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Crowdsourcing Results: Beltre and Figgins

In this week’s edition of Crowdsourcing Results, we learn that you really don’t care about Chone Figgins.

Adrian Beltre (Average Owner, You)
My Vote: 48, 65
Average: 51.35, 60.86
Median: 50, 58
Std Dev: 18.88, 22.65

The data shows that I’m a little less inclined to pay for a third baseman who’s past his peak years then the majority of you were, but we weren’t off by much. It sounds like he’d be targeted around the 5-6 turn if you had your way, but you expect him to go about a round earlier, closer to the 4-5 turn. Beltre may be a hot name after the season he had last year and his return to the public consciousness thanks to playing for the Red Sox, and name value can be worth even more than actual production in some drafts. If Beltre takes advantage of his new digs and gets comfortable in the Rangers’ lineup, picking him at the end of the fourth or beginning of the fifth could very well be worth it.

Chone Figgins
My Vote: 10, 13
Average: 10.62, 11.13
Median: 10, 11
Std Dev: 3.58, 4.03

These results were pretty bland, and it was clear that Figgy is not all that interesting. At least according to you all. Even though we had our lowest sampling ever, the results were pretty clear. Figgins is going to be drafted as a starting second baseman (as he should), but is going to be taken too early to declare him a value. While counting on a player past his prime to bounce back after a bad year is hard, I’d bet on Figgins doing it. I definitely wouldn’t take him in the tenth unless I was desperate for steals, but I could be convinced to nab him in the eleventh or twelfth, depending on how my roster was constructed.

Next week in ADP Crowdsourcing, we take a look at Matt Garza and Jeremy Hellickson. See you then.


Fun With Catchers and Plate Appearances

Did you know that only seven catchers qualified for the major league batting title last year? 16 second basemen did, too, and they were the second-least represented group. The most amount of plate appearances accrued by a catcher was 584 by Joe Mauer. Centerfielders had the second-worst leader by PAs, and that was Denard Span with 705 plate appearances. No matter where you draft your catcher, you’ll be getting fewer opportunities to accrue counting stats from your catcher.

There are some nice catchers near the top of the rankings, and there is certainly some advantage to be gained by picking a stud at the position. The argument might go that you can rack up comparatively more plate appearances by getting one of the top six or seven guys, even if their absolute plate appearances don’t stack up against other positions. Well, we can test, this right?

When compared to the top 12 catchers by plate appearances alone, here are the comparative plate appearances that the top three catchers can provide, with 100 equaling the average for the top 12.

Joe Mauer = 115
Brian McCann = 111
Kurt Suzuki = 107

Let’s compare that to second basemen, who seem to have similar problems accruing plate appearances. The top three secondbase dudes by plate appearances:

Rickie Weeks = 114
Chone Figgins = 106
Robinson Cano = 105

Well, look at that – and I don’t mean the delicious irony that Rickie Weeks led second basemen in plate appearances. Good thing we went into this without preconceptions, because it looks like you can gain an advantage against your leaguemates by snatching up one of the catchers that comes to the plate regularly. It’s kind of crazy to think, but Jorge Posada, with his 451 plate appearances, came to the plate more often compared to his peers than Aaron Hill with his 580 plate appearances.

Of course, none of this factors in the actual projections for the catchers near the bottom of your rankings, a topic we’ll tackle later in the week.


RotoGraphs Chat – 1/7/11


Crowdsourcing Results: Posey and Santana

In this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing results, I am very happy with what we came up with.

Buster Posey
My vote: 38 (expected), 55 (you)
Average: 39, 51
Median: 40, 52.5
Std Dev: 17.7, 25.3

The biggest factor is that we think Posey will be overrated by a majority of owners. We’re expecting Posey to go in the early fourth round in most cases, and I can back that up with mock drafts I have done this offseason. In a lot of cases, we’ll see Posey go at the 3-4 turn unless those owners are averse to drafting catchers early. The second half of the question is where we’d be willing to take him, and the answer makes a ton of sense. Waiting until the middle of the fifth round to take Posey helps to mitigate some of the risks involved with drafting a young catcher by allowing you to select an extra stud beforehand in the fourth. I may not actually take him around pick 52 because I’m not one to take a catcher early unless I see tremendous value, but he slips to the late fifth or early sixth, it’d be too tempting to stay away.

Carlos Santana
My vote: 85, 72
Average: 80, 70
Median: 85, 80
Std Dev: 28.6, 25.4

Unlike Posey, it looks like we’re expecting Santana to be underrated by the majority of owners. Santana had a lot of hype early in his debut, but his brutal-looking injury made a lot of people either forget about him or simply ignore him because of the possible risks involved. Santana’s numbers from last season suggest he’ll be a top catcher if he’s healthy, possibly even ranking him alongside Posey. But the risk involved makes it harder to draft him as high as Posey will be, so taking him a couple rounds later is a safe bet. I like it, and I’d be willing to take a chance on Santana in the early seventh.


RotoGraphs Chat – 12/31/10


New Year’s Fantasy Resolutions

Ah yes, the good ol’ cliche post, the backbone of holiday blogging. The internet wouldn’t be the same without them. Anyway, in 2011 I resolve too…

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Misc. Moves: Webb, Saito, Hawpe

Here’s a quick fantasy take on some of the smaller moves from the holiday weekend…

Rangers Sign Brandon Webb

Webb was one of fantasy’s top starters from 2006 through 2008, but he’s been derailed by severe shoulder problems that have limited him to just four innings over the last two years (all coming on Opening Day 2009). It’ll be very tempting to take a flier on Webb late in your draft, but the possibility of getting zero return is very high. Even if he does come back successfully, he’s moving into a tougher league and more hitter friendly ballpark and is now on the wrong side of 30. The name is a draw, but you’re best off letting someone else roll the dice. If you want to take a late round gamble, go with a kid. Jordan Zimmermann or someone like that.

Brewers Sign Takashi Saito

Milwaukee went to great lengths to improve its pitching rotation this winter, and now they’re starting to shore up the bullpen as well. Getting Trevor Hoffman out of late-game situations will help some, as will adding Saito. The 40-year-old righty has struck out no fewer than 10.91 batters per nine innings in four of his five big league seasons and his ERA has never exceeded 2.83. Health is definitely a concern (Saito ended the 2010 season on the shelf with a shoulder issue, and he’s had elbow issues in the recent past), but he passed his physical with the Brewers and right now there’s no reason to suspect he won’t be good to go come Opening Day. John Axford figures to get the save opportunities when the season starts, but if he falters for any reason, Saito’s next in line as long as he’s healthy. In a holds leagues, he’s a must get.

Padres Sign Brad Hawpe

It’s impossible to replace a hitter the caliber of Adrian Gonzalez, but San Diego is trying to do so by improving several positions at once. They’ve already made upgrades at second base, shortstop, and in centerfield this offseason, plus they’ll also have a full season of Ryan Ludwick. Hawpe figures to platoon at first base for the Padres, limiting both his exposure to left-handers and his fantasy value. A quad strain and rib issues hampered him this past year and Petco Park will surely take a bite out of his production, but I expect him to rebound from his down 2010 campaign and be a respectable fantasy bench piece. An AVG in the .250-.275 range with double digit homers is a safe bet, and there’s always the possibility of a midseason trade boosting his value.

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Click here to submit your fan projections for Webb, Saito, and Hawpe.


RotoGraphs Chat – 12/24/10


RotoGraphs Chat – 12/17/10


Crowdsourcing Results: Cano and Lee

Here are the results from this week’s ADP Crowdsourcing, and I’m bothered by what you all had to say about Lee.

Robinson Cano
My vote: 7
Average: 7.7
Median: 7.5
Std Dev: 3.3

There isn’t much to talk about after these votes. We were all in agreement when it came to Cano, with all of us being pretty confident that he’ll go in the second half of the first round. The seventh pick is right where he deserves to go, but owners shouldn’t be blamed for getting a little bit excited and selecting him as early as fourth or fifth, because he could very well be worth it.

Cliff Lee
My vote: 40
Average: 24.8
Median: 24
Std Dev: 8.74

I’m ashamed of all of you for making me look so foolish, so I guess I need to say something about the disparity in our votes. First, in what world would owners pick Lee at the 2-3 turn? Because I’m pretty confident it’s not this one. In the small sample of mock drafts that I’ve been involved in, Lee has gone during the middle of the fourth round. Granted, these were before he chose to play in Philly, but has his value really gone up that dramatically? I seriously doubt it. He may go at the 3-4 turn, but I think you all are a good 10-12 picks off here, and even a fairly generous standard deviation doesn’t reach that mark. Like a great author once said, “I may be wrong, but I doubt it.”

This is the first time I’ve looked at the results and though y’all were just flat out wrong. What am I missing here? I desperately need voters to defend themselves in the comments, so please do so.