A few days ago, I looked at the effects the shift may be having on players using the difference between their BABIP and xBABIP. The observed drop in a player’s BABIP, compared to their xBABIP, was 41 points. As reader phoenix2042 pointed out, I was using a dated formula for xBABIP. By using an updated xBABIP formula, I still found a difference, but not as much of one.
In the original ottoneu league, the weeks following the amateur draft tend to be among the most active. As contracts are signed, draftees become roster-eligible and teams – particularly those that are out of the running for this year – begin the process of stocking their farm system with newly minted millionaires.
This year, Carlos Correa was already auctioned in that league, going for an impressive $6. Not only that, but half the league bid on him and four of the bids were for $5 or $6. All for a 17-year-old. The kid has a ton of potential, and may very well be the second coming of Alex Rodriguez. But I didn’t enter a bid.
You may recall that a month into the season, I was embarrassing myself in the LABR mixed league. Despite going offense heavy during the draft and being questioned about my pitching staff, my team simply wasn’t hitting. My pitching was performing better, but not nearly good enough to offset the atrocities at the plate. Well, a month later, things have improved. Not a whole lot, mind you, but better times indeed.
After generating quite a bit of hype this preseason with the addition of Prince Fielder, Detroit looked to have a fairly potent offense this year. That offense has not materialized yet. Here are some of my thoughts on their struggling lineup.
More than a month into the season, we are in full-fledged buy low and sell high mode. Though I always say it is much harder to execute these trades than all the fantasy advice articles you read will have you believe, it is still worth making an attempt. Today, I won’t be writing your standard buy low post, but rather analyze several pitchers who have been disappointments thus far and look at the reasons why you should buy low and why you may want to pass. Hopefully, we can then come to a verdict.
Last season, I drank the Adam Dunn Kool-Aid. He was coming over from the the National League. He would likely be in the lineup everyday, even if hurt, with the option of the D.H in the AL. What could go wrong? Pretty much everything. It couldn’t happen again I figured, so this season I drank the Albert Pujols flavored Kool-Aid. With him getting up in the years, he would be able to get a rest from fielding, DH a bit, continue hitting, win the MVP, and most importantly, lead my fantasy team to a title. Yea … that is not happening.
It seems like just yesterday we were talking small sample sizes and trying not to panic about our fantasy teams sitting in 9th place. Or some of us were assuming our early season success was a mirage, masking what was sure to be a brutal year. But now we are coming up on the quarter pole, and it’s no longer time to make cheap excuses.
For ottoneu owners, it is time to evaluate our teams, identify our weaknesses, figure out where we have depth, and decide if this is the year to make a move.
Every season starts with stories of how pitchers are losing fastball velocity. While pitchers that lose velocity fill the headlines, a few actually see a velocity spike. A velocity spike is great for a pitcher because it usually means better performance and less time on the DL during that season.
Even though we are over a month into the season, a hitter’s BABIP and resulting batting average are still rather meaningless. In fact, neither statistic stabilizes within 550 plate appearances. That means that it has little predictive value at this point and should have limited weight when evaluating a player now. Therefore, hitters with extremely high or low BABIPs should potentially be looked at as trade bait or acquisition targets, respectively. Let’s first look at the possible targets, or those with abnormally low BABIP marks.
I spent the last nine days in a baseball-less haze, wandering the fjords of Norway and promising my wife (as those of us with significant others have to do from time to time) that fantasy baseball would not interrupt our vacation the way it does many (okay, okay…all) of our other nights. Sadly, the commissioners of my leagues did not agree to my recommended “everyone takes a hiatus and stats don’t count this week because Chad is out of the country” rule.
Baseball is Summer and Summer is a heavy time for vacationing, which means that most owners will, at some point, have to go a few days without maniacally checking their rosters on a daily basis. How do you go about doing this without suffering a free fall in the standings?
