Do you play in a deep dynasty league? Perhaps you’ve noticed something. Judging by your rival’s (and perhaps your own) behavior, it often feels like the point of the game isn’t to win the league. Instead, it’s a race to the bottom to see which owner can compile the youngest roster with the most “value.” While value can win leagues, first one must convert that value into production.

This race to the bottom mentality can make it easier to contend than rebuild. As most of your rivals fight for every scrap of youth, fringy prospects may return legitimately decent major league performers. This process of cycling iffy minor leaguers for established veterans can help to extend a competitive window for many years.

Read the rest of this entry »

When last we met practically a year ago (ahem, December 19), we discussed trade negotiations – specifically one of my standard processes. Although I think a forthright and (semi) honest conversation is the surest approach to building a mutually beneficial swap, not everybody likes the way I conduct my trade talks. Common complaints include that I’m asking the other owner to do all the work while giving up their leverage.

To the former point, um, no. To the latter point, also no.

Read the rest of this entry »

Now that we’ve hit the holidays and fantasy owners may be staring at a couple of four-day weekends so it might be time to cozy up with your favorite e-reader and bang out the 200+ pages of The Process. As memorable and life-altering as bowl games sponsored by credit unions, auto parts stores, and baked cheese crackers can be, this is a great time of year to take on such a project.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I spent a decent chunk of my afternoon arguing with another writer on Twitter about trade etiquette. A part of me wonders why I engage in these online debates. In some ways, it’s very natural. As a teenager, arguing in an online baseball forum is how I developed the writing skills I need for my trade. Arguing online is almost a compulsion reinforced over half my life.

In other ways, have you ever stopped to wonder how weird it is to use the incredibly advanced technology of the internet to seek out and engage in an argument with a stranger? So weird, right? I don’t go around eavesdropping on people in Target, waiting for a hot take with which I disagree. Although… that sounds like a fun YouTube series.

Anyway, I digress. Today we’re going to discuss my standard process for engaging in trade negotiations. I find this is the easiest way for everybody to get what they want in a minimal amount of time. Some of you may disagree. That’s fine. I don’t understand it, but that’s fine.

Read the rest of this entry »

On Tuesday, I let slip a little secret I’ve been nursing for a few months – namely that replacement level middle infielders appear to be one WAR players. The incongruity of that statement – that replacement level equals one – has led to some public misadventures in player analysis. That’s a real world problem.

From a fantasy perspective, my conclusion was simple: don’t go out of your way to draft middle infielders. For somebody completely new to fantasy baseball, that seems like a big ol’ DUH! However, for most of my life, fantasy gospel stated that middle infield is scarce and therefore production up the middle is worth more than the same production at another position. Now it has flipped, although not enough to bother over-drafting other positions.

My advice for 2019: draft the best statistical fits for your roster. Don’t worry about position. And for Ruth’s sake, don’t worry about catchers. Now, let’s peek at replacement level for catcher, first base, and third base.

Read the rest of this entry »

For fantasy junkies like me – and probably you – deep keeper and dynasty leagues are the zenith of modern civilization. I’m not here to extol their virtues. It suffices to say that they scratch a certain itch – the one you had as a kid when you were daydreaming about running your own major league club.

These deep formats also have something in common. No matter what, somebody is eventually going to make a horrific-looking trade. However, the way a trade looks on paper can be deceptive. Yesterday, the Cardinals traded a lot for Paul Goldschmidt. Some (ahem, me) might say they dealt too much. They also unmistakably improved their 2019 roster in a way that only minimally weakens their future chances at winning. It’s important to consider how a deal affects competition.

Another consideration is that apparently lopsided trades still work out in the “losing” owner’s favor pretty frequently. I’m going to make up some numbers now. Based on all the trades I’ve seen that are widely panned as unfair but also aren’t clearly unconscionable, I estimate somewhere between 35 to 40 percent of them ultimately favor the loser. From my perspective, the crowds aren’t very wise. So, even though your rival probably gotten more in a sketchy looking swap, it doesn’t mean they’re totally screwed. This is akin to winning a hand of Texas Hold ‘Em after being behind on the flop. It happens all the time.

So, the lede is thoroughly buried. Now why are we here again? To talk about unconscionable trades and the immediate steps a good commissioner should take. While the design of a league should encourage trading – negotiations are half the fun! – too many terrible trades can be ruinous.

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday, I got into a bit of a Twitter tiff about the relative values of Jean Segura and Carlos Santana. My position was that they were secretly much closer in value than people realized. And to make that argument, it was necessary to unveil one of my secrets.

In short, the major league replacement level for shortstops is either 1 WAR (Freddy Galvis, Miguel Rojas, and Jordy Mercer) or 0.5 WAR over half a season (Ehire Adrianza, J.T. Riddle, and Adeiny Hechavarria). So basically, scrubby shortstops produce at a one win pace.

The same analysis for second baseman reveals a comparable one win pace as replacement level. This is further reinforced by the release of Cory Spangenberg by the Padres. He produced 0.6 WAR over 329 plate appearances, yet San Diego clearly believed he had neither a place on their roster nor enough trade value to waste time on the phones. Sounds like he got the replacement level treatment.

Surely this has fantasy implications too.

Read the rest of this entry »

Back in December of 2013, in one of my earliest appearances on this site, I pontificated about how to value your last roster spot. I spent… oh my… 1,482 words on a topic that is indisputably of marginal importance. For most fantasy formats, the last player on your roster is incredibly fluid and has a minimal effect. Let’s critique this old behemoth of a post.

Read the rest of this entry »

We have a somewhat controversial topic on the docket for today’s Fantasy Baseball Strategy 204 session: is it better to have an accurate or unique approach to player valuation? If you read the title, you’ll notice I’ve already led with the lede. I regularly advocate for taking the path least traveled by your rivals. Whether that requires a zig, a zag, or some other three-letter nonsense, it’s so much easier to create value when you aren’t competing for the same resources in the same way.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Process is done. After months of writing and disagreements, the fantasy baseball guide I wrote with Tanner Bell is for sale. Simply, we researched and created the guide we would want. It’s not going to contain player capsules or positional rankings. Dozens of sources provide them. Instead, it’s going to give the reader the ability to create their own and the 2017 NFBC Main Event Champion and my podcast mate, Rob Silver wasn’t happy about the end results as he states in his intro.

Jeff Zimmerman and Tanner Bell are both awful people.

Thanks Rob. Before Rob gets to explain himself, here is the general flow of he book.

Read the rest of this entry »