We are all familiar with the practice of buying low. Over the first couple of months of the season, nearly all of my trade offers involve attempting to acquire a player who has started off slowly. But have you ever bought high? Did the thought even cross your mind to target Jose Bautista in 2010 after he finished the month of May with 16 home runs? Probably not. But sometimes it could be a good idea because the other owner may be thinking he is selling high and you still get the player for cheaper then he is ultimately worth. But of course, this is a much riskier type of trade and so most shy away from it. If you have the cajones, here are some players who may be worth buying high.

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The Washington Nationals have been on a roll, and at 38-27, they stand atop the National League East by three games. They’ve done it largely on the backs of their starting rotation, who own the best ERA and FIP in baseball at 2.97 and 3.16, respectively. Because of their success, a certain star third baseman has been able to rather quietly attempt to work through his struggles.

But at some point in the season, the Washington Nationals are going to very much need Ryan Zimmerman to start resembling any close approximation to his former self if they’re going to be serious about winning their division. And right now, Zimmerman looks absolutely lost at the plate.

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So he’s a third baseman who doesn’t wear a cup, he can deliver unmatched death stares to teammates, he’ll freak out if you touch his head, he likes to appeal his own check swings to the first base umpire, and he frequently drops to one knee when crushing a pitch. For these and for many other reasons, Adrian Beltre is just a lot of fun to root for.

On top of it all, he’s been a terrific third baseman in fantasy baseball circles as a player you can rely on for a plus batting average, great power, and tons of RBI. But there’s been an interesting trend in 2012 that might be a short-term quirk, or perhaps a sign of a problem going forward.

Beltre owns a current slash line of .296/.325/.483 with ten home runs, 30 runs scored, and 37 RBI, so he’s performed as most would have expected on the season. But his last couple of weeks haven’t been at all useful to fantasy owners. Since May 28th, Beltre his hitting .233/.292/.283 with no home runs and just three doubles over 65 plate appearances, and he’s struck out 16 times. His BABIP during that period is fully .318, so he’s actually getting lucky bounces right now. This is, of course, a small sample and it’s likely to register on the spectrum of what goes up must come down. Still, there are a couple of other interesting tidbits to be aware of.

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Maybe my perception is off, but the fantasy options at third base are stacked right now. Cabrera, Wright, Longoria, Hanley Ramirez, A-Rod, Beltre, Brett Lawrie, and his teammate Jose Bautista are a formidable group. At some point in the next year or two a slew of third base prospects with huge potential will ascend to the major leagues, I’m talking about Nick Castellanos, Mike Olt and Nolan Arenado. Since I was able to see each of these guys this week there wasn’t a better time to write them up for your reading pleasure.

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Let’s face it, the waiver wire is looking pretty bleak these days.  Obviously if you’re in a real shallow league of eight to ten teams, there are always guys worthy of picking up even for just a week or so.  But the deeper your league gets the worse it looks out there and as writers trying to suggest a worthwhile pick-up, it can often be difficult.  So now that I threw that caveat out there, here are two guys that probably aren’t bad enough that they could contribute as a possible fill-in for you while your guy maybe nurses a sore hamstring or is mired in some sort of multi-week slump. Read the rest of this entry »

Brett Lawrie has been a bit of a disappointment. His performance hasn’t been awful, but he hasn’t lived up to expectations, either. Last season, Lawrie hit .293/.373/.580 in just 171 plate appearances, vaulting him up the fantasy ranks. For a player that many owners drafted between the fourth and sixth rounds, Lawrie’s .272/.315/.369 slash line isn’t offering much value. Unless Lawrie can improve on his current performance, it’s time to start wondering whether he’s still worth starting in shallow leagues.

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We’re about a third of the way through the season, and while the proverbial gloves aren’t going to come off, I think I’ll stop coddling some and for others, I’ll be giving credit where credit is due. I wouldn’t say this is a “if the draft were held today” kind of list, but perhaps some amalgam of ranking based on current performance and anticipated performance for the rest of the season. I’ll do my best to tease out a rationale for the higher tiers.

The top tier of third basemen has historically been quite small, in large part due to the dearth of real superstars at the position. But since Jose Bautista has been acting like he might actually be mortal, it’s left room for some others to join him at the top.

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Two years ago, when Jose Bautista was enjoying his 50 HR breakout, I was enjoying slotting him in to my lineup on a daily basis in the original ottoneu league. A $1 in-season auction pickup, Joey Bats anchored my last championship team before getting voted off through the off-season arbitration process. He was a stalwart for me again last year, but this April was a different story.

May has been better, but has Bautista turned a corner or had the pauper-turned-prince turned back again?

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The Colorado Rockies’ record stands at 21-29. They are 11 games back of the division leading Los Angeles Dodgers. They’ve just put their star Troy Tulowitzki on the disabled list and recently designated for assignment the warm-the-cockles-of-your-heart story, Jamie Moyer. The latter move is ostensibly to to keep space available for Christian Friedrich or Drew Pomeranz when Jorge de la Rosa ultimately returns.

The Rockies would need to go 69-43 for the remainder of the season, a .620 winning percentage, in order to get to 90 wins. 65-47 for 86 wins, if you think that would do the trick for the second wild card, which would mean a .580 win percentage from here on out. Neither are particularly likely.

So the move towards youth might be on (or on the close horizon) and the next logical place to look for the Rockies has to be third base.

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Today’s waiver wire looks at two hitters who are beneficiaries of injuries. Every year, a large percentage of surprise performances happen as a result of increased playing time, rather than any change in skill. These players are typically undervalued because they have never played full-time and therefore don’t have the history of counting stats to attract fantasy owners or instill the confidence that they could maintain their skills over every day at-bats.

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