Coming into the 2017 campaign, Ryon Healy was a popular topic of conversation on an Oakland Athletics squad that ultimately doesn’t have a lot to be said for it. A sleeper candidate before the year began, some of the shine has since fallen off of Healy thanks to a slow start. Ranking 19th out of 24 qualifying third basemen in WAR probably doesn’t help his case, either.

Having shaken off that rough start, however, and taking his questionable defense out of the equation, Healy is not only a player that stacks up well against his counterparts at the hot corner, but is meeting the expectations previously set forth for him. An offense-first, or perhaps an offense-only, type, Healy will continue to see time at third base, especially with the trade of Trevor Plouffe, while also filling in at first behind Yonder Alonso. And while he likely hasn’t done enough to establish himself as a fantasy starter outside of deeper leagues, he’s a versatile (in a fantasy sense) with a lot going for him at the plate. And by “a lot”, I mean a lot of power.

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I’ve always been a fan of Josh Harrison. It’s probably because I’m a fan of those superutility types, regardless of their actual ability to play all of the positions at which they appear. Nonetheless, there’s a certainly level of validation that comes along with actively cheering for Harrison this season. Despite the plight of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Harrison has been a steady performer to the point where WAR has him valued near the top of this year’s qualifying third basemen. It’s certainly worth exploring, though, if Harrison’s ascent in 2017 is legitimate, or if we should see him slip back down to the level of production that we’ve come to expect from him thanks to the past couple of seasons.

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Manny Machado has been in a slump. That feels like an understatement. Over the past month he’s been one of the weakest hitters in the game, managing only .261 wOBA and 56 wRC+. This value is buoyed by six home runs, which account for 27% of his hits in the month of May. This is one of the worst stretches of his career, if not the worst. Notably, he had a rough patch to begin the 2015 season, but that period only lasted two, perhaps three weeks. It also had a reason, Machado had missed the final 80 games of 2014 while recovering from knee surgery. This year, though. This is different.

There are no obvious signs of problems with Machado.  By all accounts his mechanics seem fine and he appears to be healthy. There could be psychological issues at play and many have used the term ‘pressing’ to describe Machado. Unfortunately there is a possibility that the feud with the Red Sox and the resulting beanings and attempted beanings may have played some role in his slump, although that seems like a bit of a stretch.  None of these explanations are satisfactory, and they raise more questions than they answer.

Today I’m going to look at this slump in a slightly different manner, and hopefully highlight a few measurements and stats along the way that will spark your imagination. As usual, this piece is less about Manny Machado, and more about approaching baseball from a different perspective. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve written about Jose Ramirez a couple of times since the tailend of last year, and there were a lot of notable things that I enjoyed about his game. There’s something fun about a high contact guy who runs the bases well, which is primarily what many, including myself, expected Ramirez to continue to be. With mixed results prior to 2016, many also wondered if we should expect legitimate production from the Cleveland third sacker heading into a new campaign. But not only has Jose Ramirez continued to perform at a high level, but as Eno Sarris noted at the beginning of May, he’s changed our perception of him as well, with his increased launch angle contributing in a variety of ways.

Ramirez did a lot in 2016 that kind of led us to believe that we knew what to expect from him heading into this 2017 season, assuming that he continued to perform at a level that was consistent with what he turned in last year. His final numbers at the end of the year featured the following:

That’s obviously an extraordinarily small picture of his 2016, but even so, there’s still a lot to like about that. Despite having one of the lowest walk rates among qualifying third basemen, he posted the highest contact rate among that same group. Even if the contact wasn’t particularly hard, his ability to run the bases (6.9 UBR led the position) helped to contribute to that .363 on-base clip, as well as the 22 swipes he posted.

High-contact, high-OBP, and some speed on the bases. Even if he didn’t stack up against the elite at the hot corner, there’s still value in a skill set like that. When you factor in the versatility that he brought to the mix last year, something that isn’t quite as prevalent this season, you can understand why he was an intriguing option heading into the new season.

All Ramirez has done is take that intrigue and turn it into more legitimacy than anyone could have expected:

He’s still reaching base a high rate, while maintaining a similar approach in terms of Swing%. The contact rate is still there and even if the strikeout rate is up a touch, the walk rate has come with it. One additional note is that his park-adjusted offense, by virtue of wRC+, has increased from 122 to 129. What’s particularly interesting there is that ISO. A 53 point rise in ISO is pretty significant, with Ramirez already four shy of the 11 homers he hit last year and one short of his triple total from 2016. This was an element that Eno focused on in the piece linked above, with launch angle playing a heavy role in the evolution of Jose Ramirez in 2017.

The ball is definitely finding its way into the air more often. Combine the increased hard hit rate with the increase in balls in the air, and the ISO is easily explainable. It’s also probably important to note that the increase in power is primarily taking place when Ramirez is swinging lefty, where he has an ISO of .252, against a .119 mark from the right-handed batter’s box. Last year, the trend was opposite, with his higher ISO coming against left-handed pitching in 2016. Nonetheless, the results this year make this heatmap into not much of a surprise:

Another thing that this graph contributes to is Ramirez’s decrease in Oppo%. His percentage of contact to the opposite field against right-handed pitching is just 20.0% this season, as opposed to the 30.4% mark that he posted last year. Interestingly enough, his Oppo% against left-handed pitching has actually increased about three percent, currently sitting at 26.3%.

Is it possible that Ramirez is a different hitter depending on the batter’s box in which he stands?

Not necessarily. The power is coming from the left-handed box. That’s the largest difference. But he’s still making really strong contact that shows improvement from last year, with his Hard% against left-handed pitching showing an increase of almost 10%. The evolution of Ramirez from 2016 to 2017 is really one that has taken place across the board, regardless of his handedness in a particular plate appearance.

Ramirez has remained the steady on-base presence that he was last year. He’s still swinging at a decent rate while making high contact. What he’s doing differently this year is making harder contact and generating far more balls in the air. With that combination, he’s finding his way into the ISO column more often. He’s gone from a high-contact, speed type to a high-contact, speed type with legitimate power at the plate.

Given that this is a change that has only been in development for really the first two months of the season, though, it’ll be interesting to see how it continues to evolve as the season wears on. Expect us to revisit Ramirez, his power, and his splits before the season comes to a close.

As a Marwin Gonzalez owner, I’ve considered writing about him several times over the season’s first two months. I took a $1 flier on him in a 4×4 ottoneu Classic league this offseason, and at the time my expectations could be roughly summarized as “There’s worse ways to fill out a roster.” In most fantasy formats, Marwin qualifies at every position except pitcher and catcher, and he was coming off a season that saw him produce 25 HR+SB. Like I said, there’s worse ways to spend a dollar on a bench player.

Every time I’ve thought previously about writing up Marwin this year, I got hung up on the fact that I had absolutely no idea if his breakout was for real, or if it was just a fluky hot start. Actually, if I’m being completely honest, the whole reason I decided to write this piece you’re currently reading is because I still don’t know. In the following paragraphs, I invite you to join me as I take a stab at figuring out Marwin Gonzalez.

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In the unlikely event that you follow me on Twitter dot com, you’re well aware of my…we’ll call it infatuation with Jake Lamb and his penchant for murdering baseballs. I’ve made no secret of it on here as well, which is why I went back and saw just how many times I had written about him in the last year, just to make sure that I wasn’t oversaturating the site with too much Lamb content. Luckily, I’ve only written about him once in 2017, so I feel comfortable discussing what has been an absolutely remarkable last month for the Arizona Diamondbacks third sacker.

The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to a hot start on the offensive side, ranking in the top five in Major League Baseball in batting average, isolated power, and, more obviously, runs, while ranking eighth overall in on-base percentage. Lamb’s quick start is a heavy reason why, as he’s not only managed to duplicate his extremely impressive start from last season, but eclipse his output in numerous ways. This May has been something of a microcosm of the type of player that Lamb has shown flashes of becoming over the past calendar year.

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Miguel Sano has been an absolute terror at the plate this season. Sure, there are flaws in his game and those may never go away. But the early results have been tremendous for a guy who seems to do nothing but crush every baseball that he comes into contact with.

Sano has gotten off to a stellar start for a Minnesota Twins squad that doesn’t look all that bad. His slash features an average at an even .300, while he’s reaching base at a .431 clip. Obviously a .440 batting average on balls in play tends to aid you in those aspects, but when you’re hitting the ball as hard as he is, something we’ll touch on in a moment, that number is always going to remain high. It all culminates in a park-adjusted offense of 190, which ranks at the top of the third base group by 23 points.

The approach hasn’t necessarily improved, but remained constant from last year into 2017. His Swing%, at 42.6%, is only 1.6% higher than it was last year. He’s seeing 4.24 pitches per plate appearance, a figure identical to that of 2016. His whiff rate is still higher than you’d like, at 14.3%, but it’s only 0.3% higher than last year. Brooks has him swinging at just about the same amount of each pitch type as he did last year.

And with the minimal change in those figures, his contact rate has also remained almost identical across the two seasons. His 65.9% contact rate isn’t terrific and represents a 0.1% increase from the previous year. When you factor in the notable improvements in his health, it becomes far less surprising that he’s managed to graduate from a wRC+ of 107 to the 190 mark he’s posted thus far in 2017. When he’s run into balls, he’s doing some major damage to a point that no other hitter in baseball can really touch at this point.

Despite a high strikeout rate (34.1%) and that high swinging strike percentage, Sano is making hard contact at an absurdly high rate. Nick Castellanos is the only player in baseball with a higher percentage of hard hit balls this year, as Sano currently sits at a 53.5% Hard%. He’s making soft contact at a rate of 1.7%. Read that again. That’s absolute nonsense. Baseball Savant has Sano averaging 98.9 MPH in terms of exit velocity. That’s easily the highest in all of baseball. When you combine that with his high launch angle tendencies, this guy has the potential to be a fantasy owner’s absolute dream over the course of a full season.

In fact, Sano has already showcased a dip in his groundball numbers. His 29.3% GB rate represents a five percent decrease and ranks 176th among 183 qualifying Major League hitters. As such, his 28.6% HR/FB ratio ranks third at the position, trailing only Joey Gallo and Jake Lamb, which isn’t terribly surprising given the power tendencies of each individual in their own right. Especially Jake Lamb. Because we all know how I feel about Jake Lamb. That penchant for making obscenely hard contact, while constantly putting the ball in the air, is going to continue to benefit Sano greatly. Especially if he can maintain the respectable 22.4% linedrive rate that he’s posted to this point.

There are obvious drawbacks to his game. He’s prone to strikeouts, which is nothing new at this point, and he is susceptible to whiffs low in the zone, particularly on the outer half of the plate. However, if he can continue to demonstrate improvements in his walk rate (18.7% BB rate is almost an eight percent increase from last year), he becomes that much more valuable.

It’s hard not to fall in love immediately with a player like Miguel Sano. Players with obscene power are always a treat to watch and particularly intriguing on the fantasy side. The strikeouts are always going to be there and represent one of the larger drawbacks of his game. However, with the ability to make this kind of contact and the power that he possesses, a healthy Miguel Sano is going to be an absolute joy to continue to watch develop out of the hot corner moving forward.

I was going to use the opportunity for my weekly content here to talk about Jake Lamb and his 481-foot home run, but I didn’t want to oversaturate the third base column with more Lamb material than I’ve already indulged myself in the past several months. Even if he is extremely noteworthy these days. Instead, let’s talk about one of his National League West counterparts: Justin Turner.

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It’s time to understand how ownership trends are playing out this year. I will start by breaking down one of the most common fantasy sites, ESPN. I will go over the batter ownership rates for different league sizes so owners know which players are applicable to them. Additionally, I will find the current replacement level player for each position.

With fantasy experts using ownership rates to help find potential waiver targets, it is important to know each league’s ownership level. Historically, I know I should only worry about players owned in 10% of leagues or less but not everyone plays in 15-team or deeper leagues.

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I’m nothing if not consistent. As we close in on the end of the season’s first month, I figured it’d be pertinent to review the early performance of one of the more intriguing players the third base position has to offer in Jake Lamb. That intrigue stems from a tremendously strong start last year, followed by a notably terrible decline that was largely attributed to injuries (as well as perhaps a lack of trust vs. left-handed pitching from his former manager).

The Arizona Diamondbacks are off to a strong start, and while their pitching is still relatively suspect, it’s hard not to love what they bring to the mix on offense. Serving as an offensive catalyst for the Snakes is their third sacker, in Jake Lamb. Lamb has followed up what was a strong start to the 2016 campaign with a rebound from last year’s second half, looking to showcase himself as a valuable entity not only to the Diamondbacks, but also as a fantasy entity at one of the corner spots.

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