In the (very, very early) Rotographs mockdraft on Sunday night, Bryce Harper went in the third round. Dustin Ackley went in the fourth. Neither of these players has a Major League track record – Harper doesn’t even have a strong track record in Double-A – yet they went before Matt Holliday or Ben Zobrist, both of whom have solid track records and seem quite likely to outperform the youngsters this year.

Now, this is a dynasty league draft, and clearly having that youth on your roster will pay off in future seasons. But the focus on youth in these drafts leaves some great values on the board much later than you’d expect.

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Last Sunday night a few of the Fangraph writers participated in a Mock Dynasty Draft. Today, I am going to give my thoughts on the 2B taken in the draft.

R1 P7 – Robinson Cano
R1 P12 – Dustin Pedroia
R2 P11 – Ian Kinsler

These 3 are the top 2B in the league. Personally, I would take Pedroia and Kinsler over Cano based on the SB potential.

R4 P5 – Dustin Ackley

The pick of Ackley was too high IMO for a few reasons. First, I think there were better established players still on the board from other positions like Mark Teixeira and Adrian Beltre. If, a person wanted to go the prospect/youth route Hosmer, Strasburg and Posey were still available. Also, Ackley seems to have limited potential and some 2B picked below him are probably producing at or above his peak.

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Chris Parmelee

Chris Parmelee started 20 of the last 21 at 1B for the 2011 Twins by filling in for the injured Justin Morneau (55 games at 1B) and Joe Mauer (16 games at 1B). Both Morneau and Mauer are huge injury risks for the 2012 season and have a good chance to end up on the DL at some point during the season. Chris Parmelee looks like, for now, he will be the backup 1B going into the season with Michael Cuddyer still a free agent.

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Tracking average draft position (ADP) can be an incredibly useful tool in preparing for your upcoming fantasy drafts.  It’s most helpful in standard snake-style drafts as you’re able to see, on average, where a particular player is taken; whether you can wait a few rounds to grab him or if you have to act quicker than you thought to pick him up.  Obviously it’s less helpful if you’re in an auction, but it does help you see which players are, for the most part, off people’s radars and can be stolen late in your auction for a cheaper price tag.

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Last night, the RotoGraphs crew got together and conducted our first mock draft of the season. The draft, held at Mock Draft Central, was a standard 5X5 keeper/dynasty league draft. Rosters requirements were as follows: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 5 OF, CI, MI, UTIL, 9 P, 5 BENCH. Throughout the week, we’ll have articles analyzing the draft. I’ll kick things off with my thoughts about the first couple of rounds.

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We FanGraphers decided we couldn’t wait any longer. Why wait until March when you could draft NOW?! Not only did we mock it up last night, but we assumed a keeper league. WOAH. We gathered 12 of our most intelligent, hilarious and handsome writers, used standard roster sizes minus one catcher and drafted five reserves. I know you are dying to find out how the action unfolded, but before I begin the process of unveiling the winning team (mine, obviously), I will share my keeper league philosophy/strategy for the draft.

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C.J. Wilson is headed from the 2011 American League Champs to the 2011 American League West Division Runners-up (somehow, I don’t think they will be raising that last banner in Anaheim any time soon). This has huge implications for the division – the Angels finished 10 games out in 2011, with Wilson producing a WAR of 5.9. Move those 6 wins off the Rangers and put even half of them on the Angels, and you have yourself an awfully tight race.

But there are rather large implications for fantasy owners, as well. Wilson’s ERA, WHIP, K, and Wins — the traditional Roto stats — will all be impacted by the move, as will stats like HR, 2B, 3B, and BB, which impact many leagues, including most ottoneu leagues. There are a few things a fantasy player should look at in evaluating this type of change, and Wilson to LAA presents a unique change where some of the changing factors are easier than normal to isolate. Of course most of you can probably predict that a move to Anaheim will help Wilson’s value, but that isn’t really the point — this is also a chance to look at how to evaluate the impact of a scenery change on a pitcher.

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When it gets down to the final few rounds of your draft or those last couple of auction dollars, you need to make some smart decisions.  Keeper league owners usually drift towards the minor league hopefuls that could make an impact either this year or next, but for re-draft leagues, it’s about winning now.  Sure, you could take a chance on a prospect and hope to get a second half call-up, but obviously there are no guarantees and the player could be waiver fodder by mid-season, rendering the pick a waste.  You might be better served sifting through some of the major league rosters and finding yourself a couple of utility players who could realistically end up with extra playing time.  It happens almost every year, and the value that some of these guys produce by year’s end could be the difference between a championship squad and an “also-ran”.

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You might remember that I’d previously promised a more in-depth look at the Houston Astros’ minor league system, one that is overflowing with uber-talented, can’t-miss studs.* And I’m one to make good on my promises.
*Gotcha: It’s opposite day.

Having already listed the team’s Top 10 prospects (per Baseball America) and pointed out how the move to the AL in 2013 will impact NL-only keeper owners immediately, let’s check into the org’s prospects who could make their debuts in 2012 — and maybe even make an impact — and those who are the best bets for future value once the franchise is in the American League.

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Justin Verlander had himself a fine season, you may have heard. The first pitcher to win both the MVP and the Cy in about a quarter-century, he combined superlative peripherals with just a little bit of luck and the backing of a strong team to produce a season for the ages. He probably won his owners many a fantasy league. From personal experience, each team of mine that featured the Tigers’ ace won its’ league this year.

That’s all fine and good, but you shouldn’t draft Verlander next year. Focus instead on finding the next Verlander.

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