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Dan Szymborski’s ZiPs projections for the Astros came out today, and the projections for that lineup are a depressing sight for Astros fans – or keeper-league owners with the misfortune of owning Astros. Let’s cover some of the low-lights, which happen to comprise the corner infield and middle of the lineup, here.

Brett Wallace: .261/.324/.414 with 17 HR and 59 RBI
We should have known this would be ugly when Bill James refused to project Wallace despite the fact that Wallace is probably the starting first baseman for the Astros this upcoming season. ZiPs projects a poor power output for a first baseman – his .153 ISO would prove to be barely above the .145 overall average last year, and squarely below the number qualified first baseman averaged (.203 ISO). Worse even are his plate discipline stats (32/129 K/BB). This kind of production might play while the Astros are in transition, but it won’t be a long-term solution, and if anyone steps to the fore and looks ready in 2011, they might even get a look this season. The only way that Wallace makes a good fantasy pick is if he drops too far (bench picks?) in a deep league draft – and even then, he’s probably a better late corner infield or utility solution than a first baseman. We always knew that Wallace had some stats that were inflated by his relative age and run environments, but these projections really hammer it home. This is why all his teams traded him.

Chris Johnson: .269/.303/.429 with 16 HR and 73 RBI
As bad as it sounds, having two mediocre corner infielders puts the Astros’ corner infield in the middle of baseball when it comes to at least one statistic. Their combined projected .160 ISO would have ranked 15th (tied with the Phillies!) in the league last year. Let’s hear it for the average guys! We all knew that last year’s .387 BABIP wouldn’t make it into the projections, and with his plate discipline last year (4.1% BB, 26.7% K) it’s no surprise to see that batting average plummet. What Johnson has going for him – that Wallace doesn’t – is his position. Last year, qualified third basemen put up a .174 ISO, which puts Johnson (.160 ISO) much closer to average at his position. The problem with these two men in fantasy, however, is that it’s much more likely that someone in your league values their upside just because of their age. And if they value their upside, they’ll pick them before you can. If your investment in Johnson is commensurate with the value of, say, the 20th-best third baseman in fantasy baseball – then he’s a value.

A quick look at a post by Jack Moore at RotoHardball shows the benefit a change in lineup can make. In short, the difference between batting second and batting fifth can be as much as .33 plate appearances a game, or around 50 a season.

A quick look at the nearest newswire will show you that the Red Sox have managed to revamp their lineup in just a few short days. At issue is what the new lineup will look like, especially since the team is now so lefty-heavy. It may not mean the difference between a good and bad season, but 50 plate appearances is not something to sneeze at.

In the last week, Buster Olney famously submitted his new lineup and then Carson Cistulli updated it by using Baseball Musing’s lineup optimizer tool. These two lineups are pretty different, but there is one similarity worth discussing further from a fantasy angle.

Yes, both the stat-head lineup and the traditional lineup feature Jacoby Ellsbury in the nine-hole. Maybe one focused on his 6.7% career walk rate, and the other was looking at Ellsbury as the ‘second leadoff man,’ but the results were clear enough that they strongly suggest that’s where Ellsbury will end up. That’s not a good thing for those projecting a bounce-back for Ellsbury.

It’s not that he can’t have success at the bottom of the order. It’s just that we have to temper the plate appearances. In 2009, he racked up 693 plate appearances – and that would make the Bill James’ projection (674 plate appearances) seem reasonable. However, Ellsbury had 504 plate appearances in the leadoff spot that year, where the average player (per Tango’s The Book) has 4.83 plate appearances per game. In the nine hole, Ellsbury could expect to see 3.90 plate appearances per game. That’s almost a full plate appearance per game.

Let’s take that .93 PA per game away from his 2009 numbers then. That’s a full 150 plate appearances fewer, meaning Ellsbury might hope to approach 540 or 550 plate appearances should he play in the nine hole most days.

But we also know that this figure represents the best possible upside.

Judging from Chris Cwik’s column on Friday, Ellsbury, J.D. Drew, Mike Cameron and David Ortiz may be splitting some time in the outfield and at DH, provided the tam does not move one of the group in the next few weeks.

After considering this group, the best probable scenario has Cameron as more or less a fourth outfielder and Ortiz as a platoon DH. Ortiz did put up a .268 wOBA against lefties last year, his third straight year of below-average work against southpaws. That’s 200 PAs that could go to someone else next year. Drew has been injured off and on the last few years, and usually ends up around 550 PAs, which is about 100 PAs short of a full ride in right field and his position in the lineup.

Would Mike Cameron be okay with 300 PAs? That would allow Ellsbury to enjoy 550 plate appearances in center field. The team says that they rate Ellsbury’s defense as above-average, and Cameron’s defense fell off, but short-sample UZRs are not so useful. If the two of them instead split the 850 plate appearances – meaning everyone stays healthy and Cameron and Ellsbury are essentially sharing center and the leftover PAs in right and at DH – then you’re looking at 425 PAs for Ellsbury.

This is no science, but you’re looking at a range between 400 and 550 plate appearances for Ellsbury most likely, and a risk that he gets only 350 or so as the backup. That means the real best case scenario – 550 plate appearances – would have Ellsbury with 153 hits, 83 runs and 48 steals using Bill James projections. That could be helpful if his draft spot drops, but the risk – 350 plate appearances – is that he ends up with 97 hits, 53 runs and 30 stolen bases.

And those projections are all using Bill James’ numbers, oft thought to be the rosiest of the mainstream projections.

Edit: On Saturday, this came through the interwebs:

Red Sox manager Terry Francona expects to bat Carl Crawford second or third in 2011, with Jacoby Ellsbury leading off.
“I’ll sit down with Carl, I’ll sit down with Pedey,” Francona said. “Obviously, he’s going to hit somewhere in the top of the order, second or third. But we want to have some balance, as much as we can, with Adrian and Youk following and David (Ortiz) and J.D. (Drew). There’s some things to think about.” We doubt Pedroia will be dropped in the order, so we tentatively expect him to hit second and Pedroia to bat third.

There’s a lot of risk here. I’m not even sure that more information in Spring Training will remove that uncertainty. Draft Ellsbury at your own peril.

Here are your results from this week’s round of topical crowdsourcing.

Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox / Padres)
My vote: 16 / 25
Average: 13.3 / 23.2
Median: 12 / 23
Std Dev: 5.3 / 6.6

Good news: 95% of you read the instructions and voted based on the pick, not the round. These numbers started out around the 15 and 25 marks in the beginning, and slowly crawled their way down as the hours wore on. Perhaps I was a bit bearish with my predictions, because the numbers you all came up with make sense. Essentially, Gonzalez will be taken at the turn in every draft, and I did just that in a mock draft yesterday. If I can start a team with Gonzalez as one of my two cornerstones, I’m happy.

Mark Reynolds
My vote: 10
Average: 7.8
Median: 8
Std Dev: 3

This is probably the farthest I’ve been off thus far. Reynolds is an interesting guy coming off a poor year, and I thought the 10th round was generous enough for owners hoping for a bounceback. I believed a 10th round pick was pretty safe due to his move to the AL East and some expected regression in his batting average. Apparently, I was wrong. If it’s going to cost a seventh or eighth round pick to nab Reynolds, I’m probably staying away. That risk isn’t worth it to me with so many other players left on the board, even with the weak third base class. That’s just me, and I’m wondering if any of you are willing to take that leap of faith with Reynolds?

Here are the results from this week’s groundbreaking editions of ADP Crowdsourcing, as it was our first time trying out a closer, a player who missed all of 2010, and a top-25 talent.

Joe Nathan
My vote: 8
Average: 11
Median: 11
Std Dev: 4

So, none of us really have much of an idea where Nathan will go, do we? If there’s one thing we can all agree on, it’s that Nathan would go somewhere around the seventh round if he were healthy, maybe even earlier if a closer run gets going. But, we just don’t know how he’ll respond coming back from his injury, at least not yet. If we did this with Nathan in spring training, when we have some sort of read on his status, our results would probably be very different. If he looks healthy, an 11th round selection is obviously a steal. But if he’s healthy, you aren’t going to get him in the 11th, are you? Just because of the inherent risk involved, I’m probably not going to draft Nathan this year, but if I did, it’d be in the 10-12 range.

Alex Rodriguez
My vote: 2
Average: 2.21
Median: 2
Std Dev: 1.05

Reader “Jason B” brought up a very good point in the comments on Wednesday, wondering why I didn’t group the selections for A-Rod by pick number rather than round number. I probably should have, but I did want to see how the format worked with an early round talent. I’ll probably try an early round guy soon, and will try out pick number instead of round. But, the old method held up fine, showing that A-Rod will likely go in the early second round, and he probably won’t fall further than the early third. I think he’s a great 1-2 turn candidate this year, and I’d be more than happy to take him there.

Let’s take a quick look at the fantasy impact of a trio of recent transactions…

Huff Re-Ups With The Giants

Aubrey Huff went from a man without a job in January to a .388 wOBA in the regular season, helping the Giants to their first World Championship in San Francisco. GM Brian Sabean committed one of baseball’s cardinal sins when he re-signed Huff for big money after he played hero, especially when his performance showed signs of regression during the season and into the playoffs. After coming out of the gate with a .409 wOBA and 20 homers in the season’s first four months, he dipped down to a (still solid) .349 wOBA with just six homers from August onward. His playoff performance (.292 wOBA) wasn’t much to write about either.

With no significant change in his batted ball profile (a few less grounders, a few more line drives) and minimal improvements in his contact and plate discipline rates, there’s little evidence of a real change in Huff’s approach and underlying performance. That’s not to say he won’t be productive in 2010, just don’t expect another extended Albert Pujols impersonation, certainly not at that age (34 next month) and not in that park.

Garland Goes Back To LA

Jon Garland’s had himself a heck of a career, amassing 23.3 WAR (16.2 in the last six seasons) and soaking up innings like few others. His fantasy value is minimal because of a measly strikeout rate (4.84 K/9 career) and a tendency to put a lot of men on base, but he’ll get you double digit wins and shouldn’t blow up your ERA. The most from the Padres to the Dodgers does little, Garland’s basically the same guy he always was.

Uribe Cashes In

Two offseasons ago, Juan Uribe had to settle for minor league contract and an invitation to Spring Training. Now he’s busy celebrating a three year contract that will put $7M in his pocket on annual basis. He brings his ~.200 ISO to the Dodgers, where he’ll slide in at second base. Uribe’s best asset is his multi-position eligibility and ability to approach, if not exceed, 20 homers on an annual basis. The change in run environments won’t do much to his value; he’ll still kill you in an OBP league but serve as a fine second or third tier option at either middle infield spot in regular leagues.

Here are your results from last week’s round of voting. Don’t forget to submit your vote for today’s ballot (Joe Nathan), which went up earlier this morning.

Pablo Sandoval
My vote: 9
Average: 10.63
Median: 10
Std Dev: 3.73

Apparently I was off a little bit, but these results seem about right to me. However, the fairly large standard deviation worries me, as I’d like to see it drop down about a full round. But, it shows just how much argument there will be when it comes to Kung Fu Panda’s value. Valuing Sandoval as a late 10th round pick means owners are expecting something close to a .280 average with 17 homers with a little more than 70 runs scored and driven in. Those numbers are fairly reasonable for Pablo, so you aren’t going to get much of a deal if you take him in the tenth. If he could fall to me in the 12th, I’d be much more excited, but I suppose I could talk myself into a 10th round selection if I hadn’t taken a third baseman yet.

Wandy Rodriguez
My vote: 9
Average: 10.97
Median: 10.5
Std Dev: 2.71

Just like Pablo, I leaned a little too early with Wandy. I am very happy with the smaller standard deviation, though, and it makes me much more confident in your conclusions. Selecting Wandy on the 10-11 turn means that owners aren’t expecting a whole lot from him. In fact, if he can just put up the same overall numbers as last year, he’ll be worth more than that. I don’t think that means that you, the voter, are wrong. It just shows the lack of respect Wandy will receive, especially after his early season slump last year. If I can grab Wandy in the late 10th or early 11th to be my third starter, I’m very happy with that. All it would take for Wandy to be worthy of a second starter ranking would be lucking into some wins, and that’s a chance I’m willing to take.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Since it is turkey day, I figured I’d give thanks to things throughout the fantasy world from last season and the upcoming one. I had fun doing this last year, so I figured I’d carry on the tradition.

I’m thankful for…Brandon Morrow getting a shot in the rotation. I was always a Morrow hater when he was in Seattle (mainly because of the whole Lincecum thing), but I’ve changed my tune after seeing a full season of him in the rotation. Makes you wonder what he could have done if Bavasi hadn’t jerked him around so much. On that thought, I’m thankful Bill Bavasi is no longer the Mariners GM.

I’m thankful for…Shin-Soo Choo getting out of his military service. Losing Choo wouldn’t have been good for baseball, the Indians, or keeper league owners everywhere.

I’m thankful for…young rooks like Mike Stanton and Jason Heyward. Getting to see two youngsters take the league by storm early on is really fun to watch.

I’m thankful for…John Buck’s breakout season. Watching someone overpay for him on draft day is going to be so much cool.

I’m thankful for…Ubaldo Jimenez’s early brilliance. Ubaldo made me look like some sort of genius is more than one league last year.

I’m thankful for…Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas. Having those two in the same lineup for many years should be really fun, and good for baseball in Kansas City. Unfortunately, it may mean that Dayton Moore keeps his job, which is not good for baseball in Kansas City.

I’m thankful for…Joel Hanrahan’s resurgence. I always felt bad for the guy after his ERA ballooned during his last year in Washington, and it was good to see his strikeout rate rise so high in Pittsburgh.

I’m thankful for…Raul Ibanez’s regression. Now we can all stop pretending he’s some sort of stud.

I’m thankful for…Cliff Lee. Watching that man pitch feels like a privilege, and the inevitability of him in pinstripes is something I’m not prepared for. Here’s hoping Nolan Ryan and Chuck Greenberg can save the day!

I’m thankful for…no impending baseball strike. With the NFL and NBA looking at lockouts next season, fantasy football and basketball enthusiasts could be tortured. Not us fantasy baseball nerds, as we’ll enjoy a long and fruitful 2011 campaign.

All that being said, what are you thankful for?