Archive for Uncategorized

The summer of 2015 is finally upon us and so too is the beginning of the trading (or perhaps more aptly known as the rumoring) frenzy that comes to Major League Baseball every July. Below are four names you could see change hands during some of the bigger deals.

J.T. Chargois, RHP, Twins: Minnesota likely doesn’t have much spare change lying around but they could probably afford a half-year rental or two given their early successes. Chargois (whom my auto-correct hates) isn’t on many people’s radar right now after throwing just 39.2 innings in parts of four seasons due to injury but he’s a bullpen arm that’s hit triple-digits on the radar gun in the past. So far this year, after missing the previous two seasons, he’s pitched in both High-A and Double-A with 27 strikeouts in 23.2 innings. He possesses the ceiling of a high-leverage reliever and now might be the best time for the Twins to try and squeeze some value out of him before something else goes clink-clang-boom in his shoulder or elbow. [Value Up]

Read the rest of this entry »

For those of you who have read my many snake draft and auction recaps, you may recall that I rely on the same strategy season after season. No matter the format, I load up on hitting and pay significantly less for pitching than my competition. There’s a reason I continue to follow this strategy — it works. For me, at least. I have been quite successful following the plan, and when I don’t finish in the money, it’s typically because my offense was filled with busts, rather than my pitching performing like the weak staff I presumably paid for. Unfortunately, the strategy may finally have to be tweaked, as our competitors have official smartened up.

Read the rest of this entry »

Disappointment is entirely about expectations. Hence the hedging and inclusion of “potential” in the headline. If you weren’t expecting Michael Brantley to have a 20-20 season, he is not disappointing you at all right now. If you were, he has been kind of a bummer. I’m taking a closer look at four players ranked in the preseason RotoGraphs top 35 who may have not performed quite as expected.

I’ve addressed Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Gomez and Troy Tulowitzki in other articles, so I won’t revisit those potential disappointments. Since we’re already working with smaller-than-ideal samples, I’m not going to include anyone who’s played fewer than 40 games (Anthony Rendon, Yasiel Puig and Jacoby Ellsbury). Statistics through June 24.

Read the rest of this entry »

Among the peccadilloes and eccentricities that we’re willing to confess to in this forum, perhaps the most embarrassing is our continuing thirst for 80’s synthpop, which we were too old for even the first time around. The sillier and stupider the better, as far as we’re concerned: Human League, Soft Cell, Orchestral Maneuvers in the Dark, Human League, A Flock of Seagulls, Men Without Hats, and of course post-Vince Clarke Depeche Mode, goth-synth titans so dumb they make Ozzy Osbourne look like Harold Bloom. (Come to think of it: Have you seen Oz lately? Even with the makeover, he does look kind of like Harold Bloom, who’s looked pretty much the same for the last 40 years.)

Read the rest of this entry »

There is no ideal batted ball mix for all players. Run the numbers, and there’s no strong correlation between things like pull, opposite-field, ground-ball and fly-ball rates and weighted on base average or similar production stats.

That said, there is at least one “bad” batted ball type, the infield fly. And there is a decent relationship between fly balls and power, and between oppo% and BABIP. So you can feel your way to the ‘right’ mix for each player type.

And the players do themselves, as well. In general, they hit fewer ground balls as they approach their peak, which is a way for them to increase their power. And there are plenty of anecdotes from hitters about either leveling their swing plane to get on base more, or trying to hit more fly balls in order to hit for more power.

It’s clear that batted ball mix is a source for improvement in younger hitters, and that — if you’re careful — you can use it to try and figure out the future for a young player. So let’s turn this spotlight on two very different players, Manny Machado and Billy Burns, to see what we can learn.

Read the rest of this entry »

Spoiler Alert: We’re going to tell you two sentences from now where we come down on the subject of Brad Miller, enigmatic Mariner. Jump to the next paragraph if you don’t want to know until the end of the article. Spoiler: We have no idea. The point of this piece is to call your attention to what we discovered when we started investigating this subject: we found that new, exemplary, state-of-the art, microscopic, persuasive explorations of Miller and his stats, in sickness and in health, by undisputed Fantasy All-Stars, wind up in opposite corners, and can’t be reconciled. Read the rest of this entry »

Where have Collin McHugh’s strikeouts gone? Only Shane Greene, Jesse Hahn, Alex Wood, and Phil Hughes have seen a sharper decrease in strikeout rate since last year without a change in role. We’ve covered most of those guys in one way or another over the last few weeks at The Change. Now it’s time to focus on McHugh, to see what we can learn.

McHugh is still top 30 in swinging strike rate. He’s 65th in strikeout rate. Something is amiss here.

Read the rest of this entry »

A few days ago the Braves entered extra innings with only one reliever available. As the game could have very well continued far past that point, the Braves were bracing themselves for using Alex Wood on his throw day and pushing his start back. They were considering bringing up Matt Wisler, if they were forced to use Wood that afternoon, but the Braves lost the following inning and the situation was avoided. What this does show is that the Braves are close to bringing Wisler up, and I expect him to be in Atlanta sooner rather than later as Mike Foltynewicz has struggled of late as well.
Read the rest of this entry »

Continuing with my line of Sam Hill pieces, Garrett Richards has frustrated owners who waited out his early season recovery from knee surgery. After posting a dazzling 2.61 ERA (2.60 FIP), 1.04 WHIP, and 24.2% strikeout rate over 168.2 innings in 2014, he’s been on again, off again and one absolute drubbing in 2015. Right now, his line of 4.14 ERA (4.06 FIP), 1.31 WHIP, and 19% strikeout rate isn’t terrible, but he’s pretty much standing at the cliff in terms of trade value. One more ugly start and his name recognition will be overshadowed by miserable counting stats. So the question is, should you hold or target him?

Read the rest of this entry »

Eos is extending her rosy middle finger in our direction, beckoning us to another day of Fantasy futility. Our weekly Fangraphs deadline is here, and once again, we have spent a restless night pondering, weak and weary, the question preoccupying all of Fantasyland: what’s going on with Melky Cabrera?

Since you’ve found your way here, you probably already know all there is to know about Melky, but let’s do a quick review, just for giggles. He turns 31 in August. He had some success early in his career with the Yankees, had an excellent 2011 with the Royals and an even better 2012 with the Giants, producing the highest batting average in MLB. He’d have won the official batting title, but MLB had other ideas after Melky was caught enjoying a mild stimulant composed of arrowroot, cyclopropane, and organic library paste.

He served a suspension, spent much of 2013 on the DL, then came back strong with Toronto last season (.301/.351/.458). He signed a big three-year contract with the White Sox during the off-season, and there was a broad consensus among forecasters about what would happen during 2015: Mild regression to the mean, with a slash line of roughly .290/.340/.440, a dozen or so home runs, about 75 runs scored, and maybe 65 RBIs.

In other words, a player of some Fantasy value, and he went for $10 in the Tout Wars mixed auction (same price as Joc Pederson!) and in the 12th round of the Tout Wars mixed draft. We ourselves got him in the 11th round of our NFBC draft, which was about his average draft position in the NFBC. Read the rest of this entry »