Archive for Uncategorized

Two scorching hot veteran players to help fill out your roster…

Omar Infante | 2B, 3B, SS, OF | Braves | 16% owned

All Star starter Martin Prado hit the disabled list with a fractured pinky finger earlier this week, forcing fellow All Star Infante into every day duty. That’s definitely not a bad thing though, because he’s hit .369/.396/.418 in his last 150 plate appearances dating back to early June. Over his last seven games he’s up to .438/.471/.500 with multiple hits in six of those contests. You won’t get much in terms of power and run production, but Infante should provide a big time AVG boost and a solid helping of runs scored while providing tremendous flexibility. He’s guaranteed playing time for at least the next week and a half.

Vicente Padilla | SP | Dodgers | 36%

Padilla has been featured in a waiver wire post in each of the last two months, so I figure we might as well do ahead and finish off the trifecta. The former Diamondback two-hit the first place Padres last night, giving him eight consecutive starts with no more than two runs allowed, earned or unearned. His strikeout rate (7.9 K/9) and WHIP (0.77) are better than just rock solid during that stretch as well. For all intents and purposes, Padilla’s been a fantasy ace since the end of June. His next three starts will not be a walk in the park though, he lines up to pitch in Philadelphia, in Atlanta, then at home against the Reds.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here are 10 fantasy hitters who really helped their teams in the month of July.

10. Andres Torres .317-7-20-23-5

An injury to Mark DeRosa opened playing time for Torres earlier this year and he has seemingly claimed a permanent spot in the Giants’ outfield. Torres has dwarfed preseason expectations, as he outhomered his ZiPS projection in July alone. His overall numbers this past month are very similar to Aramis Ramirez but a 5-0 edge in SB gives Torres the nod.

9. Mark Teixeira .344-8-26-25-0

Remember when Teixeira looked washed up in April? Since May 1st, he has been the Teixeira of old, being a force in four fantasy categories. This is the second time in three months Teixeira made this list, as he was also mentioned in the May edition.

8. Joey Votto .362-9-17-24-1

Four players hit 9 HR in July and Votto had the fewest RBIs. The other three averaged 22.3 RBIs.

7. Josh Hamilton .418-5-17-17-1

It is not a big surprise to see Hamilton on this list but doing it with below average HR and RBI totals and the third-best AVG in the month is a bit unusual. The top fantasy hitter in June, Hamilton had the power numbers that month that he lacks here in July. But no one is complaining about this line.

6. Miguel Cabrera .398-6-23-17-0

He leads the American League in RBIs and is second in both AVG and HR. Updated ZiPS projects him to finish the year the same way, with a comfortable 13-RBI lead over Alex Rodriguez but finishing second to Josh Hamilton in AVG and second to Jose Bautista in HR.

5. Aubrey Huff .367-8-23-25-2

The Giants went 20-8 in the month of July and with two of their hitters being the top fantasy hitters in the month it is not a big surprise. The .367 AVG that Huff produced was the third highest for him in any month in his career. He batted .402 in July of 2008 and .385 in August of 2004.

4. Jose Bautista .347-11-29-20-1

Bautista is having such an amazing year that it is hard to remember how awful he was in April when he hit just .214 for the month. Actually, Bautista has been hot every other month, with big production in May and July and Mendoza-like production in April and June.

3. Buster Posey .417-7-24-20-0

If there were position adjustments, Posey would be an easy top pick for best hitter. Hopefully you did not trade him in Week #13.

2. Carlos Gonzalez .382-9-22-20-4

The Venezuelan native has been involved in two high-profile deals in his career, going from Arizona to Oakland in the Dan Haren deal and then Oakland to Colorado in the Matt Holliday deal. I think it’s safe to say he will be in Colorado for the foreseeable future.

1. Delmon Young .434-6-30-17-1

What kind of odds could you have gotten in Vegas before the season that Young would be the top fantasy hitter in a month? Generally considered a bust since arriving in the majors, the top overall pick in the 2003 Draft is justifying the hype. He led all major leaguers in AVG and was second in RBIs in July.

Honorable Mention – Carl Crawford, Nelson Cruz, Angel Pagan, Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Barry Enright – Arizona Diamondbacks (owned in 4% of Yahoo! leagues)

He began this year repeating Double-A, which is generally not something you want a 24-year old to be doing. However, Enright dominated in his second go-round in Mobile, as he regained his strikeout rate (8.0 K/9) and did even better limiting walks (1.4 BB/9). But instead of going to Triple-A, Arizona called him up to replace Dontrelle Willis in the rotation. Enright has been solid, with 2 W and a 6.31 K/9 in six starts. His ERA is a nifty 2.78 but both his FIP (3.90) and xFIP (4.68) paint a different picture. The past three seasons in the minors, Enright has a 0.9 HR/9 ratio and this year he has a 0.76 major league rate, so perhaps his talent level is closer to his FIP, which would make him worthwhile. Enright is not a star but he has a chance to give fantasy owners a league average ERA, something not many starters hanging around the waiver wire in August can do.

Logan Morrison – Florida Marlins (owned in 2% of Yahoo! leagues)

With Chris Coghlan going on the DL, the Marlins called up Morrison to become their starting left fielder. With the trade of Jorge Cantu, Morrison has a good chance to stick around even when Coghlan returns, as Coghlan is a former infielder. Morrison has gotten off to a poor start but he is one of the top prospects in all of baseball and is unlikely to continue with a .214 AVG. Morrison will not offer much in SB and he does not have typical power for a 1B. But he is a pure hitter and those in leagues that count OBP should definitely pick up Morrison for the remainder of the season.

Brett Wallace – Houston Astros (owned in 3% of Yahoo! leagues)

The 13th player selected in the 2008 Draft, Wallace is now with his fourth organization. Normally that is not a very good sign, as teams generally do not trade top prospects. But at least some of the concern surrounding Wallace was his defensive position and now he is primed to take over as the Astros first baseman. Wallace brings power potential and anyone on the wire who can produce HRs is always a welcome sight. He hit 18 HR in Triple-A this season. Wallace is not the overall hitter that Morrison is but if you are in search of power, he is the better choice for 2010.

Danny Valencia | 3B | Twins | 4% owned

There’s nothing like six games against the Orioles and Royals to help jump start the bat, eh? Valencia went 14-for-23 with four doubles and homer in those two series, enough of a surge to guarantee him some regular playing time until the Twins trade for someone better. David Golebiewski broke Valencia down in detail last month and concluded that he’s not an every day fantasy option, but there’s never anything wrong with riding out a hot streak while it lasts.

R.A. Dickey | SP | Mets | 30%

I’m not going to lie, I’ve been waiting for what I figured would be Dickey’s inevitable crash back down to Earth for a few weeks now, but I’ve got to hand it to him, the guy’s been great. Knuckleballers tend to be late bloomers, so it’s not out of the question that Dickey has gotten a hold on things at age-35 and can be a viable ML starter.

Will he maintain the 2.32 ERA he has following 8.1 shutout innings of work this afternoon? No, of course not. His FIP coming into today was rock solid at 3.24 thanks to an abnormally low 2.34 BB/9. That should rise in the future just because of the nature of the knuckleball, but he could very easily settle in as a ~4.00 ERA guy for the rest of the season with just enough wins and strikeouts to keep you interested. His next start comes against the Braves next week.

Ownership rates based on Yahoo! leagues.

The trade deadline is getting very close. How close is it? Close enough that Jon Heyman has moved back into Scott Boras’ guest house. Three big names have a very good chance of being traded at the deadline, and it will affect their fantasy value in one way or another. Rumors are flying around the internet like crazy, so I apologize if new information comes out.

Jayson Werth | OF | Likely Destination: Rays

Werth would bring his wood to St. Petersburg (I would say Tampa, but I’d get in trouble for that), and likely play RF for the Rays. Then again, he could move into the DH role instead, allowing Zobrist to stay in right or pave the way for a Desmond Jennings promotion. There’s no way to predict how Werth would handle AL pitching, let along AL East pitching, but I’d like to think that his power would transfer over nicely. If he’s traded, his RBI and run totals will likely rise, while his batting average will decline. Overall value: Slightly Increased.

Roy Oswalt | SP | Likely Destination(s): Phillies, Cardinals

The rumor that’s been floated actually links Werth and Oswalt. The rumor states that the Phillies would use the package the Rays give them to trade for Oswalt. Things get hairy if Houston isn’t excited about the Rays’ prospects, but chances are they will be. Essentially, the Phillies would end up trading Jayson Werth for Oswalt and Dominic Brown. Moving from Houston to Philly would increase Oswalt’s value, due to an increased amount of run support and better defense behind him. Recent reports link the Cardinals to Oswalt, who would benefit from not having to face Pujols. Trading within the division can create problems, but the Astros and Cards could still come to an agreement. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Dan Haren | SP | Likely Destination(s): Cardinals, Tigers

Haren’s possible landing spots are still a mystery, but it seems like it will come down to St. Louis and Detroit. If he moves, I think he’ll end up with the Cardinals, where he started his career. The Cardinals best prospect they could offer the D’Backs is a few years away from the bigs, so they would likely pull the trigger if given the chance. Haren would get more wins due to increased run support, and his ERA and BABIP could benefit from some of Dave Duncan’s magic. Overall value: Significantly increased.

Why do you, the readership, care about these things? Two reasons: First, these deals could be huge in AL-only and NL-only leagues, as players could be switching leagues. Secondly, you may be holding onto a player, or targeting a player because you think (hope?) he’ll be dealt at the deadline to a team that would boost his numbers. Heck, I’ve excluded Haren from trade talks because I’m desperately hoping he’ll be dealt at the deadline, so maybe some of you have been doing something similar.

Thanks to James Niemeyer for this article’s inspiration.

The Pirates have promoted four players this year who will play a big part in their future. How have they done so far, and what is their keeper value going forward? Below are my rankings of the four, from the best keeper to the worst.

Pedro Alvarez | 3B | First Game: June 16th
Alvarez has been mashing this week, hitting four homers in the past two days, including a grand slam on Tuesday. He has admitted that he needed to get in a groove, and it looks like he’s done it during July. His LD rate for the month is much better than it was in June, and while striking out 30% of the time isn’t good, it’s better than the 47.8% mark he put up in June. Sure, his BABIP is high this month, but he’s not a .340 hitter, either. I see Alvarez as a .275-.280 hitter who provides good pop, and that’s good enough for a spot on my roster. If you didn’t believe me on Tuesday morning, you lost out on some great games, but you can still pick him up for the rest of the season and hold onto him.

Neil Walker | 2B | First Game: May 25th
Walker has performed very well since being called up, but still has many things to work on. While his BABIP is 60 points higher than we’d expect, he’s still mashing the ball (23% line drives), leading to a .314 batting average. He hasn’t shown the power production that he had in the minors, but is continuing his recent minor league trend of stealing a couple of bases. He won’t be an empty average guy for long, and could push for your 2B slot in standard leagues next year.

Jose Tabata | OF | First Game: June 9th
Tabata’s numbers have been pretty close to our expectations, and he should only get better. His BABIP may be over the .300 mark, but should actually be 35 points higher thanks to his speed and tendency to keep the ball out of the air. He’s already flashed good speed on the basepaths, stealing 9 bases (13 attempts) in 158 plate appearance. He doesn’t strike out much, and has shown an above-average walk rate. I like him a lot as a steals guy, but I’m not a fan of keeping guys just because they can steal bases.

Brad Lincoln | SP | First Game: June 9th
I’ll be blunt; Lincoln has not been good. Not at all. He’s not striking guys out or getting ground balls, making him a sitting duck. No one has been fooled by his stuff, and he needs to go back to the minors. Not a viable keeper unless you are in the deepest of leagues.

Three players with low ownership rates that should be in consideration for your team…

J.J. Hardy | SS | Twins | 9% owned

Hardy won us all over by posting a .355 wOBA back in 2008, but he followed that up with a disappointing .292 wOBA last year before bottoming out at .288 this season. He missed essentially all of May and June with a wrist issue, but he’s hit .340/.354/.447 (.352 wOBA) in 48 plate appearances since returning earlier this month. All of his power is into the gaps for doubles instead of over the fence for homers, but there’s nothing wrong with that from a shortstop. Even if he can’t maintain that pace for the rest of the season, he’ll have value while he’s hot in the short-term.

Fred Lewis | OF | Blue Jays | 6%

The Giants sure have some egg of their face after selling Lewis to the Jays earlier this season only to watch him post a .352 wOBA with ten steals. He’s hitting .284/.383/.451 with a ton of runs scored and more than a handful of steals since an early-to-mid-June cold streak, and has a whopping nine extra base hits (six doubles, one triple, two homers) in his last dozen games. Here’s a great opportunity to buy low on steals, runs, and even some power without compromising batting average.

J.J. Putz | RP | White Sox | 26%

With Bobby Jenks struggling of late (nine baserunners, seven runs in his last 2.2 IP over four appearances), Ozzie Guillen declared his closer’s role “open” for the time being. Matt Thornton (60% owned) will certainly get some consideration for saves, but so will the scorching hot Putz. The former M’s closer hasn’t allowed a run since early May, a span of 25 appearances, and his numbers during that stretch are simply fantastic: .140/.169/.163 against, 9.36 K/9, 1.22 GB/FB. At some point, the saves will have to come his way. Even if they don’t, here’s a setup man worth owning.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Man, moving into an old house is hard. Every little thing opens up into eight million other things you gotta do. Bah. But you don’t want to hear me whine, you want the waiver wire dirt. So here are a coupla outfielders that could do you good. (Yeah, grammar goes out the window when you are this exhausted.)

Tony Gwynn, Jr, Padres (1% owned)
Gwynn is no unqualified get – they rarely are at this stage of ownership – but he does have some things going for him. For one, it looks like he’s the best outfield defender on his team, going by his double-digit career UZR/150 in center compared to Scott Hairston’s single-digit number. He also can take a walk – his current 13.3% walk rate is second on the team in fact. Last, his current BABIP is so low that he figured highly on Goleblahblah’s xBABIP – BABIP list just the other day. A man that fast should not have a .255 BABIP. As the dinks and dunks fall in, he’ll be able to pair a passable batting average with good speed. With contact rates like he has (96.5% in the zone, 91.6% overall), he could even put up a good batting average. Of course, the rub is that he’s in a crowded outfield. Apologies to Oscar Salazar and Luis Durango, though, Gwynn is, at the very least, in the top four. Will Venable has some strikeout issues (that weren’t this bad in the minor leagues), and Aaron Cunnigham is finally showing something in the major leagues (but could take a walk here or there), so along with Hairston, the Pads have cobbled together a passable outfield. Some days, possibly against lefties (Gwynn had a lower OPS versus lefties in the minors), Hairston will play center field. The rest of the time, it will probably be Gwynn out there, so deeper leagues should look to Gwynn for steals.

Domonic Brown, Phillies (2% owned)
Rumors are rumors, but the newest rumors have Jayson Werth headed to Tampa. The Rays don’t seemingly go for Werth’s type usually (read: big-time in-season acquisition), but his contract expires at season’s end, and at $7.5 million is not onerous. For all the talk that Werth is somehow slumping, his slash line (.280/.371/.502) and wOBA (.376) are almost identical to last year’s (.268/.372/.506; .382). He’s not slumping. Yes, his ISO is a little down (.238 to .222), but it’s closer to his career numbers. So Werth is more probably the 2008 Werth than the 2009 Werth, but would anyone complain about a 20/20 outfielder either? Anyway, back to Brown. He was good enough to make our top 50 trade value list (at #50) and was named the number one Phillies prospect by maven Marc Hulet. We’ll allow space for a longer article concerning Brown (he seems to deserve it), but he’s 22, hitting .328/.389/.592 in Double-A and Triple-A combined this year, with speed (86 stolen bases in 416 minor league games at a 72% success rate) and power (.166 career ISO, with a full-season peak of .214). Let’s just call this a wake-up call for those in deeper leagues. There might be a nice prospect on the way.

Two blasts from the past that could give your team a little nudge in the right direction…

Freddy Garcia | SP | White Sox | 13% owned

You have to hand it to the now 35-year-old Garcia. The guy made just 23 starts over the last three seasons because of shoulder issues, but he’s returned this year and hasn’t missed a single start. The former Randy Johnson trade bait has fired off ten quality starts in his last 12 outings, and has pitched to a 3.25 ERA since late-May. No, the season peripherals don’t line up (5.57 K/9, 2.69 BB/9, 1.21 HR/9), but they have been better during this recent run of success (6.15 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9).

(R) ZiPS understandably predicts just eight more starts with a 4.93 ERA (4.61 FIP) and 5.79 K/9 the rest of the season, but Chicago’s schedule features 13 consecutive games against the Mariners and Athletics following this weekend’s four game set with Minnesota, so there’s definitely an opportunity to steal some wins here. Plus the ChiSox never seem to lose these days (25-5 over the last month or so). If nothing else, recent history is on his side.

Corey Patterson | OF | Orioles | 10%

Yeah yeah yeah, call me hypocrite, I deserve it. Admitting your mistakes is part of the fantasy game, we’ve all been there. In my defense, we’ve reached the point of the season where legitimate bargains are nowhere to be found on the waiver wire, replaced by the usual dreck of injury fill-ins and the occasional player on a hot streak. Patterson is one of those guys on a hot streak.

Since mid-June, Patterson has fashioned a more than solid .333/.362/.468 batting line from atop Baltimore’s lineup, and best of all he’s stolen ten bags in that time. His season BABIP sits at .361, and during the recent hot streak it was an unsustainable .416, but there’s no reason we can’t ride this thing out, especially when there are stolen bases involved. (R) ZiPS calls for 204 plate appearances of utter mediocrity the rest of the way (.249/.288/.389, eight steals), but if he can chip in a half-dozen steals and not kill your AVG over the next week or two, what’s not to like?

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Last year at the All-Star break I did a piece that collected all the pitchers who had a difference of at least 0.50 between their FIP and xFIP. At the end of the season I collected the 2nd half ERA for each pitcher in the survey to see if FIP or xFIP did a better job of predicting the results. The raw results favored xFIP, as that metric did a better job predicting 20 of the 34 pitchers. However, FIP did a better job of predicting how the best pitchers in the group would fare.

The results were definitely interesting, but it was hard to make any proclamations off one year of data. So, now is the time to assemble this year’s chart of pitchers with a discrepancy of at least half a run between their FIP and xFIP. Like last year, this list was crafted by hand, so please let me know if you see any omissions. I am looking for pitchers who had 70 or more innings pitched at the All-Star break.

This year there are 38 pitchers in our survey. Five pitchers are repeats from a season ago – Kershaw, Lee, Blackburn, Verlander and Bannister. However both Blackburn and Bannister had HR/FB rates below average last year at the break while they are both above average this year. Kershaw, Lee and Verlander are the only ones who “beat” the average HR/FB rates in both seasons. As far as predicting 2nd half ERA goes, Kershaw and Lee were wins for FIP while xFIP did a better job of predicting Verlander.

To determine which metric is better at forecasting 2nd half ERA, I am going to take the midpoint between their FIP and xFIP and compare it to their real life ERA in the second half of the season.

Using Kennedy as an example, 4.57 is the midpoint between his FIP and xFIP. So, if Kennedy’s ERA in the second half is 4.44, I will count that as a “win” for xFIP. On the flip side, if Kennedy’s second half ERA is 4.66, I will count that as a “win” for FIP.

Like last year, I will check in on this list after the end of the regular season.