbers.
He’s secured a rotation spot, and that was step one. With Jason Marquis in the rotation, it’s also safe to say he’s not the number five guy that gets bounced when Homer Bailey is back. The team traded for him, and need him as a starter, so they believe he’s more than a one-pitch pitcher with command, a moniker that’s been hung on him by smarter men then me. But what I see is enough gas (92.5, or a mph more than your average righty), command (2.0 walks per nine in the minors), and arsenal to be a really good pitcher.
Average Draft Position or ADP is very valuable. I weighed NFBC’s ADP into my personal NFBC Draft Champion rankings equally to my position-adjusted composite projections (Baseball HQ combined with RotoChamp composites (Steamer, ZIP’s, etc.)) and the results were great. I used this, our pitcher arsenal scores and these hitter analytics as my three main draft tools.
I wanted to take evaluating draft position one step further. I want to understand how consistent each player is drafted near their ADP.
Howard Bender, who manages Mock Draft Army provided me with the raw draft results of 19 expert drafts (NFBC format: 2c-1b-2b-3b-ss-ci-mi-5of-9p). It’s not the largest sample, but they are expert drafts, and the drafts that I have taken part in definitely provided great references.
The Approach:
In our ceaseless pursuit of Fantasy bargains, we now consider the Cincinnati Reds—or, as one of us will go to his grave calling them, the Cincinnati Redlegs. (This was actually the team’s name from 1954 through 1959, presumably in order to avoid confusion with the crosstown Cincinnati Communists of the Internationale League.)
But we divagate. The Reds in 2014 lost 38 one-run games, the most in a single season by any team in this century. Their record in such games was 22-38, which is likewise abysmal. You’d figure that such a team would have a weak bullpen, and the Reds sure did. They had the fourth worst bullpen ERA in the majors, and no other team was even close to the bullpen’s 11-31 won-lost record. You might also expect that such a team would have a weak closer, but the Reds didn’t. In fact, as you no doubt know, Aroldis Chapman is perhaps the best closer in baseball, and finished second last season in percentage of saves converted. Moreover, Jonathan Broxton, his replacement for the first month or so of the season, converted five out of his six save opportunities.
No, it was the rest of the bullpen—including Broxton, once he became the set-up guy after Chapman returned—that sank the Reds. Chapman, you see, was used almost exclusively (1) in the 9th inning with (2) either the score tied or the Reds holding a narrow lead. If the Reds, courtesy of the bullpen, couldn’t get to the 9th, Chapman wasn’t a factor. Likewise Broxton, in his capacity as closer. Read the rest of this entry »
