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In lieu of a Waiver Wire piece today, we’ll take a look at the worst bullpen in the major leagues. Because saves are saves, that’s why. And no fantasy owner is looking for All-Stars on the waiver wire (or no sane fantasy owner).

In the second-to-last game before the break, interim manager Kirk Gibson, who has not yet named a closer, was finally faced with a save situation. Who would he pick? Let’s run down the list of his available ‘talent:’

Aaron Heilman
With a strikeout-to-walk ratio that’s been under two for three years in a row, and an FIP that’s been closer to five than four over that same stretch, Heilman has shown us who he is, and it’s not good. It’s hard not to go over the top here, but this is the bare truth: under no circumstances should a decent team consider Heilman as their closer. Of course, this is not a decent team. But even a rebuilding team shouldn’t really consider for their closer position a pitcher with a 4.94 xFIP and 31 years in his rear view mirror. So let’s hope that Gibson had sense enough to move on… which he did, sort of.

Esmerling Vazquez
Vazquez is striking people out (9.79 K/9), and has a decent-enough xFIP (4.11), and is also young (27). But Vazquez also walks too many (4.75 BB/9), has a poor groundball percentage (34.2% this year, 40% career), and isn’t being used in high-leverage situations (0.94 gmLI). Of course, maybe this team isn’t creating enough high-leverage situations, so Vazquez actually looks like a decent option given the putridity of this bullpen. But no, in this game, on July 10th, Vazquez actually recorded his first hold since May 22nd by pitching his seventh-straight scoreless and fifth-straight walk-less appearance in the eighth inning. Vazquez is moving up the depth chart, but he’s not there yet. He’s worth watching, though.

Chad Qualls
The veteran had been pitching better since losing the closer title earlier in the month. That is to say, he had put together a string of four scoreless appearances from June 29th to July 5th. He had only walked two batters since June 9th. He had given up one home run since May. Of course, Qualls also had given up 13 earned runs since the beginning of June, so the record was spotty. Then there’s also the fact that he’s in the last year of his contract on a team going nowhere. There’s no real reason to play him for the future, especially when the luck is really not going his way (.468 BABIP! 50.5% LOB%!). Qualls is still a good pitcher, but does Arizona care?

Sam Demel
Demel is the dark horse. He came over in the Conor Jackson trade, and has been dealing ever since, on a level that seems commensurate with his minor league performances. He was the Triple-A closer in the A’s organization, and had been sporting an 8.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in Sacramento. Well, now in Arizona, he’s got a 8.25 K/9 and 1.50 BB/9 (and therefore a nice 3.03 xFIP). If he can continue exhibiting that control, he could be a great closer, but that’s no given, as you can see from his 4.5 BB/9 in the minors. On the other hand, he’s the only reliever in Arizona with a good groundball rate (52.9%). The problem is, he’s being rewarded with mop-up time in bad games (0.69 gmLI, and his past six appearances have come in games decided by an average of 6.33 runs). This meat is grabbing pine. Maybe Gibson will notice him eventually, but he didn’t on July 10th.

Juan Gutierrez
Not to ruin the ‘surprise,’ but Gutierrez was the winner, after Heilman came on in the top of the ninth and got two outs but left two on for Qualls, who came in and gave up two runs without recording an out. So Gibson actually reached for two guys before he got to Gutierrez, and not without reason. Gutierrez is not striking out a ton of batters this year (7.52 K/9) or career (7.87 K/9), walks a bit too much (3.62 BB/9), and has a major Achilles’ heal when it comes to groundballs (29% this year, 36% career). If the team goes young, Vazquez and Demel are better options. If the team goes with ‘experience,’ Qualls is a better option (if they can see past the bloated ERA).

In the end, the problem is that Gibson has no real solid options to go to. That makes it hard to predict what will happen. If a dynasty-leaguer is looking at the situation, it has to be Demel as the pickup, and he does look like the best pitcher in the pen right now. If a redraft manager thinks that Gibson will be forward-looking and can see past a bad ERA, it’s Qualls. If they want to go by Gibson’s first attempt, it’s Heilman. IF it’s who succeeded last, it’s Gutierrez. Good luck hunting!

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Chris Iannetta – Colorado Rockies (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Iannetta will never have a good AVG and he needs a manager who appreciates his OBP and SLG skills. Jim Tracy is probably not the ideal manager for Iannetta but at least he is back in the majors now and getting some playing time. In his last seven games, Iannetta has 4 HR, 6 R and 8 RBIs. Unfortunately it has taken him 16 days to log those seven games. Due to his poor AVG and sporadic playing time, Iannetta is not an option in all formats. But in any league that starts two catchers, he is worth a flyer.

Vin Mazzaro – Oakland A’s (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

The estimators are not sold on Mazzaro, as he has a 4.86 xFIP and a 5.11 FIP. But in his last four games, Mazzaro has hurled Quality Starts and he has a 2.30 ERA and a 1.134 WHIP with 2 W in that span. His velocity is down some from a year ago, but Mazzaro is having better success with his fastball in 2010. He also features plus pitches with his slider and curve.

Jonathan Venters – Atlanta Braves (owned in 5% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Billy Wagner having a tremendous year, there is virtually no chance of Venters getting many save opportunities in 2010. But because of his strikeouts, ERA and WHIP, he still has a chance to help fantasy owners. The lefty Venters throws in the mid-90s and has a nice 9.29 K/9. He has a 1.30 ERA, but his xFIP is over two runs higher as he has yet to allow a HR this season. Finally, Venters checks in with a 1.10 WHIP. The WHIP is the shakiest of all, as he has a 4.54 BB/9. But Venters has great stuff, as he complements his heater with a wicked slider. He gets lots of strikeouts and lots of ground balls (63.6 GB%). He’s even picked up 3 W on the season and has a chance to vulture some more going forward with Atlanta’s strong pen.

It’s been a long time since we’ve updated the outfielders – moving across country will do that to you. While I struggled with boxes and furniture, injuries and mediocre play have done some serious damage at the top of the tier.

The Top Options:
Ryan Braun, Milwaukee (.361 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Kemp, Los Angeles NL (.339 wOBA, .364 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Josh Hamilton, Texas (.435 wOBA, .390 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nelson Cruz, Texas (.400 wOBA, .383 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Justin Upton, Arizona (.344 wOBA, .376 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carl Crawford, Tampa Bay (.395 wOBA, .365 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Matt Holliday, St. Louis (.389 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Alex Rios, Chicago White Sox (.377 wOBA, .356 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado (.373 wOBA, .357 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This may upset some people, but it’s just hard to separate out an elite sub-set of outfielders right now. Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp and Justin Upton certainly have the upside to go on a tear and make this ranking seem silly, but right now they just aren’t showing it. They may even need to go on a tear just to get to the lower end of their preseason projections. Another way to spin this is that there are a lot of really nice outfielders. Everyone in this tier, all the way down to Carlos Gonzalez can give you positive value in all five fantasy categories. Upton’s strikeout rate might mean that his batting average will sink him out of this tier, but he’s also shown lower strikeout rates and higher batting averages in the past, so let’s not count him out yet.

There’s Nothing Wrong With…
Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle (.351 wOBA, .354 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Torii Hunter, Los Angeles (.381 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andre Ethier, Los Angeles NL (.399 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh (.362 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA))
Jacoby Ellsbury, Boston (.279 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Shin-Soo Choo, Cleveland (.382 wOBA, .378 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Although this tier is headed up by a couple of veterans, it’s the young speedsters that have the better chance of moving up the ladder. Ichiro! will give you the batting average, but the rest of his line looks a little too much like Denard Span’s to award him first-tier status, and it’s McCutchen that might soon put up Crawford-like numbers to advance tiers. Torii Hunter has power and speed, but it’s a healthy Shin-Soo Choo that has the stronger batting average, so therefore more upside.

Not Quite Five-Category Performers
Jayson Werth, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .385 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Brett Gardner, New York AL (.371 wOBA, .334 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Adam Dunn, Washington (.403 wOBA, .400 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles NL (.426 wOBA, .413 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is the group that provides OF1-like production in deeper leagues, but they’d make a shallow mixed league roster look a little wonky. Brett Gardner and Jayson Werth are the risers here, but Adam Dunn belongs even with his batting average. Manny Ramirez may just fall another tier, especially if he’s out much longer after the break. He’s still good when he’s in, though.

Upside to Join the Top
Curtis Granderson, New York AL (.321 wOBA, .346 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Colby Rasmus, St. Louis (.388 wOBA, .347 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Jason Bay, New York NL (.349 wOBA, .375 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Nick Markakis, Baltimore (.373 wOBA, .374 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Carlos Quentin, Chicago (.363 wOBA, .362 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

Colby Rasmus fans will hem and haw, but they might want to check the rest-of-season projections for Curtis Granderson before they get too heated up. They both have some platoon issues (Granderson’s are more pronounced), both don’t have great batting averages, and both have great power and speed. Oh, and this space feels a little vindicated by Carlos Quentin’s recent hot streak, which has shown that he still has much power, even if the batting average is a problem. The BABIP is so low that with additional regression even the batting average might be nice for the second half.

Some old and new blood for your team…

Jason Giambi | 1B | Rockies | 1% owned

The underperforming Todd Helton is now on the shelf with a back issue, opening up Colorado’s first base spot for Giambi, the former fantasy megastar. Giambi still has the same skills he has throughout his entire career, though his power hasn’t shown up as much with infrequent playing time. He’s still an on-base monster (.382 OBP despite a .234 AVG), and I suspect that his 7.7% HR/FB will go up with more at-bats. He’s going to platoon with Brad Eldred, so just make sure you sit him against lefthanders.

Daniel Hudson | SP | White Sox | 3%

Yanked from the Futures Game roster because of the injury to Jake Peavy, Hudson will assume Chicago’s now vacant rotation spot for the foreseeable future. The 23-year-old shot up the ladder last season (five levels including MLB) and contributed 18.2 rather forgettable innings to the ChiSox. Hudson posted a 3.47 ERA with 10.4 K/9 at Triple-A this year, and really the only problem is that he’s homer prone (1.3 HR/9), not exactly an ideal trait considering Chicago’s ball park. He could contribute a low-4.00’s ERA with a fair amount of strikeouts the rest of the way, but he’s not an every start guy. You’re going to have to pick your spots. Hudson starts against the Royals (and Zack Greinke) on Sunday before the All Star break.

Ownerships rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

I still can’t find anything, and my earthly belongings are on a truck somewhere between New York and California – with New York being more likely despite me being in California. Ain’t moving grand? That said, let’s get on to the meat of the matter. To the Waiver Wire, dudes!

Asdrubal Cabrera, Cleveland Indians (42%)
This should serve as a reminder that Cabrera is still alive. The team has already begun talking about a rehab assignment, and he may be back soon after the All-Star break. Maybe the injury will sap some of his power, but it’s not like Cabrera was smacking the stuffing out of the ball anyway (.081 ISO) and power is not really his game. His feet should be fine – although one stolen base in 140+ 2010 plate appearances doesn’t inspire confidence. So wait, why do we like him? Well, Cabrera can put up a nice batting average (.287 career) and plays at a tough position. There are plenty of owners out there looking at worse situations at shortstop, and if they wanted to get ahead of the game and owned an open DL spot, they could drop their current shortstop, pick up Cabrera, and then pick up Jason Donald (1% owned in Yahoo leagues) for the meantime. Emulating the Cleveland Indians isn’t usually the way to go, but in this case, it should make for a player with a decent batting average at the very least. While Donald’s walk rate is not inspiring (4.9%), he doesn’t strike out much (18.2%) and his BABIP (.330) is not out of line for a man with his above-average wheels or current line drive percentage (22.9%). It looks like he can continue putting up the stats that he’s sporting right now in the short-term future.

Jayson Nix, Cleveland Indians (1% owned)
Hey, it’s Cleveland Indians’ Middle Infield Day! Chalk this up as a win for deep league owners, as most mixed leaguers will want to stay clear of the Cleveland ‘situation.’ Carson Cistulli noted that a) Cleveland’s lineup is wicked young; and b) Nix will be in the mix going forward. Young lineups and bad teams mean opportunities for fantasy managers, and if Nix wins the playing time at second base, he will be more than relevant in deeper leagues given his ability to put up above-average power (.185 ISO this year, .190 last) for a middle infielder. He even has a little speed (10 stolen bases, 2 caught stealing in 2009). Donald will shift over from shortstop once Cabrera returns and should give Nix a run for his money, but at some point, Nix’ batted ball luck will have to change. Do you know that his career BABIP is .234? That’s putrid. Even coming in 451 plate appearances, that is not sustainable. Yes, he’s a fly-ball hitter (48.3% career), and fly balls have worse BABIPs, but this is just ridiculous. Perhaps he needs to work on his line drive stroke (13.1% career, 10.6% this year), but the best news right now is that he has playing time for two weeks and the chance to catch fire. Long term, it’s either Donald that wins at the position, ostensibly for his defense, or as Satchel Price pointed out in his excellent “2013” series, Jason Kipnis for his good-looking bat.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Madison Bumgarner – San Francisco Giants (owned in 9% of Yahoo! leagues)

Last year Bumgarner had velocity issues, with reports of his fastball topping out in the mid-80s. In his two starts in the majors this year, he has averaged 90.3, which is still not the mid-90s he was alleged to have thrown 2-3 years ago, but still a step in the right direction. Bumgarner was 7-1 at Triple-A Fresno, boosted in large part by allowing just 5 HR in 82.2 IP. He has not been so lucky with the gopher ball in the majors, as he has a 16.7 HR/FB ratio in his two starts with the Giants. But Bumgarner survived a rough debut, having to face the Red Sox and a road start in Colorado. He gave the club innings and fantasy owners a nice WHIP (1.14) and a decent K/9 of 6.43. Bumgarner’s xFIP is 3.89 and if he can give fantasy players that ERA the rest of the way, he will be a nice pickup.

Melky Cabrera – Atlanta Braves (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing to get excited about but Cabrera has done quite well since Nate McLouth went on the disabled list. Since June 10th, a stretch of 22 games, Cabrera is batting .284 with 7 R and 9 RBIs. While those are still not eye-popping numbers, they represent a huge improvement over what McLouth gave Atlanta, perhaps an indication Cabrera will keep playing even after McLouth gets activated. Also, for a guy available in most leagues, those are numbers that could help, especially in NL-only formats.

Vicente Padilla – Los Angeles Dodgers (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

Since coming off the DL, Padilla has made three starts and the last two have been very good. After giving up 4 ER in 5.1 IP against the Red Sox in his first action in nearly two months, Padilla has tossed 7 IP in back-to-back outings. In those 14 IP, he has allowed 3 ER and has 12 Ks and 2 BB in starts against the Yankees and Giants. Padilla hit 95.5 with his fastball in his last outing and he has a full repertoire of pitches to use against batters, including a sinker, slider and curve.

It’s a holiday weekend, and in the honor of National Lampoon and holiday/family misadventures everywhere, let’s lead this off with a song and a couple of players that might help fantasy owners on the run:

Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers (37% owned)
Trolling for saves is no exact science. We’ve tried using strikeout rates, walk rates, leverage index, ‘thinking stupid,’ and even fingers in the wind to predict closers in the past. Put this post in the latter category. John Axford has done nothing wrong – well, not quite nothing, he does own a 4.50 walk rate that might make sustaining his current performance level difficult, especially if it starts to approach his higher walk rates of the past – but sometimes doing nothing wrong is not good enough. Even though he hasn’t blown a save yet, and is probably the future at the position for Milwaukee, there’s the little matter of the former closer behind him. Not only has Hoffman turned in eight straight innings with only one run surrendered, but he’s also only four saves short of 600. Milwaukee might turn to the Hoff to boost late-season attendance in his run at glory. Stranger things have happened, and Axford owners at the very least should pick up the legendary change-piecer.

Dexter Fowler, Colorado Rockies (5% owned)
Sometimes you just have to keep plucking that chicken. About a month ago, we recommended Fowler in this space, and he promptly sucked for a while and was sent down. Well, at least he raked… in AAA. In 124 plate appearances, he put up a .340/.435/.566 that showed his team that he had little to figure out in the minor leagues. He’s still a member of one of the more crowded houses in the league, as Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs, Carlos Gonzalez and Brad Hawpe are all are above-average hitters. Fowler is strong against lefties, though, and in a worst-case scenario, he’ll be a caddy for Smith against lefties. However, Todd Helton has lost all his power (.066 ISO) and is a terrible offensive first baseman right now. The team might best be served (even defensively) by putting Hawpe at first many days, which would open up more at-bats for Fowler. In any case, Fowler has been up and has been playing. He’s played in every game since he’s come back up, and was six for his last eight. Guess finally trying out AAA for the first time did him some good. With his five-tool upside, he’s worth a flier in deeper leagues for sure.

Come talk fantasy baseball with Brian Joura and Eno Sarris at 4 pm.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of June

10. Hanley Ramirez .298-4-25-17-9

While none of these numbers jump out at you, Ramirez contributed across the board last month. And those 9 SB were the fourth-highest in MLB. Some might prefer Carl Crawford here, and their months were very similar, but I preferred Ramirez’ 11-RBI edge to Crawford’s 2-SB lead.

9. Brandon Phillips .373-2-7-22-3

Yes, the HR and RBI numbers were nothing to get excited about. But Phillips finished in the top 10 in both AVG and R. And since people think I am too negative about Phillips in general, I thought I would recognize his fine month.

8. Rafael Furcal .362-3-16-21-4

After missing most of May with a strained hamstring, Furcal had an outstanding month in June. While some observers thought his defense suffered, Furcal showed no signs of the hamstring slowing him offensively.

7. Adrian Gonzalez .363-7-23-14-0

He finished in the top 10 in each of the Triple Crown numbers, which made up for the bagel in SB

6. Dustin Pedroia .374-4-16-19-6

His fine month was cut short when Pedroia broke his left foot while fouling a ball off on the 25th. The previous day he had a 5-for-5 game with 3 HR and 5 RBIs.

5. Adrian Beltre .376-7-19-19-0

The difference between fourth and eighth on this list is very small in my opinion. You could make a case for any order and I would not disagree with you.

4. Vladimir Guerrero .356-6-24-22-0

In early June I turned down an offer of Guerrero for Ubaldo Jimenez. Since that team needs offense, I think I might have screwed up.

3. Chris Coghlan .377-3-13-30-2

He led all hitters in runs scored in June and finished fourth in AVG.

2. David Wright .404-6-29-20-4

After posting a 37.1 K% in May, Wright was down to a more manageable 24 percent rate last month. He had a .486 BABIP for the month of June along with a .475 wOBA and a 202 wRC+.

1. Josh Hamilton .454-9-31-23-3

As great as Wright was in June, Hamilton was better. He led MLB in both AVG and RBIs, finished 2nd in HR and 5th in R. He was touted as a buy candidate here in early May and I hope you were able to add him to your team.

Honorable Mention – Crawford, Reyes, Boesch, Sanchez, M. Ramirez

Sitting here on the empty floor of my new home in California, my future is cloudy. It seems like it’s time to make a run and living, and writing, in the best state in the union (apologies New York, but take away one city and you fall behind a bit). Why live if not while doing the thing you love in your favorite place? Oh, and it’s time to update the shortstop rankings since it’s been a while since we last visited that part of the diamond. That much I do know.

The Big Three:
1. Hanley Ramirez, Florida (.383 wOBA, .404 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
2. Jose Reyes, New York NL (.334 wOBA, .360 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
3. Jimmy Rollins, Philadelphia (.378 wOBA, .352 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

It really looks like it’s time to do this. Derek Jeter is on pace to break his own personal record in ground balls, isn’t stealing bases at the clip that he manages in his good years, and isn’t putting up the other-worldly BABIPs of recent years. At his age, he’s always a candidate to slow down, and suddenly it seems like this is the year. If he isn’t going to have the plus batting average, his poor home run and stolen base totals look a lot less exciting.

As wrong as we might have been for pushing Jeter into the top tier for his excellent start, we were as right about keeping Jose Reyes near the top despite his poor first month. After an excellent June, Reyes looks like the man he used to be, and when he bags an extra 25 steals or so over Jeter, he’ll overcome any other advantages the elder New York shortstop has on him.

Another move at the top brings a healthy Rollins into the fold. He’s been a top-3 guy for some time, but his main fault is always there: he’s a bit of a batting average risk year-in and year-out. If the legs are iffy this year, he’s a risk to drop still.

The Next Best Thing:
4. Derek Jeter, New York AL (.338 wOBA, .353 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
5. Elvis Andrus, Texas (.333 wOBA, .331 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
6. Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.359 wOBA, .360 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
7. Troy Tulowitzki, Colorado (.386 wOBA, .368 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
8. Stephen Drew, Arizona (.334 wOBA, .338 ZiPS RoS wOBA)

Other than Jeter moving down, this tier is fairly uneventful. Andrus looks good, and with his speed might be able to maintain some of his strong BABIP, but he has almost negative power. All those grass guzzlers won’t turn into home runs any time soon, no matter how fast he is. Zobrist is looking like a Jeter-lite, or maybe a young Jeter, but the runs totals aren’t quite there yet. Drew is having a tough year, beset with injuries and some struggles against lefties. Not quite the peak year breakout that seemed like it could be on the way. We’ll keep him around for his upside a little longer, but not a whole lot longer.

The Leftovers:
9. Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles NL (.384 wOBA, .344 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
10. Alexei Ramirez, Chicago AL (.294 wOBA, .328 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
11. Erick Aybar, Los Angeles (.315 wOBA, .322 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
12. Yunel Escobar, Atlanta (.301 wOBA, .336 ZiPS wOBA)
13. Marco Scutaro, Boston (.328 wOBA, .348 ZiPS RoS wOBA)
14. Miguel Tejada, Baltimore (.307 wOBA, .332 ZiPS wOBA)
15. Ian Desmond, Washington (.291 wOBA, .319 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
16. Alex Gonzalez, Toronto (.344 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

It’s time to drop Jason Bartlett from the list. He’s losing time to Reid Brignac versus righties, and even if his BABIP regresses and gets his batting average up closer to .280, he’s just not showing any power and has three stolen bases on the year. Not much to like there.

We keep looking for a reason to move Alcides Escobar back onto the list, but at least Ian Desmond is playing every day and providing a tiny bit of power and speed for his owners. Miguel Tejada, on the other hand, might be seeing his long run of consecutive starts come to an end if upstart prospect Josh Bell can show his stuff at the major league level. Baltimore is, of course, looking to the future, and Tejada won’t be a part of that future.