Last night, the RotoGraphs crew got together and conducted our first mock draft of the season. The draft, held at Mock Draft Central, was a standard 5X5 keeper/dynasty league draft. Rosters requirements were as follows: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, CI, MI, UTIL, 9 P, 5 BENCH. Throughout the week, we’ll have articles analyzing the draft. I’ll kick things off with my thoughts about the first couple of rounds.
We FanGraphers decided we couldn’t wait any longer. Why wait until March when you could draft NOW?! Not only did we mock it up last night, but we assumed a keeper league. WOAH. We gathered 12 of our most intelligent, hilarious and handsome writers, used standard roster sizes minus one catcher and drafted five reserves. I know you are dying to find out how the action unfolded, but before I begin the process of unveiling the winning team (mine, obviously), I will share my keeper league philosophy/strategy for the draft.
C.J. Wilson is headed from the 2011 American League Champs to the 2011 American League West Division Runners-up (somehow, I don’t think they will be raising that last banner in Anaheim any time soon). This has huge implications for the division – the Angels finished 10 games out in 2011, with Wilson producing a WAR of 5.9. Move those 6 wins off the Rangers and put even half of them on the Angels, and you have yourself an awfully tight race.
But there are rather large implications for fantasy owners, as well. Wilson’s ERA, WHIP, K, and Wins — the traditional Roto stats — will all be impacted by the move, as will stats like HR, 2B, 3B, and BB, which impact many leagues, including most ottoneu leagues. There are a few things a fantasy player should look at in evaluating this type of change, and Wilson to LAA presents a unique change where some of the changing factors are easier than normal to isolate. Of course most of you can probably predict that a move to Anaheim will help Wilson’s value, but that isn’t really the point — this is also a chance to look at how to evaluate the impact of a scenery change on a pitcher.
When it gets down to the final few rounds of your draft or those last couple of auction dollars, you need to make some smart decisions. Keeper league owners usually drift towards the minor league hopefuls that could make an impact either this year or next, but for re-draft leagues, it’s about winning now. Sure, you could take a chance on a prospect and hope to get a second half call-up, but obviously there are no guarantees and the player could be waiver fodder by mid-season, rendering the pick a waste. You might be better served sifting through some of the major league rosters and finding yourself a couple of utility players who could realistically end up with extra playing time. It happens almost every year, and the value that some of these guys produce by year’s end could be the difference between a championship squad and an “also-ran”.
You might remember that I’d previously promised a more in-depth look at the Houston Astros’ minor league system, one that is overflowing with uber-talented, can’t-miss studs.* And I’m one to make good on my promises.
*Gotcha: It’s opposite day.
Having already listed the team’s Top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and pointed out how the move to the AL in 2013 will impact NL-only keeper owners immediately, let’s check into the org’s prospects who could make their debuts in 2012 — and maybe even make an impact — and those who are the best bets for future value once the franchise is in the American League.
Justin Verlander had himself a fine season, you may have heard. The first pitcher to win both the MVP and the Cy in about a quarter-century, he combined superlative peripherals with just a little bit of luck and the backing of a strong team to produce a season for the ages. He probably won his owners many a fantasy league. From personal experience, each team of mine that featured the Tigers’ ace won its’ league this year.
That’s all fine and good, but you shouldn’t draft Verlander next year. Focus instead on finding the next Verlander.
As we sit and wait for all the big-named free agents to find themselves new homes, it’s time to start thinking about strategy for next year. There are numerous of ways to go about drafting your team and you’re going to hear plenty of do’s and don’ts from a variety of people. So allow me to chime in here first and tell you why punting saves should not be in your plans when developing a proper draft strategy. Some people see no harm in it and tell you to just bulk up elsewhere. I disagree. It’s an automatic concession of points to your competition and immediately puts you at a disadvantage.
A while ago, I ranked 2B according to their possible 2012 return using the Bill James Projections. There was some discussion in the comments on how detrimental it is to have a low AVG and SB number with a power hitter. I have decided to rank some 2B ‘roto style’ to help show how players that only have value in RBIs, Runs and HRs can be a drag on a team.
Over the last week or so we’ve done plenty of articles discussing the impending move of the Houston Astros to the American League and how it will impact those in the fantasy baseball community. But no matter how many times we attempt to look on the bright side and find the silver lining in it all, there’s one common thing that seems to come through in every piece. It’s like that early montage in the movie Major League where the Indians’ fan base is looking at their 40 man roster in disbelief — from some guy asking who Mitchell Friedman is to the groundskeepers’ claims that “these guys are sh*tty”. There’s almost no love for the 2012 Astros and very little hope for the club moving forward. However, just like the old fantasy adage (is there such a thing?) that states that even closers on bad teams can be good and helpful, the same can be said about everyday players from Houston. Just because the team is in relative shambles, doesn’t mean that you can’t find some helpful players at a bargain cost.
On Monday, I looked at which players showed an increase in their batted ball distances from 2010 to 2011. Not all increases can be seen in the year to year data. Some changes begin to occur during the season like with Jose Bautista and Curtis Granderson in the past couple of years. Here is a look at some players that may be turning their game around for the better
