Category: Strategy | Page 29 | RotoGraphs Fantasy Baseball

Beat the Shift Podcast – Auction Strategy Episode w/ Derek VanRiper

by Ariel Cohen

February 19, 2021

The Auction Strategy Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Derek VanRiper

Strategy Section

Auction Strategy
- How Snake Drafts & Auctions differ in preparation.
- Constructing Auction Values
  - Should you strictly hold to values?
  - What to use as a Hitter/Pitcher % split?
- Generating Market Values
- Nomination Strategies
  - General – It has to have a purpose.
  - Should you nominate players you want to buy, or players that you believe are overvalued?
  - The Economic Box
- Bidding
  - Starting Bids
  - Jump Bids
  - Price Enforcing
  - The ‘9’s
- Draft Inflation

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode (Part II) w/ Nick Pollack

by Ariel Cohen

February 12, 2021

The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part II) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Nick Pollack

Strategy Section

Simple analytics vs. advanced analytics.
Offseason information – what is noise, what is real?
Blind spots of projections for pitchers.
2021 Season
- 6-man roations
- Starting pitcher inning limits
- The Tampa Bay Rays
- What if the season is delayed?
- Ramp-up from 2020 short season

Starting Pitcher Strategy

General strategy
Pitchers that we would more likely roster in auctions vs. snake drafts (& vice versa).

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Inter-Projection Volatility & The ATC Projections

by Ariel Cohen

February 11, 2021

The 2021 ATC Projections have arrived at FanGraphs!

The Average Total Cost projection system (ATC) gets its name from the fact that it “averages” many other projection systems together. ATC also happens to be my initials.

ATC is a “smart” projection aggregation model. While most other aggregation systems typically apply equal weight to all underlying data sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. The method is similar to what Nate Silver does with his political forecasting at www.fivethirtyeight.com. Read more about how ATC works in last year’s introductory ATC article.

ATC’s advanced methods have paid off. Last year, FantasyPros ranked ATC as the most accurate baseball projections, even more accurate than their own. Annually, I conduct my own projections review using a game theory method, which has consistently shown that ATC has outperformed other projections. You can read the results of last year’s study here.

Starting this year, ATC will include three new volatility metrics to be described later in this article. Aside from introducing the concepts behind these new metrics, we will also discuss how a fantasy manager might use them in practice.

First, let’s quickly remind everyone on where to find the ATC projections at FanGraphs.

Viewing ATC

There are currently three ways to view and utilize the ATC projections on the site.

Full Projections
Individual Player Pages
Auction Calculator

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Beat the Shift Podcast – Middle Infield Episode w/ Rick Wolf

by Ariel Cohen

February 5, 2021

The Middle Infield Episode of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Rick Wolf

Strategy Section

Fantasy Baseball Partners
- Advantages & Disadvantages
- What makes a good partnership?
- How to divide up tasks & responsibilities.

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High IP/GS Pitchers to Target in Ottoneu H2H Leagues

by Chad Young

February 4, 2021

In a previous post, we looked at Ottoneu head-to-head (H2H) leagues and how starting pitching values shift due to different rules. Because season-long points leagues use an innings-pitched cap, innings pitched are the scarce resource you expend (and need to maximize) during the season, putting a premium on SP who post high points per IP. But because H2H leagues use a games-started-per-week cap instead of IP, IP are no longer a scarce resource and the premium is on pitchers who score a high number of points per start, regardless of their points per IP. Today, we’ll see if we can identify pitchers to target or avoid based on that.
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The Impact of Games Started vs. Innings Pitched Caps in Ottoneu H2H

by Chad Young

February 2, 2021

The standard pitching metric of production in Ottoneu points leagues is points per inning pitched. With a 1500 IP cap, innings are currency and you need to maximize the return for every inning pitched. But in head-to-head leagues, innings are no longer the scarce resource managers have to manage. Instead, each team can throw an unlimited number of innings, but there’s a limit on games started per week. For Ottoneu head-to-head, or any other league with a games-started cap for pitchers, the pitching metric that matters for SP is not points per inning pitched, but points per game started. And that can swing values. The question is, how much does it matter?
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Beat the Shift Podcast – Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) w/ Paul Sporer

by Ariel Cohen

January 29, 2021

The Starting Pitcher Episode (Part I) of the Beat the Shift Podcast – a baseball podcast for fantasy baseball players.

Guest: Paul Sporer

Strategy Section

How many pitchers will throw 200 innings in 2021?
Pitcher ramp up from the 2020 short season.
Pitchers returning from injury (Chris Sale / Noah Syndergaard / Luis Severino)
- How do you project innings for 2021?
- How do you assess their fantasy value?
- What leagues are these players more (or less) valuable?
Super Elite Pitchers (Jacob deGrom / Gerrit Cole / Shane Bieber)
- How far should the trio be pushed up in drafts?
- Which hitters should be drafted ahead of the super elite starters?
  - Does the format make a difference?
Pitching Strategy in 2021 – Snake Drafts vs. Auctions