Tying for the second most number of votes for a full Pod Projection was Blue Jays third sacker Brett Lawrie. After sky high expectations resulting from an exciting debut that mixed power and speed, the sophomore seriously disappointed in his full season follow-up. Lawrie missed a month of action due to an oblique injury and missed time here and there due to various other nicks and bruises. You have to wonder how healthy he was all season and if those issues affected his performance. This is just another example of why projecting player performance is so difficult. We have to speculate about injuries and their effects and we may never know if we were correct.

Read the rest of this entry »

Edit: It should be noted that several players listed below were not drafted with the intention of making them primary third basemen. Mike Petriello grabbed both Headley and Trumbo, and I took Ryan Zimmerman early, then both Freese and Scutaro later on as my CI/MI players. Machado was picked up by Jeff Zimmerman, who already had Hanley who could play either SS or 3B. 

Even after the decline of two staples at third base in Kevin Youkilis and Alex Rodriguez, the position is stronger — not to mention deeper — than I would have imagined. After 15 rounds, there has been a total of 16 third base eligible players taken in The RotoGraphs Ridiculously Early Mock Draft. For the 2013 season, it appears as though the third base position will be offer a wide range of choices for fantasy managers. There are plenty of early round/big money picks as well as more than a few mid and late round options. Read the rest of this entry »

Chase Headley may have churned out the most surprising performance in baseball last season. While Headley was regarded as a decent third baseman in past seasons, he provided little power at his position. That changed drastically in 2012. Headley mashed 31 home runs despite playing half his games in a stadium that severely limits power. There were rumors that the San Diego Padres could make Headley available during the offseason, but the team vehemently denied they would entertain the possibility. With the team re-signing veterans Carlos Quentin and Huston Street, they seem to think they can compete for the division relatively soon. In order to do that, they’ll need Headley to sustain his offensive gains.

Read the rest of this entry »

Edwin Encarnacion had a breakout that few predicted and he carried many a fantasy team with Pujolsian-like production for bargain basement prices. Since this is kind of what we do — that is, try to sniff out those back-of-the-draft goodies — one has to wonder if we all should have seen this coming.

Perhaps the reason Encarnacion gnaws at me so much is because I wrote his FanGraphs+ profile last year, and had this to say:

“…(B)ut if Encarnacion is going to play every day and he gets into the 550 at-bat range, you can bank on 20+ home runs, 70 RBI, and he should provide at least a respectable batting average. About 45% of his batted balls are fly balls, and his home run per fly ball rate dipped to 9.4% in 2011 whereas his career average is 11.9%. Should he see an uptick in HR/FB and his isolated slugging returns closer to his .200 career level (.181 in 2011), there’s certainly potential for more home runs here.”

So yeah, 20+ cough cough. At least I said “+”.

Read the rest of this entry »

Looking at the recent ridiculously early mock draft from a stony selection of the Rotographs raconteurs, I was A) quite pleased that I didn’t participate and subject myself to the scrutiny of the learned readers here and B) struck by the fact that third base continues to give me the heebee jeebees.

Third base has generally been my beat over the last twelve months for Rotographs and the implications of the 2012 season haven’t helped me rest well when thinking about the hot corner. While this year might welcome Chase Headley to the fantasy super-duper we also saw the departure of Jose Bautista due to eligibility, Kevin Youkilis due to Kevin Youkilis, Alex Rodriguez to the girl in the fourth row, and Michael Young to relevance.

And this gives me pause.

Read the rest of this entry »

In our Ridiculously Early Mock Draft — still ongoing — my first two picks ‘around the turn’ were Troy Tulowitzki and Adrian Beltre. But Evan Longoria went one pick later and I was ready to take the down on their luck pair. A year ago, that duo would have been deemed a coup, most likely — a right side of the infield filled with sixty home runs and twenty-plus stolen bases and a good batting average. This year, the picks were met with critique.

As the “Two Month Tulo” moniker from that comment suggests, most of the problem is health-related. Though the Tulo and Longo are 28 and 27 years old respectively, there’s a sense that perhaps the projections are too plate-appearance heavy for two guys that have succumbed to major injuries in multiple seasons over their young careers to date. Health does seem like a skill, but because of the way projections work, it’s a skill that should be factored into every projection you see.

Read the rest of this entry »

**Merry Christmas to those who celebrate the light-filled holiday! I am a Jew, and as a result, will be fitting the stereotype to a T, going to a movie followed by a delicious Chinese dinner.

A couple of weeks ago, free agent slugger Mark Reynolds signed a one-year deal with the Cleveland Indians to man first base on a full-time basis. He’s coming off a disappointing season that saw a drop in power that came along with the usual horrid batting average. Oriole Park at Camden Yards had always had a bandbox perception, while Progressive Field in Cleveland has typically been thought of a pitcher’s park, but never mentioned in the same breath as other extreme pitcher’s parks. Based strictly on perception, the ballpark switch is going to hurt Reyndolds’ chances of a rebound. Let’s see what the data says.

Read the rest of this entry »

With Kevin Youkilis headed out the door and the third baseman market looking pretty bleak, the Chicago White Sox opted to go for the relatively cheap but always reliable Jeff Keppinger to fill their vacancy at the hot corner for 2013. He got a three-year deal worth roughly $12 million and word has it that his final decision was based on the fact that he was guaranteed a starting job as opposed to keeping a spot warm for someone else, as would have been the case with the Yankees. So what does this move to the Leroy Brown’s neighborhood do for Keppinger’s fantasy value? Is he worth drafting? Read the rest of this entry »

Shameless self promotion: I felt it necessary to announce that I have finally joined this thing called Twitter. Okay, so it’s not exactly new to me, as I have multiple business accounts, but never felt the need for a personal one. So yeah, for you Twitterers reading this, follow me @MikePodhorzer if you dare. I’ll try to be entertaining (twittertaining?).

It doesn’t feel too long ago that Alex Gordon was one of the most hyped prospects of the moment, vaulted from a fantastic season at Double-A in 2006, and then wOBA’d a somewhat disappointing .316 during his rookie campaign. Nearly all of his improvement in his sophomore season came from a jump in walk rate, as his minor league patience finally translated. Then he stunk it up and received all of 406 at-bats (also partly due to a hip injury) over the following two years. In 2011, the long awaited breakout finally arrived. Then he took a step back this season and we’re back questioning who exactly is Alex Gordon?

Read the rest of this entry »

One of the most exciting times of the off-season is when the first projection set is released. We now have the Bill James system on the player pages for our analyzational (I like making up words) pleasure. One of the most difficult things us fantasy owners have to figure out every year is what to expect from the past season’s biggest surprises. So, let’s take a look at four of this year’s most surprising hitters, both on the positive side and the negative side, and examine each of their early projections.

Read the rest of this entry »