Let’s start this off by saying that the biggest aberration in terms of fantasy production that Martin Prado will probably ever have is his 2012 season. I would put a good deal of money on him never stealing 17+ bases again in his life.
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While Matt Harvey’s Tommy John surgery has Mets fans looking ahead to 2015 for the next signs of competitive postseason baseball, fantasy owners needn’t wait so long, at least so far as New York’s infield is concerned. With a near-elite option holding down the hot corner and a couple of intriguing upside artists elsewhere, the Mets offer help at some typically hard-to-fill fantasy positions – at prices that may be bargains come draft day.
The Marlins haven’t made the playoffs in a decade or had a winning season since 2009; morever, their record has declined every season since they last broke even, culminating in a 100-loss season last year in spite of the presence of feared slugger Giancarlo Stanton and a solid pitching staff led by phenom Jose Fernandez. The spell of losing understandably puts pressure on Miami’s farm system to produce, and one member of their organization upon whom a considerable amount rests is 2013 first-rounder Colin Moran. A highly-touted college third baseman out of UNC, Moran was selected sixth overall in the past draft and was polished enough to immediately flirt with the .300 mark in full-season ball; he also was deemed polished enough for the Arizona Fall League after just 42 games of professional experience. In this piece, I’ll look at how Moran projects and if he can eventually help a Marlins team that hit just .231/.293/.335 this past season.
Smarter minds than mine have addressed the Indians experimenting with Carlos Santana at 3B, but those minds have looked at things like “defense” and “what the Indians need” and “does this make any sense at all.”
But you and I, we are fantasy players and care not for defensive deficiencies or displaced utility infielders. What we care about is whether or not Carlos Santana playing 3B impacts his fantasy value.
Think about the Giants’ infield, and inevitably you wonder if the large mound at third can rebound from a disastrous year at the plate. Of course, there’s a breakout candidate at first base, and two deep leaguers up the middle, but you can’t help thinking about Pablo Sandoval first.
With Miguel Cabrera heading back across the diamond to first base, Nick Castellanos is returning from the outfield to his natural position at the hot corner. When the Tigers brought in Prince Fielder, it appeared that Castellanos was completely blocked at the major-league level, so the Tigers tried to transition the 21-year-old to the outfield. With Fielder gone, that problem is a thing of the past.
There’s plenty to like about Castellanos, the top prospect in Detroit’s organization. His bat is very quick through the zone, and there’s never been much of a question among scouts about the quality of his hit tool. His power stroke is showing signs of life, as he has increased his home run total in each of his three full minor-league seasons; he hit seven homers in A-ball in 2011, 11 across three levels in 2012 and 18 in Triple-A last year. Another big positive for Castellanos is the improvement in his contact rate. He struck out in 23.1% of his plate appearances in 2011, followed by 20.2% in 2012 and 16.8% last year.
Although the RotoGraphs team recapped the third base position a few weeks ago, Todd Frazier didn’t receive his due attention, so it seemed prudent to give him ample space in our discussion on outfielders — the only other position he played last season. The New Jersey native was a popular sleeper pick after posting a solid .354 wOBA (8th amongst third basemen with 400+ PA) with 19 home runs and finishing third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2012.
Unfortunately, Frazier delivered a disappointing sophomore campaign this year. His batting average plummeted to a mere .234, his wOBA dropped to .319, and his home run numbers remained stagnant despite roughly 150 more plate appearances. Barely checking in ahead of D.J. LeMahieu, Juan Uribe and Matt Dominguez, the 27-year-old ranked as the 17th-best fantasy third baseman. That’s a far cry from where many fantasy owners expected him to be ranked at the end of the season.
Some fantasy analysts have pointed to the severe drop in BABIP from .316 to .269 in 2012 and 2013, respectively, as the main reason for Frazier’s decreased value. They’ve pointed to the increased walk rate, the decreased strikeout rate, the decreased swinging-strike rate and even to the fact that he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone in 2013. All good things, certainly, but I’m not ready to jump aboard the BABIP train and simply explain away his struggles this year to mere random variation. That’s too simplistic and misses a key reason why his power and batting average dropped this season.
Jurickson Profar finally got some decent time in the majors during the 2013 season because of an Ian Kinsler injury. Plenty of hype surrounded the 20-year-old since he was a generally considered the game’s top prospect going into last season. He is still a young with plenty of room for growth, but I am worried about speed limiting his fantasy potential.
Before I delve into the numbers, all of Profar’s value will hinge on his playing time. Last season, the best prospect in baseball didn’t have a position with Ian Kinsler at second and Elvis Andrus at shortstop. The lack of an everyday position never opened up until Kinsler got hurt. Once Profar was given a chance to start, he didn’t exactly excel at the plate. He hit .234/.308/.336 with 6 HR and 2 SB. Most of the switch hitter’s struggles came against left-handed pitchers with a .188/.291/.250 line.
Note: Trevor Plouffe ranked as the No. 28 third baseman on Zach Sanders’ 2013 rankings.
Let’s first dish out some indisputable truth: the entire premise of owning Trevor Plouffe centers around a ridiculous stretch he had in the early summer nights of 2012.
Plouffe hit half of his home runs that season between June 8 and July 3, a span of about three-and-a-half weeks. In that time frame, he hit .330/.398/.791, with 18 of his 30 hits over that span going for extra bases. Read the rest of this entry »
Wouldn’t it be better if every rookie debuted like Mike Trout or Bryce Harper? Major League Baseball would always have this exciting new crop of game-breaking superstars and we fantasy baseball owners would never have to worry about whether a strong debut was just a fluke performance. Unfortunately, that’s not the way it works and when we look at some youngster’s successful rookie campaign, we still have to sift through a variety of things to determine whether he’s worth the attention next year or not. So goes life for those whose interest has been piqued by Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado. On the surface, there’s not much that excites a fantasy owner about a .267-10-52 batting line for a corner infielder, especially coming from someone playing half his games in Coors Field. But considering the 22-year old produced that line after basically making the jump straight from Double-A ball (he played just 18 games at Triple-A to open 2013), he deserves another look as he enters 2014 with the job in-hand. Read the rest of this entry »
