So, Wednesday didn’t quite go as planned, but it was still a moderately successful day. I took a small shot at Aaron Harang, and he subsequently threw 6.2 innings of shutout baseball. I also recommended two Tigers – Miguel Cabrera and Ian Kinsler – because Jason Vargas usually fairs poorly against righties. Kinsler performed well, but other than his home run Vargas outperformed my expectations. Baseball is as unpredictable as ever and I, for one, am glad to see its wonky ways are back in my life.

Read the rest of this entry »

On the third day of the season, we’re graced with some fantastic matchups. After two days filled with pitching studs, we’re making our first pass into pitchers that we can expect to give up runs at a higher clip. So long, Justin Verlander. Hello, Aaron Harang.

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t necessarily agree with all of the conclusions that Mike Podhorzer came to about the closers in Milwaukee and Chicago earlier today, but his writeup makes sense, and it is still notable what’s happening in those cities. The fireballing favorite was passed over for a couple of veterans. That’s too bad because the only thing I’ve seen that says much about closer change is fastball velocity and strikeout rate. Neither Matt Lindstrom nor Francisco Rodriguez own real leads over Nate Jones and Jim Henderson in those categories. And yet, it’s the veterans with more service time that are closing right now.

Maybe that’s not by accident. Matt Murphy wrote a great piece about how it’s possible that teams are using veteran closers on short term contracts in order to keep their arbitration-eligible young relievers cheap. No saves means no bucks in arbitration. Whether or not teams are actually doing so on purpose, there are ready examples in Oakland, Cleveland, and Tampa Bay (and now Chicago and Milwaukee) where the arbitration kid lost out to the free agent contract vet. Should we add age to the equation when we are thinking about closer changes?

Read the rest of this entry »

You know, I can advocate for different types of leagues. I can talk about the pros and cons of head-to-head, and how redraft leagues are great for the refresh, and about deep leagues and shallow leagues. It’s my job!

But when it comes to playing, to the leagues I actually join, the rubber hits the road. In other words, I vote with my wallet when I join these leagues, because I’m spending actual time and energy in this way. So I thought I’d look through my leagues and see what kinds of leagues I like. And while I’m there, I might as well count up my pitchers so you can see what sorts of arms I’m investing in. My arms and my leagues, and now you know what I *really* like.

Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Podhorzer wrote about the $9 pitching staff yesterday, which was coincidental because I had just finished two expert drafts in which I punted starting pitching. The leagues in question are the FOX Sports Expert League and Blog Wars. The drafts and formats differ, so it’s a little surprising that my strategy barely changed. Both leagues do allow streaming, which makes it easier to under-draft starters.

I’ve used my drafts and mocks to offer lessons learned throughout the draft season. We’re at the point where it’s probably too late to do any major learning. In presenting these rosters and draft strategies, I’m only aiming to give you a look under the hood. I hope you find something actionable.

Read the rest of this entry »

Platooning a left-hander and a right-hander is a fairly common practice for major league teams, but utilizing platoon partners on your fantasy team isn’t the best way to take advantage of platoon splits. This may seem super obvious to you, but it’s better to use two lefties on separate teams who are used as platoon players as opposed to using two players who are platoon partners on the same team. In other words it’s better to go with Matt Joyce and Daniel Nava than it is to go with Nava and Jonny Gomes. Read the rest of this entry »

A couple weeks ago, Jeff Zimmerman wrote about how speed affects ISO for The Hardball Times. The takeaway was that for each additional point in speed score (a stat we carry here on FanGraphs), a player’s ISO on doubles and triples will increase five points (.005). Incidentally, running quickly can’t effect home run ISO, unless we’re talking about those super rate inside the park types. Here’s the article and here’s a table from the article.

Read the rest of this entry »

Do any of you use fielding in your fantasy leagues? No. If by some fluke that’s incorrect, the stat being used is something asinine like errors. So it’s not surprising that we utterly ignore fielding when it comes to fantasy baseball analysis.

Major league teams are not ignoring fielding. When it comes to building a competitive roster, they’re relying on fielding more and more – especially teams like the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics. Those teams are using fielding values to set playing time, and while fielding is meaningless to fantasy owners, playing time is potentially the most important stat (even though it’s not directly counted). Out there, lurking in your player universe, are guys with solid hitting stats and terrible fielding numbers. In some cases, real world teams will catch on and use a defensive replacement or more-than-occasionally sit the bat-first player.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, we looked at the elite pitches when it came to whiff rates. Today, we’ll look at things a bit differently. The following pitchers rated highly by swinging strike rate across multiple offspeed pitches. You might notice a certain deficiency in the group. Not a lot of great fastballs! As always, here are the benchmarks for each pitch type.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, Howard Bender wrote about trade bullies, which kicked up some good discussion in the comments. Whereas Bender was categorically against trade bullying, I’m all for manipulating your rivals. After all, they’re “rivals.” They exist solely to be defeated through any means necessary. They’re also probably your friends, family, and co-workers, so try not to get carried away.

Read the rest of this entry »