Archive for Uncategorized

Some players to keep your eye on during the last month of the season.

Freddy Sanchez | 2B | 17% Owned
Seeing that he was a fantasy darling only a few years ago, I’m surprised Sanchez isn’t owned more. He had a big August, mostly due to a huge BABIP. However, his line drive rate was impressive the past couple of months, so the days of Sanchez hitting over .300 may have returned. He still won’t steal any bases or provide you with much power, but he is a low-risk option late in the year. Pick him up if he need help in the “runs” category, or don’t want to risk losing points in the batting average column.

Felix Pie | OF | 4% Owned
With playing time has come return for the Orioles, as Pie is showing some of the promise that made him a highly thought of prospect in the Cubs organization. Given a full year of starting, Pie may be able to produce a .300/15/15 season, good enough for a backup outfielder in most leagues. He’s done a great job lowering his strikeout rate, but his walk rate has suffered. While not a great option in OBP leagues, he’s worth your time in standard leagues.

Chris Narveson | SP | 2% Owned
Narveson has done a great job of not issuing free passes recently, even if he doesn’t strike anyone out. He’s nothing special, but he’ll give you a chance to rack up a couple wins during the last month on the season. As an extreme fly ball pitcher, you’re taking a risk, but he’s worth it.

Wade LeBlanc | SP | 11% Owned
The pitcher from Petco had a fantastic August, upping his whiff rate to over 10% and striking out close to a batter every inning. His ground ball rate stayed the same, so I’m loving LeBlanc right now. He doesn’t really have the arsenal for that high of a strikeout rate, but hovering around the 7.5 mark per nine isn’t out of the question.

As the trade season has ended for most of us, it’s natural to transition from rankings to posts about players that might be on your wire. Here is a duo that might just help at baseball’s second-most plentiful position.

Brad Hawpe, Free Agent (29%)
Brad Hawpe is a free agent in August, which must be both disconcerting and possibly exciting to him, and is also making his fantasy value very nebulous and context-specific. He’s always been a little context-specific anyway, with a .227 ISO at home and a .197 ISO on the road. Though Hawpe has been having a bad year, only his ISO and HR/FB rates are far off his norms, and those statistics take more than his current 300 plate appearances to stabilize. He could easily return to his old ways in a new stadium… especially if his new stadium is in Texas, which has a nice 120 park factor for home runs by left-handed batters. The Rangers are rumored to be in on the former Rockies outfielder as a backup 1B/DH/OF to help them survive through some current injury and poor play. Hawpe would have to beat out Jorge Cantu and Mitch Moreland for playing time at first base, which sounds doable. Even easier for Hawpe would be beating Willy Aybar and Dan Johnson out for time in Tampa Bay. While Tampa doesn’t offer the same left-handed park factor (88), it does offer an easier path to regular time. In deep leagues with five outfielders, he makes for a sneaky waiver claim.

Chris Denorfia, Padres (7% owned)
When Tony Gwynn Jr. (or Thin Gwynn) went down this year, it was San Diego’s loss but Denorfia’s gain. Well, actually, it might have even been San Diego’s gain, other than Denorfia’s career -19.6 UZR/150 in center field. No matter, Scott Hairston can shift over to center defensively (career 7.6 UZR/150) and allow Denorfia more time at a corner position. Either way, Denorfia is the brand new owner of steady playing time without a real threat in sight. A career .282/.354/.429 line is eminently decent already, but he’s showing more power with a .477 slugging percentage and a .192 ISO this year. That power surge may not continue – his ISO in the minor leagues was a below-average .106 and his major league career has only spanned 479 plate appearances to date. But Denorfia has a little speed (5.5 speed score this year, 5.0 is average), some ability to control the stick and get on base, and a tiny bit of pop. In deeper leagues, it’s the playing time that makes him attractive enough to pick up. Hopefully ‘Unbreakable’ can stay in one piece for the rest of the season.

A pair of players who cut their teeth in Japan before making a splash in MLB…

Hideki Matsui | OF | Angels | 36% owned

Godzilla’s season has mostly been one of disappointment after the Halos signed him to replace Vlad Guerrero, but the 36-year-old has turned it on in a big way since the All Star break. He’s hitting .305/.383/.552 with six homers in his last 29 games and has been even better over the last two weeks or so: .515/.590/.879 with a pair of long balls. (R) ZiPS forecasts a more than respectable .275/.350/.462 over the last month of the season, numbers that could certainly help any fantasy club. As long as Matsui’s surgically repaired knees hold up, you’re in the clear.

Koji Uehara | SP, RP | Orioles | 10%

The Orioles really haven’t had a set closer all season following Mike Gonzalez’s disastrous start and subsequent DL stint, but Buck Showalter has given the ball in Uehara in each of the team’s last save situations, not to mention another game when the O’s had a four run lead in the 9th. For now, it looks like Uehara will be Baltimore’s closer du jour, and his value extends beyond saves as well. The 35-year-old has struck out 31 batters in 27 IP this season, walking just five and allowing zero long balls. His ERA is a dead even 2.00 (1.36 FIP, 3.18 xFIP). The O’s won’t win a ton of games, but when they do, it looks like Uehara is the guy that will grab those save opps.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Chances are your trade deadline has passed, so the waiver wire is of supreme importance down the stretch. Here’s a pair of players that could prove useful in the coming weeks.

Coco Crisp | OF | Athletics | 34% owned

Zach Sanders highlighted Crisp as a potential late season steals candidate, but that’s not the limit of his value. He sports a .380/.418/.606 batting line over the last three weeks with three homers, eight steals (caught zero times for you net steal players), and 15 runs scored. (R) ZiPS sees a .268/.338/.423 batting line the rest of the way, but as long as he’s hot, his bat could make a huge difference this late in the season. Chances are you don’t have three outfielders performing this well right now, so jump on it if Crisp is still available in your league.

Ryan Raburn | 1B, 2B, OF | Tigers | 21%

The 29-year-old Raburn has benefited from various injuries to the Tigers’ regular starting nine, having assumed the everyday leftfield job (with Johnny Damon shifting to the DH) this month. He’s hitting .362/.393/.724 with five homers and 13 runs scored over the last two weeks, a bit of a statistical correction for his .191/.286/.265 stretch from early-July to early-August. (R) ZiPS pegs him for just .257/.325/.432 the rest of the way, but again, as long as he’s hot, there’s no reason not to ride it out. The eligibility at multiple positions is a big bonus, particularly since one of them is an up the middle spot.

Ownership rates are based on Yahoo! leagues.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Josh Bell – Baltimore Orioles (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The overall numbers are nothing special but since August 11, Bell has a .333 AVG with 2 HR and 6 RBIs in 10 games. While most of that damage came in just one game, the encouraging thing for Bell is the plate discipline he has showed recently. For the year, he has a 34.6 K% with the Orioles. But in his last 10 games he has 9 Ks in 33 ABs for a more manageable 27.3 K%. Bell should give you power potential with a solid AVG the rest of the way if he can keep the strikeouts under control.

Michael Brantley – Cleveland Indians (owned in 9 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

Another player whose overall numbers mask a recent stretch of productive play. Thanks to a .220 BABIP, Brantley carries a .212 AVG for the year. But in his last 12 games he has hit .327 with 12 R and 7 RBIs. Additionally, he has 2 HR and 2 SB in that stretch since being recalled from the minors. Brantley did sprain his ankle recently, but an MRI came back negative and he will not go on the disabled list.

Bobby Parnell – New York Mets (owned in 5 percent of Yahoo! leagues)

With Francisco Rodriguez done for the year, the closer spot is up for grabs in the Mets bullpen. So far, Hisanori Takahashi and Manny Acosta have notched saves in his absence. But Parnell is another option and could easily pick up a handful of saves the final six weeks of the season. Even if he does not get many saves, Parnell has the opportunity to help fantasy owners with a 9.36 K/9. Always a hard thrower, Parnell has been over 100 mph with his fastball recently. At 3.24, his ERA is higher than you would like from a setup guy as a fantasy player, but both his FIP (1.74) and xFIP (2.28) paint a different picture.

This was going to be a rankings update, because it’s been six weeks since we last looked at the shortstops, but amazingly little has changed. There’s still Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes, and Jimmy Rollins at the top, some okay guys four-through-eight, and then a whole bunch of leftovers.

Instead let’s look at some guys near the bottom, just in case you are looking for an injury replacement, or your current shortstop is just killing you. They might be on your mixed- or deep-league waiver wire, and can provide some short-term help.

Stephen Drew, Arizona (60% owned)
The younger Drew has not had a great month, going .224 with three home runs and no stolen bases, but he was just part of a four-home-run-in-a-row onslaught that could awaken the bat. His current .146 ISO is well below his career number (.170) and since ISO takes the longest to become predictable (550 plate appearances, and Drew has 435 PAs), there’s still some hope left that the power returns. The speed scores have stayed steady around 5.8, so he looks like he’s got above-average speed (5.0 is average) and will sprinkle some steals in. With his batting average currently batted-ball luck neutral (.301 BABIP), we can’t expect a lot in that category. With a little power boost, though, he could best his ZiPs RoS without too much effort.

Yunel Escobar, Toronto (49% owned)
It seems that the change of venue has treated Escobar well. He’s gone .306/.344/.447 since the trade, and those are entirely repeatable numbers based on his .292/.367/.405 career numbers and the power drought he was mired in earlier in the season. Since joining the Jays, Escobar has eschewed the walk (4.3%, 9.5% career) in favor of some pop (.141 ISO, .114 career ISO) – that should sound familiar to anyone watching the “Grip It & Rip It” Jays right now. They have the fourth-worst walk rate in the American League, and the best ISO by far (.210 to the Red Sox’ .189). It remains to be seen how this affects Escobar long term, but more power would make him a fringe mixed-league candidate. He still hits too many balls on the ground to really be a power threat, and his speed scores (3.4 career) make him a poor pickup for steals. But if you need a little batting average and the occasional home run, Escobar is in the right place right now.

Brendan Ryan, St. Louis (3% owned)
Ryan is no great shakes. That much should be obvious from his career wRC+ (85) if not from any of his other underwhelming statistics. He has no power (.090 career ISO) and last year’s 14 steals were a career high. But as fantasy players, you all know that shortstop is a tough position to fill. The average wOBA of qualifying shortstops this year is .311, while the average wOBA across all positions is .324. Suddenly his 85 wRC+ doesn’t look as bad next to the average shortstop’s 96 wRC+. Ryan has also been working on his swing by reducing his movement – a development than anyone who has watched Ryan would welcome. We know all about the horrors of the small sample size, but since the break, Ryan has put up a .299/.333/.338 line that looks sustainable given the fact that his BABIP regression (currently .251) will hopefully help him continue to push his currently horrid line back to his career norms.

Jed Lowrie, Boston (1% owned)
It’s possible that Jed Lowrie is actually Yunel-Escobar-lite. He has poor speed (3.7 career speed score), and the power hasn’t shown itself yet (.137 ISO career). But his career has been so short to date because of his myriad injuries (436 PAs) that his ISO has not stabilized yet. His best season in the minor leagues was his healthiest, when he put up 498 combined ABs between Double- and Triple-A and had a combined .290/.387/.495 park- and luck-adjusted line according to MinorLeagueSplits.com. Of course, the MLE for that (.243/.318/.397) looks a lot like his major league line so far (.244/.327/.381), so maybe this is what we get. He can definitely take a walk, though (11.5% career walk rate), and has value in OBP leagues. So far in August, he has 24 ABs in 12 Red Sox games, which is just barely relevant. If the Sox fall further out of it, they may just want to see what they have in the young dude.

Here are three players with low ownership rates who could pay immediate dividends in fantasy leagues:

Peter Bourjos – Anaheim Angels (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

It has been a rough go of it for Bourjos in his first go-round in the majors. Currently hitting a dismal .136, Bourjos has a .196 wOBA and just a 14 wRC+. The good news is that the top prospect got called up to play and is likely to hold on to his job long enough for his .158 BABIP to turn around. And when it does, Bourjos is likely an excellent source of SB. He had 32 SB last year in Double-A and notched 27 this year in Triple-A, where he also had a .364 BABIP, before getting the call to the majors.

Jed Lowrie – Boston Red Sox (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The injury to Dustin Pedroia has opened the door for regular playing time for Lowrie, who missed most of the 2010 season due to mononucleosis. While he has some pop, most of Lowrie’s fantasy value comes from a high AVG and he is currently batting .286 in 42 ABs. He played 26 games at SS last year and just passed the 10-game mark at 2B this year, so it is possible he has multi-position eligibility in your league.

Josh Thole – New York Mets (owned in 1% of Yahoo! leagues)

The knock on Thole coming into the season was that he was not a good defensive backstop. Now he is the personal catcher for knuckleball pitcher R.A. Dickey, the hardest pitcher on the staff to catch. Some wondered if Thole, who chokes up on the bat more than any Mets player since Felix Millan, had enough power to hit in the majors but he already has two doubles and a HR this season. Playing time is a concern for Thole, but with Rod Barajas on the DL, more ABs have developed for the 23-year-old. Thole’s forte is AVG and he is hitting .323 in 62 ABs this season. Thole may only play two or three games per week, but that is an outstanding AVG, especially for those in leagues which start two catchers.

It’s been almost six weeks since we updated the rankings for second basemen. Oh, in those hallowed days of yore – six weeks hence I lived in New York City, my commute was filled with tourists and teenagers, six-packs cost $12 and every once in a while human feces was something I had to watch out for. Greatest city in the world. On to the second basemen, with to-date wOBA and ZiPs RoS wOBAs included for your pleasure.

The Top Targets:
Robinson Cano, New York AL (.403 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Kinsler, Texas (.359 wOBA, .368 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Dustin Pedroia, Boston (.381 wOBA, .372 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati (.349 wOBA, .339 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Not much to report here, other than perhaps the fact that some would want Cano in his own tier with Utley and Pedroia down and Kinsler showing much less power than he has in the past. It’s not an unreasonable position. However, the other three guys still have 20/20 type skills, and with Cano’s lack of speed, it makes sense to create this tier.

Strong Secondary Options
Dan Uggla, Florida (.383 wOBA, .365 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee (.375 wOBA, .360 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Kelly Johnson, Arizona (.379 wOBA, .373 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ben Zobrist, Tampa Bay (.345 wOBA, .347 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Johnson is enjoying the best power production of his career, and his home park might just have a little to do with it. Just look at his home slugging percentage (.605) compared to his road number (.380). It still evens out to an effective second baseman either way. Zobrist is stealing enough bases and showing just enough power to be useful even in this less-exciting version. He could be a mascot for the tier – a little ugly, but getting the job done.

Will They Ever Get it Together This Year:
Chase Utley, Philadelphia (.377 wOBA, .406 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Chone Figgins, Seattle (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Brian Roberts, Baltimore (.292 wOBA, .356 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Of course the question with Utley is one of health. The latest reports say the splint is off and he hopes to be back before the end of the month, meaning that he could be a sneaky acquisition for a manager looking for a late boost. In head-to-head leagues in particular, Utley is intriguing as a strong addition for a contending team stocking up for the fantasy playoffs. Since the break, Figgins has been hitting .300 and striking out less, so it’s possible the old Figgins is back and we just didn’t notice. Kinda makes him either over-rated or a buy-low candidate depending on how you parse that statement. There’s a whole lot of rust and a really small sample size for Roberts, so he makes the riskiest buy low of the trio.

Pick ‘Em:
Placido Polanco, Philadelphia (.346 wOBA, .348 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Martin Prado, Atlanta (.364 wOBA, .353 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ian Stewart, Colorado (.348 wOBA, .346 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Casey McGehee, Milwaukee (.335 wOBA, .327 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ryan Theriot, Los Angeles (.290 wOBA, .302 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Ty Wigginton, Baltimore (.339 wOBA, .358 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Juan Uribe, San Francisco, (.330 wOBA, .328 ZiPs RoS wOBA)

This is a pick ’em tier not because they all have the exact same value. In many leagues, these guys are free agents and their value is close to nil. Of course, deeper league owners are happy to have many of them. It’s the fact that each offers production in a category or two that makes them pick ’ems. Need a little bit of pop? Try Wigginton or Uribe if Stewart is not available. Need some speed? It could be worse than The Riot. Need some batting average help? Polanco can help while Prado is out. The flaws are all there, too, though.

Upside to Join the Top:
Gordon Beckham, Chicago (.296 wOBA, .331 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Aaron Hill, Toronto (.305 wOBA, .327 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Howie Kendrick, Los Angeles AL (.317 wOBA, .326 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Ian Desmond, Washington (.302 wOBA, .321 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

Technically, this group still has the upside to move upwards. They’ve all had some poor batted ball luck – Hill of course the most extreme (.204 BABIP) – and the regressions to their means might give for a nice stretch or two in the final seven weeks. On the other hand, their flaws are also fairly impressive at this point. Hill hits everything in the air to his detriment (52.1% flyballs, 13.2% popups), Desmond reaches a little too often (34.1%, 17.5% more than average) and could make more contact (79.1%, 2.3% below average), and Kendrick still doesn’t have the power (.141 ISO) or the speed (4.9 Speed Score) to make an impact in the counting categories. Beckham hasn’t been too unlucky with his BABIP, and though he does have the flaws to put him in this group (.117 ISO most prominently), his rookie year still shows his upside and makes his owners wonder which Beckham is the true version. These guys have a sliver of hope between them and the next group down.

Filler:
Carlos Guillen, Detroit (.331 wOBA, .353 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Orlando Hudson, Minnesota (.335 wOBA, .342 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Felipe Lopez, St Louis (.323 wOBA, .316 RoS ZiPs wOBA)
Alberto Callaspo, Los Angeles AL (.311 wOBA, .324 ZiPs RoS wOBA)
Mike Aviles, Kansas City (.300 wOBA, .304 RoS ZiPs wOBA)

This is a new tier, but the name reveals all. It’s nice to get most of the second basemen in the league listed in one place, so this group has a place. That place is probably not on your fantasy team unless most starters in your league are owned. It’s completely possible that not a single guy among the four will crack double-digits in either home runs or steals, or hit .300.