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A late evening edition of the scrap heap all stars, featuring one arm and one bat…

Gio Gonzalez | SP | Athletics | 28% owned

The curveball extraordinaire has developed into a rock solid workhorse for the A’s, posting a 4.34 xFIP even though his strikeout rate has dipped below one per inning for the first time in his (relatively short) big league career. (R) ZiPS isn’t very optimistic because they expect his walk rate and BABIP to climb in the second half. I’m a fan because Gonzalez misses bats with his curve and his velocity is at an all-time high. Gio’s final two starts before the break come on the road in Cleveland and at home against the Yankees.

Andres Torres | OF | Giants | 10 %

If you can quietly stand on 2.8 WAR on July 1st, Torres is doing it. The 32-year-old switch hitting outfielder has posted a strong .272/.371/.443 triple-slash line with 35 runs scored and 14 steals, setting the table atop the Giants’ lineup. (R) ZiPS predicts a crash back to Earth (.334 wOBA) mostly because his previous big league exploits have been uninspiring. As long as he’s producing at his current levels, he’ll have value in basically all leagues and is worth a spot on your roster.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Russell Branyan – Seattle Mariners (owned in 7% of Yahoo! leagues)

Branyan returns to the place where he enjoyed the most success in his MLB career, having hit 31 HR for the Mariners last year. Seattle was receiving such poor production from its first basemen that they had played Josh Wilson, a shortstop, there for a few games before re-acquiring Branyan. His HR/FB rate is down from a year ago, but still a solid 17.5 percent. Any club looking for power should look in Branyan’s direction.

Seth Smith – Colorado Rockies (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

He may only be a platoon player, but Smith crushes RHP. He has a .289/.353/.572 line against righties in 170 PA. Smith has 10 HR in 181 ABs. His 13.9 HR/FB rate is right in line with what he’s done the past two seasons but he is hitting more fly balls. Smith’s FB% is at 45.9%, up from 41.6 a year ago and 34.1 percent in his rookie season. It is amazing he is available in most leagues. Do not be scared by his platoon-status. Even if you play in a league with weekly transactions, he should be a valuable player even if he only plays 4-5 times a week.

Jose Tabata – Pittsburgh Pirates (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

We have heard about the former Yankees prospect for a long time, but he is still just 21-years old. Tabata has been installed as the Pirates’ leadoff hitter and he should have an opportunity to pick up a bunch of SB. He has been successful on all four of his steal attempts in his first 16 games. While owners should believe in his speed, do not expect much power from Tabata this season. So, the make or break for him in 2010 will be his AVG. So far, he has a .258 AVG on a .291 BABIP. While it would be nice to see more production in the AVG category, he has an acceptable walk rate (8.3%) so he is still setting himself up for steal chances. There is no (R) ZiPS to compare but if Tabata can stay healthy he has a good shot to clear 20 SB the rest of the way.

Two players with low ownership rates that might want to consider picking up…

Jason Hammel | Rockies | SP | 24% owned

Hammel has been quite the find for the Rockies, who acquired him last year from the Rays and watched him post a 3.81 xFIP in 176.1 IP. After a rocky (pun intended) start to the 2010 season, Hammel settled down this month and has been downright fantastic. He hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, and ever since a May 21st drubbing at the hands of the Royals, Hammel has a 0.78 ERA and has held opponents to a .244/.304/.283 batting line against. His strikeout rate has steadily climbed to 6.99 K/9 over the last few years, and (R) ZiPS sees a 4.39 ERA and 6.32 K/9 the rest of the way.

You probably don’t have time to grab him into time for tonight’s start against the Red Sox, though you’d probably want to sit him anyway. He’s lined up to finish off the first half with assignments in San Diego, at home against the Giants, and then at home against the Padres. Yes please.

Justin Smoak | Rangers | 1B | 15%

Brian advised you to grab Smoak at the end of last month, noting that his BABIP and LD% indicated a surge was coming. Well, Brian absolutely nailed it, as Smoak has hit to the tune of a .400 wOBA this month, driving in 20 runs and scoring 14 more as part of Texas’ June assault on pitching. His BABIP (.254) is still in the process of correcting itself, so there’s hope that this torrid stretch will continue through the break.

Luckily there’s still a good chance that Smoak is available in your league, and he’ll likely settle in with a .280 AVG and a .160 ISO or so the rest of the way.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here at RotoGraphs, we don’t always give too much of our time to OBP leagues. Sad, but true. More and more leagues are converting to OBP, or adding OPS, so it’s about time that we made time for them.

Some players have much more value in OBP leagues, and some have much less. The easiest (or is it the laziest?) way to determine this, is to simply subtract a players’ batting average from their OBP. Let’s take a look, shall we?

The Studs
1. Chipper Jones (.141)
2. Josh Willingham (.139)
3. Prince Fielder (.137)
4. Jose Bautista (.127)
5. Kevin Youkilis (.123)

While Bautista has much more value in OBP leagues, his OBP is only around 10 points above average. Chipper, however, is amazing. He is waiver wire fodder in standard leagues, but he needs to be owned in every OBP league. His injury problems mean you’ll need a reliable backup, but when he plays, he reaches base. Willingham is owned in 65% of Yahoo! leagues, so he won’t be widely available. Even though Youkilis and Fielder are big time fantasy players, Bautista and Chipper are nice values in OBP leagues.

The Middle Class
83. Alfonso Soriano (.072)
84. Shane Victorino (.072)
85. Alex Rodriguez (.072)
86. Hideki Matsui (.071)
87. Denard Span (.071)

A-Rod in the middle of the road? Gasp.

The Duds
173. Pedro Feliz (.025)
172. Julio Borbon (.025)
171. Alberto Callaspo (.026)
170. Carlos Gonzalez (.027)
169. Cristian Guzman (.027)

Feliz should never be owned, period, and hasn’t been worth your time since 2007. Borbon is having a nice season, especially after the way he started off, but his value needs to be altered in OBP leagues. The speed is nice, but a .319 OBP isn’t going to cut it. Callaspo has always had a decent walk rate in Kansas City, so his struggles to take a free pass are strange. Guzman’s Nationals career has always been the definition of “empty average”, so this is not a shock. Gonzalez’s walk rate was decent last year, but he’s swinging more while making less contact. Borbon and CarGo both have some value due to their counting stats, but don’t get too excited.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Kevin Frandsen, Anaheim Angels (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

With injuries to Erick Aybar and Maicer Izturis, Frandsen is getting a shot at regular playing time at third base. He may not have a starting job for long but Frandsen has a nice .352 AVG (thanks to a .373 BABIP) and if you are weak at the position, there is no reason not to ride the hot streak, even if it’s just for two weeks. Depending on your league’s eligibility rules, Frandsen may qualify at any of three infield positions.

J.J. Putz, Chicago White Sox (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Bobby Jenks having pitched on back-to-back nights, the White Sox opted for Putz for the save opportunity over Matt Thornton. While it is unlikely that Putz will get many more save opportunities this year, he has been pitching very well in his setup role. Putz has a 2.19 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and an 11.68 K/9. Even in leagues that do not value holds, those are numbers that would help any staff.

Dayan Viciedo, Chicago White Sox (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

A disappointment last year in his first season in this country, the Cuban defector was enjoying a big season in Triple-A before getting the call to Chicago. Viciedo was batting .290 with 14 HR and 34 RBIs in 238 at-bats for Charlotte. He played mostly first base this year in the minors, perhaps in preparation for replacing Paul Konerko down the road. But he was back at third base for his major league debut. Viciedo may be in a platoon situation, as his first start came against LHP John Lannan after he sat out versus Stephen Strasburg. But there is also the chance he may play full time at the position while Mark Teahen is out with a finger injury. Viciedo is worth a flyer based on his power potential.

Before I set off on my move to California and give my teary-eyed goodbyes to New York City, there’s time for one last waiver wire piece. I’ll have to take a break for the next week as things are about to get really hectic, but as I’ve been wont to do, I’ll focus on some deep league options. Because if you’re here, you’re probably playing in at least one league where you’ll consider these guys, warts and all.

Jeff Francis, Colorado (13% owned)
I’ll have to admit I was skeptical when Brian Joura touted Francis as a $1 option in March. I remained skeptical when he showed a sub-five strikeout rate after taking a year off for surgery. In my heart of hearts, I still am skeptical. But here’s the thing, Francis is doing some things right. He’s not getting that lucky, as his BABIP (.282) and strand rate (71.1%) are fine. He’s just not walking people (1.88 BB/9), and keeping the ball on the ground at a career-high rate (50.8%). The pitching mix has changed a bit, as he’s throwing his bad fastball (-39.9 runs career) the least he has in his career (57.4% this year, 62.6% career), and that has to count as a positive. Of course, the bee in the bonnet is his career-best home run rate (0.47 HR/9), which is built on the back of his HR/FB number (4.8%) that xFIP (obviously) doesn’t think is sustainable (4.26 xFIP, compared to his 3.44 FIP). Here’s the thing, though. Not only is that xFIP tied for his career-best, but you could easily double Francis’ home runs to date (two) and he’d still be having a great year. Francis is a decent option for your bench in most formats, although I’d retain my skepticism in mixed leagues.

Rick Ankiel, Kansas City (4% owned)
If you’re in a deep league with five outfield spots, you might just own someone worse than Rick Ankiel. As with many deep league waiver candidates, there are plenty of reasons not to like the converted pitcher who is roaming the outfield in powder blue. His major fault has even been magnified this year, as his poor strikeout rate (26.3% career) has crossed over into terrible territory this year (35.5%). No matter, you don’t own him for his batting average, you own him for his power, like (ostensibly) the Royals do. The best news about Ankiel is that it looks like that power is back (.210 ISO) after a down year last year (.156 ISO). He also has had a decent rehab assignment, hitting for both power and average in Triple-A Omaha. If he comes back and stays healthy, he could put in more at-bats than ZiPs RoS predicts (232) considering the season is not yet at the halfway-point. In deep leagues with divided outfielders, getting 15 or so home runs from your CF might be worth taking the batting average hurt. The power should be there, and therefore the value.

More than a third of the way through the season, let’s see what the list looks like now. To-date wOBA and ZiPs Ros wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
1. Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.371 wOBA, .401 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
2. Robinson Cano, New York AL (.439 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
3. Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.354 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
4. Ian Kinsler, Texas (.324 wOBA, .363 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

When you’ve been excellent as long as Chase Utley has, you buy yourself more than a couple months of subpar performance before you give up the top spot (or: if this is what a slump looks like, go get me some pomeade). Ian Kinsler doesn’t quite have the same pedigree, has always had the injuries to contend with, and just has to fall behind Dustin Pedroia and Robinson Cano because of the AL East second basemens’ beastly seasons to date. If you’re giving up on Utley now, please contact me with trade offers because I’m buying.

Still Strong:
5. Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.373 wOBA, .352 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.368 wOBA, .362 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
7. Dan Uggla, Florida (.370 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Had to split tiers here because some of the medium-style second basemen are having worse-than-mediocre seasons. it’s a tough position when you can only really be satisfied with the top seven. Of course, the argument will be made for some of the guys below, but these seven are the only guys that combine track record with help in the counting stats and don’t hurt too bad in any one place. The good news for Ben Zobrist fans is that even with less power, he’s going to be a strong middle infielder going forward.

Could Still be Strong:
8. Chone Figgins, Seattle (.296 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
9. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.346 wOBA, .345 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
10. Ian Stewart, Colorado (.332 wOBA, .344 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
11. Aaron Hill, Toronto (.296 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

These guys are head-scratchers, and there might plenty of moaning about their spots. The thing is, there are glimmers of hope in each case. Chone Figgins is still walking and stealing bases like last year, he’s just striking out a bit much and doesn’t have a nice BABIP like he usually does. His strikeout rate is up almost 5% over his career number and he’s got his second-worst contact rate of his career, but there’s no guarantee that will continue. If he gets hot and ends up with a .280+ average going forward, and finishes like the Dan Uggla of speed at a tough position, he’ll earn this spot. Aaron Hill has a wacky batted ball profile that should get extended coverage soon, but the power is there. If he ends up with Casey McGehee numbers at the end of the year, it’s clear which of the two you want going forward. Rickie Weeks and Ian Stewart will elicit groans from the batting-average lovers, but they do decent work in the counting stats and still could produce mediocre batting averages if they recapture their early-season gains. In a couple weeks, these guys may be re-distributed upwards and downwards (Hill and Stewart, I’m looking in your direction), but I think they merit a little more attention in the meantime.

Flawed but Good:
12. Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.391 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
13. Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.345 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
14. Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.369 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
15. Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.367 wOBA, .341 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .343 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
17. Martin Prado, Atlanta (.369 wOBA, .352 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
18. Alberto Callaspo, Kansas City (.320 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the tier that holds second basemen that fit needs. If you need power, Kelly Johnson, Ty Wigginton, Juan Uribe and McGehee are your men, but all of them but Uribe (!) have already started to taper off and may yet be replaced in this tier. Our skepticism may have been warranted in McGehee’s case. Martin Prado and Placido Polanco will fit the right batting-average starved team better than many teams on the list above them, but neither is a lock to crack as many as 15 home runs, nor do they have speed. None of the bunch really has the upside to be a complete second baseman (except maybe Uribe?!!).

Upside to Join the Top:
19. Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.254 wOBA, .355 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
20. Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.310 wOBA, .329 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
21. Ian Desmond, Washington (.311 wOBA, .324 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
22. Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.362 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
23. Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.321 wOBA, .312 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
24. Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.328 wOBA, .314 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
25. Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.253 wOBA, .328 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
26. Jose Lopez, Seattle (.254 wOBA, .306 ZiPs Ros wOBA)

Brian Roberts continues his long, painful slide and may not be back for another month or two, so it’s hard to place him anywhere but here. Falling along with him are Gordon Beckham and Jose Lopez. When a .597 OPS is ‘picking it up in June,’ it’s hard to be optimistic about Beckham. I still think he’ll get it going, but when is the question, and he’s surely not ownable in the meantime unless you are just stuck with him in a deep league. Repeat that all with a .596 OPS for Lopez, and probably less upside. Ian Desmond and Mike Aviles debut on the list, and have some upside, but Aviles is older than you think, has no power or speed, and Desmond is Kendrick-lite because he has the same lack of counting stats but about half the batting average upside.

An arm and a pair of legs for your fantasy squad…

Trevor Cahill | SP | Athletics | 22% owned

The A’s were dealt a big but not totally unsurprising blow when hip trouble ended Justin Duchscherer’s season, but Cahill has stepped right in and performed admirably. He’s backed off his four-seamer in favor of more two-seamers and curveballs this year, which has helped him generate more ground balls (52.5% in ’10, 47.8% in ’09) and keep lefties in check (4.27 xFIP vs. LHB in ’10, 5.31 in ’09).

The strikeouts aren’t there (5.14 K/9) and xFIP (4.35) and BABIP (.246) suggest Cahill’s 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP are destined for regression, but he should be able to sustain a low-4.00’s ERA over the long haul ((R) ZiPS projects a 4.70 ERA, for what it’s worth). After facing the Cardinals in St. Louis on Sunday, Cahill’s next two outings will come at home against the Pirates and in Cleveland.

Julio Borbon | OF | Rangers | 29%

Borbon’s fantasy value lies in his steals, and after swiping 19 bags in 49 games last year, fantasy owners were drooling at the potential of adding 60+ steals their to ledger. ZiPS and CHONE projected 30 and 34 steals respectively, but if there’s any stat that’s easy to outperform the projections, it’s stolen bases.

Borbon opened the season by hitting just .226/.243/.263 (.229 wOBA by my calculation) with six steals in the team’s first 48 games, but he’s gone off with the bat since late May. In Texas’ last 17 games, Borbon has hit .434/.446/.585 (.452 wOBA), reclaiming an everyday job and serving as the second leadoff man from the nine-spot in the lineup. The steals still aren’t there, just two for six during that span, but those can home at any time and without warning. (R) ZiPS is holding out hope for 22 SB during the rest of the season, on par with guys like Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis, and teammate Elvis Andrus.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

It’s terrible to be inside on a Tuesday in the summer, but here are a couple players that will set your mind right by virtually putting you on the pitch to use a world cup metaphor. Either that, or they will help you win your league.

Aaron Heilman, Arizona (9% owned)
The worst bullpen in the majors is moving their closer out of the role according to AJ Hinch today. This, despite Chad Qualls being the only pitcher in the pen with an xFIP under four. Well, no matter, it looks like the team will be giving interim save chances to Heilman, the only pitcher in the bullpen with an FIP under four. Seriously, this pen is terrible – their league-worst ERA (7.33) is almost two runs worse than second-to-last place (Milwaukee, 5.88). The only other option is possibly Esmerling Vazquez, who has the best strikeout rate in the pen (9.53 K/9) but has a correspondingly high walk rate (4.76 BB/9) and a mediocre-to-poor groundball rate (37.3%). At least he doesn’t have Juan Gutierrez problems with the fly ball (27.5%). Last but not least is newcomer Sam Demel, fresh off his trade from Oakland – but let Joe Pawlikowski and David Golebiewski run you through the Arizona ramifications for the big trade today. It seems Demel has some hurdles to clear first, like actually pitching well in the major leagues. In the meantime, there’s Nick Pieocoro, the Arizona Republic beat writer, saying that AJ Hinch announced that Heilman gets the save chances for now, and my more lengthy run-down over at Bloomberg Sports.

James McDonald, Los Angeles (0% owned)
This is pure speculation that is most useful to those in the deepest of leagues. But let me lay out the reasons McDonald might be up soon. First, Chad Billingsley went on the 15-day DL today with a groin strain. Second, the replacement for the injured Vincente Padilla, Ronald Belisario, has started two games since 2007. Third, Vincente Padilla himself just got rocked in his first rehab start and may miss another start to extended rehab. Fourth, McDonald is on the 40-man roster and is currently starting. Sure, he has a 5.05 ERA and 1.51 WHIP right now, but he’s playing in a tough league and and still has 47 strikeout in 46.1 innings so far this year. The only other pitcher at AAA that’s showing anything is Seth Etherton, who is not on the 40-man roster. Etherton is a name to remember, though, because he does have a non-adjusted 3.25 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 39 strikeouts in 36 innings. I don’t see the team wanting to drop an actual prospect from the 40-man to make room for the 33-year-old journeyman Etherton (6.18 major league career FIP). And for those that think that McDonald has no upside, there are two simple numbers that say he should be given another shot: he owns a 9.1 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 career in the minor leagues. THIS might finally be the year, when they turn to him with no other options and he wasn’t even pitching well in the minors. Stranger things have happened.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Pat Burrell, San Francisco Giants (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

It must be the National League cooking. In his last time in the senior circuit, Burrell put up a 33 HR season with a combined 160 R + RBIs. His time in the American League with the Rays is better off forgotten. But now back in the NL with the Giants, Burrell is batting .375 with 8 R + RBIs in 9 G. He has only hit 1 HR in that span but has earned additional playing time. And if Burrell gets the at-bats the HR will come sooner or later. He only has a 9.1 HR/FB rate this year (similar to last season’s mark) but in his career Burrell has a 15.9 percent rate.

Travis Hafner, Cleveland Indians (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

He has 3 HR in his last 5 G, including Sunday when he turned on a Stephen Strasburg fastball clocked at 99.7 mph. (R) ZiPS projects 10 HR for Hafner in 240 ABs. Both of those totals could be on the low side. He will not give you anything in SB and is unlikely to be helpful at all in AVG. But Hafner has big-time power and could contribute in three categories for the remainder of the season.

Ryan Spilborghs, Colorado Rockies (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

In 9 G this month, Spilborghs is batting .481 with 3 HR. Right now the only thing holding back Spilborghs is playing time and with the Rockies playing an Interleague series on the road against the Twins, Spilborghs should see lots of action in the week ahead. Previously, he has crushed LHP and been poor against RHP. But this season, Spilborghs has a .297 AVG with 4 HR in 64 ABs against righties.