Let’s look at a pair of hot cornerers for the fantasy stretch drive…

Read the rest of this entry »

I always love an under dog story and this season that love story has come in the form of Ryan Roberts. The thirty year-old has hit 5 more home runs this season than in his 5 previous MLB seasons combined. Even though a few older players finally are able to break out (see Jose Bautista), the data shows that Ryan probably won’t be one of the those players. My heart is still pulling for him though.

Ryan was drafted in 2003 by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 18th round. In 8 minor league seasons, he hit for a triple slash line of 0.274/0.373/0.448. Not shabby, but nothing to really write home about. During his minor league days he hit 96 home runs, or 1 every 33 PA. During that time frame, both of the Toronto Blue Jays and Texas Rangers released him before he ended up signing with Arizona. With Arizona he was able to get a total of 422 PA in 2009 and 2010. In the 5 seasons he saw MLB playing time, he hit for a slash line of 0.251/0.333/0.389 in 453 PA.

In 2011, not that much has changed in Ryan, except he has decided to begin hitting with more power. His slash line this season is 0.259/0.355/0.447. His AVG and OBP are nearly the same, but his SLG has increase quite a bit. It is being fueled by 15 HRs, or 1 every 26 PA. This rate is better than he did in his minor league career. This jump in home runs can further be seen in his increase in HR/FB% from a previous value of 7.1% to 12.8% this season. He is actually hitting just about the same percentage of fly balls (42.5%) compared to his career value (43.6%).

The increase in home runs could actually be from hitting the ball further this season. The following is a graph of his average batted ball distances over the past 3 years on fly balls and home runs.

It can be seen that even during this season, he is not hitting the ball as far. The previous graph almost mirrors the following graph of his ISO over the last 3 years.

I don’t see any signs of his home run power being real.

The one addition trait for Ryan is that he has stolen 14 bases in 21 attempts this season. In his previous 5 seasons, he had a total of 7 SB in 10 attempts. Thirty year-olds are not really known for their speed break outs. I would be amazed if he continued to get the green light in the future.

As much as my heart wants the journey man/late bloomer to be the real deal, the information shows that this season is pointing to a career year for Ryan and not much more. His power burst this season is hallow and he is not going to enjoy the speed numbers going forward considering his age.

Dexter Fowler (Yahoo: 24 percent owned, ESPN: 38 percent owned)

We all have our fantasy vices, guys we draft too early or hold on to too long in a vague hope they’ll fulfill their promise. Fowler is one of mine, but he finally seems to be making good on his potential. Since the All-Star break, Fowler has hit .322/.426/.522 and, seeming to answer one of the biggest knocks against him, has stolen six bases. His season line is propped up by a .377 BABIP, which would seem to scream regression, but Fowler’s career average is an already-elevated .345. So while he may still regress, the drop isn’t likely to be as steep as it may seem at first blush. Fowler is still available in most leagues and is definitely an option in NL-Only or even deep mixed.

Trayvon Robinson (Yahoo: 0 percent owned, ESPN: 1 percent owned)

Robinson is getting a lot of press lately, for being a coup for Mariners’ GM Jack Zduriencik as well as for his defensive prowess, but don’t get caught up in the buzz. The problem that Jeff Sullivan highlighted — Robinson’s high strikeout rate — looks as though it isn’t going away any time soon, as he has struck out in five of his 12 plate appearances. It’s a perilously small sample, I don’t expect him to strike out in 42 percent of his PAs going forward, but as he continues to impress in the field and hit the odd home run, consider this a call to patience. Late-round sleeper next year? Quite possibly. Good option for the last two months of this season? Unlikely.

Denard Span (Yahoo: 32 percent owned, ESPN: 32 percent owned)

This time last week, Span was breathing a sigh of relief, having survived swirling deadline rumors that had him all but signed, sealed, and delivered to the Nationals. Span came off the disabled list last Tuesday for the first time since sustaining a concussion on June 6, when he was hitting .294/.361/.385 with four steals. In his week back in the land of the healthy, Span hasn’t exactly set the world on fire with a line of .042/.080/.042 in his six games. What has been interesting is that, despite almost never having the opportunity to do so, Span swiped a pair of bases, raising his season total to six.

I can’t recommend picking up Span right now in any format; he just doesn’t yet look fully recovered at the plate. However, if the Twins are committed to giving him the green light as often as they did with Ben Revere, Span could rack up solid stolen base numbers the rest of the way — provided he can start getting on base. It should be noted that even when he’s fully healthy, Span holds far more value in OBP leagues than traditional AVG leagues.

Chase Headley (Yahoo: 26 percent owned, ESPN: 47 percent owned)

Headley looks like he’s going to miss the majority of the rest of the season with the broken left pinkie he sustained on Aug. 7. Viable replacement include Justin Turner (owned in 13 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 20 percent of ESPN leagues), Ty Wigginton (40 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 39 percent of ESPN leagues), and Danny Valencia (29 percent of Yahoo! leagues and 50 percent of ESPN leagues). Valencia had a strong month of July (.303/.336/.468 with 4 HR), but has just six singles so far in August. Wigginton is hitting well so far, .316/.418/.439 since the break and .412/.545/.588 in August, and may be the best short-term option to replace Headley if he’s available to you.

The Toronto Blue Jays promoted third basemen Brett Lawrie from Triple-A Las Vegas yesterday, putting a Larry Walker sized weight on the Canadian born 21 year old’s shoulders. That isn’t to say he’ll be expected to be as good as Walker. He just happens to be the best Candian born player to debut for a Canadian team since Walker with the Expos in 1989.

Not only does Lawrie have the pressure of being the home country kid, he also was the main piece the Blue Jays got in return for trading Shaun Marcum to the Brewers. Marcum was a fan favorite and has continued to put up excellent numbers (3.66 xFIP) for his new team. Lawrie won’t be tarred and feathered if he has a sub-par two months, but he does have lofty expectations bestowed upon him. That being said, what can we expect from him going forward?

Looking at Lawrie’s .353/.415/.661 line at Triple-A without any context makes it seem far more impressive than it is, despite being young for the level. The Jays Triple-A affiliate plays in Las Vegas, one of the best hitters’ parks in the minors. It has a 115 HR park factor for right handed hitters. That’s basically the equivalent of Yankee Stadium to left handed batters. He had a .308 ISO at Vegas, and no matter how good of a hitter’s park Rogers Centre is he won’t come close to that figure. Being that he is just 21 years old I’m not comfortable telling you to take his A (.362 wOBA) and AA (.361) numbers as an indication of his true talent level. That said, he likely falls between those two numbers and his current .459 wOBA. Kids, especially top prospects, can improve greatly in a short period of time.

Lawrie had a preseason ZiPS projection of .254/.309/.400. If his current numbers were factored into that I imagine that triple slash line would improve. Currently the American League average is .256/.322/.401. That should be easily attainable for Lawrie. Third base hasn’t been a very deep position this season so any added production is welcomed. He’s almost certainly an instant upgrade over players like Casey McGehee (all three homer games aside), Danny Valencia or Placido Polanco. Jose Bautista will be shifting back to right field, with Eric Thames moving to left.

The call up of Lawrie means the demotion of Travis Snider. For all his minor league success – he has SMASHED Triple-A pitching – he hasn’t been able to figure it out in the major leagues. He has a career slash line of .248/.307/.423 in 877 plate appearances. His power is vanished, dropping from a .208 ISO in 2010 to just .123 this season. Hopefully, for his sake and Toronto’s, he’s able to figure things out back in Las Vegas.

The trading deadline is behind us and we’re knocking on the door of the stretch run. Somehow, it’s already August. And it was just a few short months ago that Evan Longoria was the consensus #1 third baseman and just a couple months ago that Aramis Ramirez appeared to have lost his eyesight. It’s been said more than once on this platform that the one constant is change, so with that in mind, I give you the updated third base rankings for August.

Read the rest of this entry »

As you’re tweaking your lineup here and there, looking for a way to steal some points from your opponents, check out how adding some stolen bases to your squad can help you out.  It always seems to be a very movable category in roto leagues and an often disregarded category in head to head.  Adding an extra stolen base guy can give you a nice cheap way to to boost you in the category while also helping you out in areas like runs scored and even batting average.  Here’s a pair of speedsters that seem to be available in plenty of leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

It has been just about a year since Jhonny Peralta was dealt from the Cleveland Indians to the Detroit Tigers. It was July 28th, 2010, and Peralta was continuing his slide from the previous season where he saw his production fall in every meaningful category. His work ethic and conditioning were often criticized and given that his listed weight had gone from 180 pounds to a suck-in-your-tummy 215, his future at shortstop seemed rather dubious.

Cleveland had decided that Peralta wasn’t going to be worth the $7.25 million option they had on him for 2011 and the Tigers decided that having half their team on the trainers table wasn’t getting them any closer to a pennant. And thus, the “other” Giovanni Soto was sent to Cleveland for an underwhelming Peralta, hitting just .246 with seven home runs over 91 games. The general reaction was a bit of a shrug of the shoulders.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a one week hiatus, I’m continuing to look at players who have been busts in ottoneu fangraphs points fantasy baseball leagues.  It uses the same model described in this post, although the values have been updated based on year to date statistics.

Second Base

My Pick: Dan Uggla

Read the rest of this entry »

Scott Rolen found himself riding pine for the second consecutive day yesterday and the narrative out there is that Dusty Baker thinks he is playing through a sore shoulder, so he’s simply making the decisions for him. But Rolen, 36, has probably been playing with a sore shoulder for the better part of a decade, so reading the proverbial tea leaves makes the fantasy owner wonder if this “rest” has more to do with his recent ineptitude at the dish. While he’s surely going to return to the lineup soon, considering a triple slash line of .242/.279/.399, you have to wonder if there’s more unscheduled rest in his future.

Read the rest of this entry »

Just when you were getting used to the “new normal,” it normalizes on you.

A lot has been written about Mark Reynolds this year, and rightly so, as he’s had one of the more head-scratching performances of the season. Back in May, he looked like he was on a “designated for assignment” path as he was hitting 9th in the batting order and every single one of his offensive statistics were just laughable. Many people pointed to his increase in walks and decrease in strikeouts as improvement and yet the results only got worse.

In an earlier post, I observed that pitchers seemed to have changed their repertoire versus Reynolds, that he was having somewhat rotten luck on batted balls, and that he was struggling mightily versus left handed pitchers, and I’d like to revisit both charts, as well as delve into the remarkable turnaround he’s seen in the last two months.

Read the rest of this entry »