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I Love This Mock

I was invited to Fantasy411’s industry slow mock to open the mocking season. Now, what feels like a month later, only two picks remain. Because I love my team, I thought I’d brag about it.

The mock has some serious competitors involved. Jason Collette, Paul Sporer, Derek VanRiper, Will Carroll, Joe Sheehan, Todd Zola, Steve Gardner, Ray Flowers, Cory Schwartz, Lawr Michaels, Zach Steinhorn and Jeff Erickson were the 12 other managers, listed from last to first pick. A good gaggle of go-getters.

I had the last pick of the first round — which was fine with me. I love this team. Here are the overall results so far, but after the jump I’ll take you through my picks round by round. It’s mocking season!

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FG+ Over/Under Game: Chris Young

This week, we’ll be giving away one FG+ membership per day by playing the FG+ Over/Under Game. The wrinkle on this game is that it’s subjective: we’ll provide a player and a number, and you use the comments section to make your best argument for the over or the under. The RotoGraphs staff will pick a winner every day, and that person will get a free subscription to FG+, which includes 11 full-length fantasy strategy articles, 1100 player caps on the player pages, and ongoing access to the FG+ blog, which features the writing the FanGraphs team provides to ESPN Insider on a weekly basis all year.

For our fifth (and final) over/under game, let’s take a look at Chris Young the outfielder.

The over/under for today’s game is 21. As in, will Chris Young hit more than 21 home runs in 2012?

If you had a subscription to FG+ right now, you could consult Jeff Zimmerman’s excellent piece about playing through injuries and the effect that has on projections. And you could learn more about Young’s batted ball distance after he injured his thumb half-way through last year.

But since you don’t have Zimmerman’s research at your fingertips — and yes, I’m suggesting that current FG + subscribers take a back seat and allow those without your knowledge to compete for this — you’ll have to do the best you can to predict the number of home runs that Chris Young the outfielder will hit in the coming season. Use any methods at your disposal.

Have at it!


Auction Season is Underway

For years, Valentine’s Day meant one thing to the rest of the world (hearts and love and such things) and another to me: the final few days to prepare for my annual ottoneu auction. Then I met my wife, and suddenly those “such things” took precedence…but this year, she is in China for a couple weeks and so I returned to my roots, and spent the last few days preparing for ottoneu.

My first auction of the year commences on Sunday, as we kick off season one of the Better FanGraphs Staff League (not to be confused with the Other FanGraphs Staff League). With $400 to spend on 40 roster spots, having a solid plan in place for Sunday is going to be crucial, so at the risk of my competitors seeing what I have in mind, I am going to lay out my plan here – and next Thursday we can see how well I stuck to it.

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Relief Pitchers With Starter Eligilbity

In leagues that designate between starting pitchers and relief pitchers, and especially in leagues that use both designations and account for holds, value can be found in relief pitchers with starting pitcher eligibility. Below are a couple names to keep an eye on if you participate in these types of leagues.

Alexi Ogando

Ogando’s fantasy value is taking a huge hit after his impressive rookie season. The young-right hander is being moved to the bullpen, and will primarily be a set-up man as Joe Nathan was signed to close games for the Rangers. Ogando’s move to the bullpen does give him some value as a dual-eligible reliever though, as he will have starter pitching eligibility in drafts. He should see his performance rise, as relievers often see their earned run average decrease by about a run after transitioning from the rotation. If Ogando piles up strikeouts and pitches to an ERA in the mid-2.50 range, he could have value to a league that accounts for holds, especially since he can be assigned to either pitcher role.

Kyle McClellan

McClellan did not have the type of success in the rotation that the Cardinals hoped for when they asked him to fill in for Adam Wainwright last season. He was eventually moved out of the rotation and into the bullpen, but did not pitch to the level of effectiveness that he did in 2010. With a full-time move back into the ‘pen, the sinkerballer may be able to tally holds as a dual-eligible reliever. He is not the most effective reliever and his strikeout rate is below average, but if you have a league where you can take advantage of his holds and dual-eligibility, he could be worth a look.

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Second Base Outcomes: Reader Mock Draft

So we’ve done a pretty thorough bludgeoning of the recent reader mock draft, looking at almost every round except for the fliers, and covering several of the positions along the way as well. Second base has me particularly concerned headed into 2012, so let’s break down how the readers handled the challenge of staffing their squads at that position.

The following chart is pretty self explanatory – where the player was selected in the reader mock, what their average draft position is over at Mock Draft Central, and the difference between the two to the right:

Player Reader Mock MDC ADP Difference
Robinson Cano 6 11 -5
Dustin Pedroia 17 17  0
Ian Kinsler 28 23 5
Brandon Phillips 44 60 -16
Dan Uggla 59 53 6
Rickie Weeks 70 78 -8
Ben Zobrist 71 80 -9
Chase Utley 80 76 4
Howie Kendrick 92 107 -15
Jason Kipnis 103 162 -59
Dustin Ackley 122 134 -12
Danny Espinosa 126 149 -23
Jemile Weeks 140 152 -12
Neil Walker 145 139 6
Aaron Hill 226 310 -84
Kelly Johnson 227 329 -102
Ryan Roberts 244 197 47
Jose Altuve 274 228 46
Mike Aviles 279 339 -60
Ryan Raburn 294 346 -52
Gordon Beckham 304 318 -14
Daniel Murphy 313 289 24
Brian Roberts 320 350 -30
Alexi Casilla 329 223 106

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Shortstops: ADP’s Up In Here

It’s that time of year again; College basketball is revving up, teams are preparing for spring training and fantasy leagues are gearing up for their drafts. In preparation we’re going to be looking at some average draft positions and the trends that occur, according to mockdraftcentral.com. Today we’ll focus on shortstops. There aren’t many surprises, but there is one pick that intrigues me (more on that later). Here’s the top 10 based on a standard five by five mixed league.

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Reshuffling the Top Five

On MockDraftCentral.com, there have been more than 450 drafts completed to date, while there is plenty of disagreement on who should get taken when, there is a clear break between the top five and everyone else. The five guys atop the list are the only five to have garnered a number one overall pick (other than an over-aggressive Robinson Cano selection) and the only five who haven’t fallen outside the top 10. All five have an average draft position (ADP) below 4.75 and no one else is below 8.5.

Matt Kemp, Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Jose Bautista, and Troy Tulowitzki have established themselves as the top options in the minds of the populace. I am not one to argue with the populace, and if I had a top five pick, I would use it one of these five – but I do think the masses have drafted these five in the wrong order.

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Kicking Rocks: The Significant Other

How many times have we heard this before…?

“It’s just a stupid game.”

“I always thought I’d end up with someone who played sports, not watched them on their computer.”

“What do you mean you can’t come to my sister’s rehearsal dinner because you have a draft?”

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Figuring Fielder’s Fantasy Fallout

Prince Fielder. Dude is big and powerful and it’s not surprising that the Tigers’ signing of the younger Fielder made a large splash in the wading pool that is the American League Central right now. The splash actually covered much of the first round of next year’s fantasy drafts and impacted leagues in three key ways. Let’s enumerate.

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Seth Smith Heads West

It’s no fun when a hitter leaves Colorado. Not for the fantasy owner and, I’m sure, not for the player himself. Seriously, hitting in Coors’ Field has to be the most fun you can have as a hitter. Just ask Vinny Castilla or Dante Bichette. Unfortunately for Seth Smith he’ll no longer have that luxury as he’s now a member of the Oakland A’s.

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